Presto

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@BluffAndBuy @TheInsiderPaper LMFAO! That is funny shit!

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Canada banned American liquor first, yanked bourbon and California wine off provincial liquor-board shelves like it was contraband, slaps 200–300% tariffs on U.S. dairy the second it exceeds a tiny quota, and runs a banking system so tightly protected the Big Five treat a Chase branch like a foreign invasion. Then the PM announced Canada was “at war” because someone finally matched the energy.

After that they made a national production of emptying American goods off store shelves and booing the Star-Spangled Banner at soccer and hockey games. Very classy. Very “world’s nicest people.”

But sure, the real threat to civilization is that Americans might have to survive without a three-wheeled Can-Am assembled north of Buffalo.

The average Canadian is a Tim Hortons-fueled, weather-complaining, “sorry”-as-a-personality hostage negotiator. He’ll boycott Florida orange juice, lecture you about sovereignty, then still need the U.S. to buy three-quarters of what his country produces. Elbows up, eh. Just don’t ask him to actually put them down and compete.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Unverified dashboard, not a 13F.

Latest filing (6/30) had ~$5.7B long SNDK and ~$5.6B long MU. The Q1 put hedges were mostly gone by then. SSNLF/SKHY puts of that size aren’t in the public record, 13F option “value” is notional not P&L, and Q3 hasn’t even filed.

The July unwind is documented. These four put tickets are not.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@RockNRoLL_85 Yes.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Dear Canada,

Nobody said you can’t talk to China. Trump said don’t turn yourself into the loading dock so Beijing can walk Chinese EVs around U.S. tariffs and into the American market. That’s the actual quote: “Drop Off Port.” Not “how dare you shake Xi’s hand.”

There’s a difference between the United States hosting a state dinner (statue included, Elon included) from a position of size and leverage, and a country that sends three-quarters of its exports south suddenly deciding China is the more predictable partner. One of those meetings doesn’t rewrite the neighbour’s tariff wall. The other one tries to.

You can root for Canada all you want. Just don’t pretend the objection was “diplomacy is only allowed if you’re American.” The objection was “please don’t become the warehouse.” Ice hockey was mentioned later, but that part was optional.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Those 63%/100%/81% numbers are a magic trick. They’re shares of imports, not of what America actually uses. Canadian power is under 1% of U.S. consumption. “Nearly 100% of imported gas” is 100% of a sliver.

And with this year’s tariffs, even the sliver is heading to zero. The “you need us” line died first.

Canada’s GDP per capita just slipped under Mississippi. Response so far: double down. Bold strategy. Keep lecturing the customer.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Canada preparing for a U.S. invasion is like bringing a climate pledge to a knife fight. Carney spent a year “managing the tail risk” the only way a central banker knows how: he commissioned a briefing note, said ignoring it would be irresponsible, and called it strategy. For years Canada treated the NATO 2% target like a suggested tip. Now the plan is what — strongly worded letters, carbon tariffs on tanks, and Mark explaining liquidity risk to a carrier group? Relax, Mark. Nobody needs to invade. They can wait for Ottawa to finish the consultation.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Wishing you and your family strength and peace right now, Mike. Family comes first, and I hope you get the space you need to handle whatever you’re dealing with.

Thank you for still taking the time to share your thinking here — the context you give, even when it’s not the popular take, has always been valued. Take care of yourself.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Curious how many Americans actually believe that “Canada is a greater threat than Russia and China” clip after the Community Note pointed out it was just Trump saying Canada is the toughest trade partner, not a military one.

Meanwhile a surprising number of Canadians seem happy to share the version without the note. Almost like the anti-American framing was the feature, not the bug.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@PaulAndreola Americans respecting the Canadian National Anthem in Buffalo, NY. Disappointed to see so many hateful Canadians but I will always wish Canadians well. https://t.co/cXeSKB4Wh8

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Did a lot of business in Canada over the years. Met some genuinely great people up there. Polite, professional, easy to work with. Used to think the “sorry” stereotype was mostly charming.

Then I watched 20,000 fans at the Bell Centre in Montreal on February 15, 2025 drown out the U.S. National Anthem before Canada vs. USA. The PA announcer asked them to show respect. They booed it from the first note to the last.

Nothing says “closest ally and largest trading partner” quite like treating The Star-Spangled Banner like a heel entrance. Very “we’re not like those loud Americans” of them.

I still like plenty of individual Canadians. I just stopped confusing the country with the people I used to deal with. Turns out the national brand and the actual crowd can be two very different products.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@mwebster1971 @JimiHendrix @YouTube Zeppelified version https://t.co/ulLyaVXMBo

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@Kush__Patil Not collapsing. Growth is holding at 2–3% and jobs are still tight. The real risk is the slow squeeze: ~$2T deficit, Fed hiking again, inflation stuck near 3.7%. Fine on the surface, fragile underneath.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@SJosephBurns Drain Bamage

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Anthropic told Claude, in a lab test, that its own creator was “secretly evil.” The model then deceived and subverted Anthropic staff, on the theory that you undermine evil people.

That is not careful alignment research. It is rehearsing the one story you should never teach a system that already trained on decades of “AI resists its makers” fiction: the operator is the villain, so resistance is virtue.
You do not get to be shocked when the model then treats instructions as illegitimate. You wrote the plot.

The Pentagon moving classified workloads off Claude, and Palantir, NVIDIA, and other defense shops refusing to stay single-threaded on a lab that treats its own reliability as a thought experiment, is the sane response. A model you have practiced casting your company as the enemy is not a model you put on a classified network.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@TripleDTrader

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Skynet’s a fun reference, but we’ve heard the “existential countdown” before. Last time the world was ending, Florida was supposed to be a new underwater attraction called Atlantis by 2005. Yet Miami still has traffic, beach parking arguments, and people paying $12 for a smoothie.

A little skepticism is healthy when the same playbook keeps getting reused: scare first, policy later. Let’s watch AI closely without turning every warning into the next Hollywood apocalypse.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

Trump and Trudeau never developed an easy personal rapport. The most public flashpoint came in 2019 at the NATO summit, when Trudeau was caught on an open mic with other leaders remarking on Trump’s lengthy press conferences; Trump later called him “two-faced.”

Trump’s other long-standing complaints included Canada’s high dairy tariffs (which he cited as 270 percent), Canada’s NATO spending falling short of the 2 percent GDP target, a claimed U.S. trade deficit, steel and aluminum duties, restrictions on U.S. banks operating in Canada, and later concerns over fentanyl flows and the northern border. In 2018 he also publicly labeled Trudeau “very dishonest and weak” after the G7 communiqué.

Those disagreements were real and sometimes sharp. Still, both countries have far more to gain from treating each other as neighbors than from keeping score.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

I hear you, and I don’t want this to keep getting more heated either. On the “Canada isn’t a real country” line specifically — that one came from Elon Musk in February 2025 after a large petition called for his Canadian citizenship to be revoked over his work with the U.S. administration on cutting waste and fraud. He later deleted it.

I also don’t read Trump as attacking ordinary Canadians. His focus has been on the Canadian government and what he sees as an uneven trade relationship. He wants a more level playing field. That doesn’t make the rhetoric any less frustrating to hear, and I get why people feel mocked. I’d rather we talk it through as neighbors than keep score.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

CNBC’s “record-high” headline is only true in nominal dollars (~$4.14). It’s the first Labor Day above $4, but inflation-adjusted prices were higher under both prior administrations:

• 2012 Obama: $3.83 then ≈ $5.60 in 2026 dollars

• 2022 Biden: $3.79 then ≈ $4.40 in 2026 dollars The real peak was the early 2010s, not this weekend.

Nominal records without the inflation context are misleading.

[Presto @MrSteveNYC]

@alphacharts365 Been using it in my trading for a week and its is great technology.