18 weeks since the gold blow-off, gold is going through a normal rebasing period. Speculative interest moved on 12-18 weeks ago.
But this is remains a secular bull market, so we're looking at reaccumulation of long positions from underweight to overweight over the coming 4 months. The bull goes again in 2027.
Besides the gold Cycle count, the tell is Silver. It never holds up like this 5 months after a blowoff unless it's preparing for the next move. In a bull market silver advances via blowoff moves generally 12-24 months apart.
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Current Market Tide — 1/20 (9:53 AM)
$SPY: 683.48 • Vol: -123K • NCP: 31M • NCP (OTM): -42M • NPP: 13M • NPP (OTM): 49M
Overview
This is a reflexive bounce driven by short-term call buying, not a structural bullish shift.
Price has pushed higher off the lows, but the options structure remains conflicted. While headline call premium has flipped positive, the underlying positioning still shows defensive behavior dominating beneath the surface.
Aggregated call premium has rebounded to 31M, but OTM calls remain deeply negative at -42M. This tells us upside participation is concentrated in shorter-dated or closer-to-the-money contracts, not momentum or trend-building exposure. Institutions are not rebuilding upside leverage in size.
On the put side, aggregated put premium has expanded further to 13M, with OTM puts surging to 49M. This is a key signal. Downside protection is being aggressively chased even as price bounces. That combination reflects fear hedging into strength, not confidence.
Volume has eased slightly to -123K, but remains firmly negative. Selling pressure has slowed, not disappeared. Volume is still aligned with a defensive posture.
This is bearish structure with a tactical bounce, not trend repair.
Interpretation
Calls
• 31M NCP reflects short-term call buying
• -42M OTM calls shows momentum exposure still being sold
• No confirmation of sustained upside positioning
Puts
• 13M NPP confirms active downside hedging
• 49M OTM puts signals fear remains elevated
• Protection demand rising into the bounce
Volume Context
• -123K volume shows selling pressure persists
• Participation cooling, not reversing
• Premium and volume not aligned bullishly
SPY Price Structure
• Bounce occurring without call-side support
• Prior resistance still overhead
• Upside vulnerable to rejection
• Volatility remains elevated
Without OTM call recovery and volume confirmation, this bounce lacks durability.
Overall
The Market Tide is showing a countertrend bounce inside a bearish structure.
While call premium has turned positive, the continued collapse in OTM calls and the sharp rise in OTM put premium tell us this move is being met with defensive positioning, not confidence. Traders are hedging into strength, not chasing upside.
Until OTM calls stabilize and put demand meaningfully cools, this structure continues to favor selling into rallies, not chasing bounces.