jonathan J Miles

Chicago born and raised SoCal transplant. Trend following + premium selling makes for a great portfolio.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one.

Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the only asset class that wins on both sides.

The structural case for commodities has been turbo charged. Underinvestment, deglobalization and electrification all pushing markets like diesel cracks and copper to new highs.

Meanwhile the chokepoints are increasing, from Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Rhine, the Panama Canal, the Black Sea grain corridor and Russian refining capacity. It is becoming increasingly apparent that not a single one of those is reachable by anything in Washington's toolkit whether it be caused by war or weather.

The illusion of abundance is likely behind us. I said as much on CNBC this Monday, and I got long gold, silver and agriculture last week.

Ten points for you to consider. (1/11)

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

Not a Spencer fan but socialism is not the answer. It is the beginning of the end of what makes America great. What we need is great access to opportunity, not redistribution by the government. More equity ownership. More profit participation. Give upside!

[Dr. Clown, PhD @DrClownPhD]

This is so true... 🥲

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

@UrbanKaoboy I’m with you. Buying more with a $4 handle. Complexity + Fear = Opportunity

[Finsee @Finsee_main]

$ECC Q4 2025 earnings: Income Thesis Broken: Dividend Slashed 57% Amid NAV Collapse

The high-yield thesis for Eagle Point Credit Company faced a reckoning in Q4. Management slashed the monthly distribution by 57% (from $0.14 to $0.06), signaling an end to the 'steady cash flow' narrative that sustained the stock through prior volatility. While recurring cash flows of $0.61 per share technically covered the old payout ($0.42), the Company chose to retain capital to stem a severe NAV bleed—NAV plummeted 19% sequentially to $5.70. With realized losses mounting ($0.40/share) and a shift in strategy toward 'total return' over income, ECC is undergoing a painful structural reset.

Full article with charts https://t.co/kt8W5oLIjp

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

@aigonewrong @VolSignals I think you got it. IMHO Dealers affect price on the margin intra-day with real money flows driving trends and longer timeframes. But their hedging activity influences whether intraday day moves will trend or mean revert.

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

Definitely see the potential value for day traders to help see when and index might really move or stay range bound.

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

SPX DEALER GAMMA
[How to understand it and use it in your trading]

Last week, average dealer gamma was +$7.9bn, according to Bank of America

Let's break down what this means, bring the number down to earth- and explore how to use it in your own trading approach >>

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

This is what I feel like too…

[Colin Wright @SwipeWright]

This cartoon I made offers a rough outline of my recent political "journey" that I've been on while standing completely still.

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

https://t.co/uLCEU0YBET

[Kevin Kiley @KevinKileyCA]

Newsom has announced a $348.9 billion budget. That's $147.5 billion larger than when he took office, a 73.2% increase. Spending has grown 2.5 faster than the rate of inflation. This isn't normal, even for blue states.

The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst says the budget is "alarming" and raises "serious concerns about the state’s fiscal sustainability."

Meanwhile, the state's infrastructure and schools remain subpar, cost of living is higher than anywhere, and we lead the nation in unemployment, homelessness, and poverty.

[Tom Joseph @TomJChicago]

The Minneapolis shooting was a murder. Watch closely

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

@Mishi_2210 1050
500/0.5+50

[Jared Kubin @JaredKubin]

Everyone's sharing that "Long Degeneracy" article and nominating it for article of the year with 20m views. I just got around to reading it…overall, I get it. It's well written, emotionally resonant, and captures something real about generational anxiety. I like the author, I subscribe to their stuff… talented Quant.

But nobody's pushing back, so let me while I watch my kids at the pool.

My main pushback is this: the article is a suicide note dressed up as investment advice. I REFUSE to hand my agency to "the house." The moment you accept "the game is rigged so I might as well gamble," you've surrendered. You've quit on the process that actually works because someone convinced you it doesn't. There are no easy buttons. No shortcuts. No magic money options. There is only learning, sacrifice, and continual grit.

It tells a generation they're prisoners. Then it sells them a lottery ticket and calls it freedom. Then it tells YOU to invest in the prison.

That's not analysis. That's despair with a ticker symbol.

The author spends 2000 words empathizing with young people as "prisoners" trapped by a broken economy… then tells you to invest in the platforms extracting fees from their desperation. "Long Coinbase, long DraftKings, long the casinos."

Read that again. The thesis is: a generation is so economically desperate they're turning to gambling, most will lose, and YOU should profit by owning the house.

You can't weep for the prisoners and then sell shares in the prison. Pick one.

4 points I want to make....

Pushback 1: "Closed" is doing a lot of work
The claim that traditional wealth building is "closed, not difficult" is asserted, not proven. The boomer vs millennial wealth stat is misleading… it compares 65 year olds to 35 year olds. Of course boomers hold more wealth. They've been alive longer.

Housing is brutal in coastal cities. But median home prices in most US metros are still accessible to dual income households. "Wages up 8% while housing doubled" has no timeframe and cherry picks the comparison. Real wages post 2020 have actually grown.

Is it harder than it was? Yes. Is the game "fundamentally broken"? That's a much bigger claim requiring a much longer discussion.

Pushback 2: Negative EV doesn't become rational just because you feel stuck

The core logical move is: "if you're trapped anyway, a 5% chance of escape beats 100% certainty of stagnation."
But gambling doesn't leave you "still stuck." It makes most participants actively worse off. That 5% moonshot comes paired with a 95% chance of losing your savings, your rent money, your runway.

The author admits "most people lose" then hand waves it because gamblers "understand the odds." But understanding bad odds while taking them isn't rationality. It's emotional capitulation wearing economic language as a costume.
This isn't a generation finding a path out. It's a wealth transfer mechanism moving money FROM desperate young people TO platform operators.

Pushback 3: The article accidentally reveals the real problem

The author admits social media has "repositioned the zeroth line" so people earning $150k feel poor. Admits the algorithm ensures "you never feel like you've arrived." Admits basic needs are met and there's "cognitive bandwidth" for existential questions.

But wait. If the problem is FEELING trapped due to infinite upward comparison rather than BEING trapped… gambling doesn't fix that. You could 10x your net worth and the algorithm will still show you someone richer.

The "Maslow trap" section accidentally confesses: this generation isn't imprisoned. They're dissatisfied. These are different problems.

Pushback 4: I don’t have enough FAITH to live in a world without God

This is the part nobody wants to hear.

The entire thesis rests on a materialist assumption: your life's meaning is determined by your net worth, your house, your access to experiences. If you can't get those things, you're "imprisoned." If you can, you're "free."

That's spiritual poverty masquerading as economic analysis.
Jesus said it plain: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?" The author's answer is apparently "at least you beat the algorithm."

My BIGGEST problem with the article isn't economic. It's theological. It assumes the highest human need is "self actualization" through financial success. That Maslow's hierarchy is the truth about human nature. That if you can't afford the vacation and the house, you're missing what makes life worth living.

That's not wisdom. That's the prosperity gospel without the gospel. No thanks.

The reason this generation feels trapped isn't because housing costs went up. It's because they've been handed a worldview where meaning comes from consumption, identity comes from status, and hope is a betting slip. When you build your life on that foundation, of course you feel imprisoned. The cell is interior.

Real freedom isn't financial. It never was. The peace that passes understanding doesn't require a Polymarket account. Eternity is a LONG time.

So what's the alternative?

First: Exit the comparison machine. The author correctly identifies social media as manufacturing infinite dissatisfaction. The answer isn't to gamble your way to a moving target. It's to stop letting an algorithm define your "zeroth line." Your reference class should be your actual life, not curated highlights from 8 billion people. Delete the apps. Touch grass. Go to church. Give yourself to something BIGGER than your net worth.

Second: Skill acquisition still compounds. The article mocks "getting better at your job" as boomer advice. But the same young people pouring hours into memecoin research could pour those hours into skills that compound. The difference is skills don't have a house edge. Coding, sales, writing, trades… these translate into income whether the market is up or down. AI is changing which skills matter but it's not eliminating the returns to expertise. It's concentrating them.

Third: Asymmetric bets exist outside casinos. If you want convexity, build something. Start a business. Create content. Ship a product. The difference between entrepreneurship and gambling is you're building equity in something that can compound, not burning capital on negative EV.

Fourth: Anchor your identity somewhere the market can't touch. If your sense of self rises and falls with your portfolio, you're a slave. If your hope depends on a moonshot, you have no hope. The man who knows who he is in Christ doesn't need a 100x to feel like his life matters. He's already free. That's not copium. That's the only foundation that doesn't move.

The real trap

The article's framing is seductive because it offers absolution. You're not making bad decisions. You're rationally responding to a broken system. The house always wins but at least you're playing.

The framing IS the trap.

The economy is harder than it was. Housing costs are real. AI anxiety is real. But "harder" isn't "impossible," and the author's solution… becoming a customer of fee extracting platforms or an investor in them… doesn't help the people he claims to sympathize with.

It helps the house.

Here's what actually works.
-Wake up early. Get after it. Be Relentless.
-Spend less than you earn. No excuses.
-Acquire skills that compound. Every single day. Stack them.
-Build things you own. Equity, not lottery tickets.
-Get your body right. Discipline starts physical.
-Get your soul right with the Lord. My closeness with the Lord has grown MORE in trials and tribulations than any fancy car.
-Exit the comparison machine. The algorithm is not your friend. It's your enemy.
-Find your people. Real ones. In person. Build a family. Build a group you trust.
-Serve something bigger than yourself.
-Pray. Not as a last resort. As a first principle. Daily.
-The path is painful. The path is boring. The path requires years of work that nobody will clap for.

But it's the path that works.

The casinos will keep taking their vig. The gurus will keep selling hope. The algorithms will keep showing you what you don't have.

Let them.
You are not a prisoner. You are not a degenerate. You are not a customer.

You are a free human being with a soul that matters and a life to build.

So build it through active faith, aggressive patience, and a mindset geared towards eternity and not your bank account.

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

@Jindo_1307979 51181? Move top and bottom of zero to make a 1 on the right. 0 becomes 1 1.

[Rock Chartrand @RockChartrand]

Capitalism doesn’t assume humans aren’t greedy. It assumes they are and refuses to give them power over others.

That’s the point.

Greed under capitalism is constrained by consent. You only get richer by offering something others voluntarily choose to pay for. If you stop providing value, the money stops.

Greed under collectivism is unconstrained. It’s backed by force. You get resources whether you create value or not, so long as you can moralize need or capture political power.

Also, capitalism doesn’t pit competition against cooperation. Competition is how we discover who can cooperate best. Every successful business is a massive act of cooperation with customers, workers, suppliers, and investors. It just isn’t coerced cooperation.

And the claim that capitalists never give back is empirically false. Private charity, philanthropy, reinvestment, and voluntary aid explode under capitalist systems and collapse under socialist ones.

What you’re really saying is this:

You don’t trust individuals to choose generosity. You trust the state to enforce it.

That isn’t moral. It’s just replacing voluntary cooperation with compulsory obedience.

[Steve McGuire @sfmcguire79]

Ezra Klein on Charlie Kirk:

“You can dislike much of what Kirk believed and the following statement is still true: Kirk was practicing politics in exactly the right way. He was showing up to campuses and talking with anyone who would talk to him. He was one of the era’s most effective practitioners of persuasion. When the left thought its hold on the hearts and minds of college students was nearly absolute, Kirk showed up again and again to break it. Slowly, then all at once, he did. College-age voters shifted sharply right in the 2024 election.

“That was not all Kirk’s doing, but he was central in laying the groundwork for it. I did not know Kirk and I am not the right person to eulogize him. But I envied what he built. A taste for disagreement is a virtue in a democracy. Liberalism could use more of his moxie and fearlessness. In the inaugural episode of his podcast, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California hosted Kirk, admitting that his son was a huge fan. What a testament to Kirk’s project.”

“Kirk and I were on different sides of most political arguments. We were on the same side on the continued possibility of American politics. It is supposed to be an argument, not a war; it is supposed to be won with words, not ended through bullets. I wanted Kirk to be safe for his sake, but I also wanted him to be safe for mine, and for the sake of our larger shared project. The same is true for Shapiro, for Hoffman, for Hortman, for Thompson, for Trump, for Pelosi, for Whitmer. We are all safe, or none of us are.”

[Ezra Klein @ezraklein]

In the last few years we've seen:

- The plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer
- The Storming of the Capitol and pipe bombs left at the RNC and DNC
- The break-in to kidnap Nancy Pelosi and the brutal on Paul Pelosi
- Multiple assassination attempts against Trump
- The assassination of Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and the shooting of on State Senator John Hoffman and his wife
- Luigi Mangione's assassination of Brian Thompson
- The assassination of Charlie Kirk

Political violence is contagious. It is spreading. It is not confined to one side or belief system. It should terrify us all.

The foundation of a free society is the ability to participate in it without fear of violence. Political violence is always an attack against us all. You have to be so blind not to see that.

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

@mindadapanda @dampedspring @grok what movie is this?

[jonathan J Miles @mrmilesil]

Needed this laugh today

[Shooter McGavin @ShooterMcGavin]

‘Dad Life’ is this years song of the Summer