Michael Sadowsky

Data Scientist

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@mattyglesias At least there's a consistent algorithm involved here. It looks like it was something like (if Gore won, solid blue; if Bush won by less than 5, lean D, if Bush won by less than 15 but more than 5, lean Red, if Bush won by more than 15, solid red, subtract home state effects )

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@xenocryptsite Late movement was actually a large part of the picture here, which is clearer with the 538 version. https://t.co/vgTiYmKBxC

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@sensiblemoderat @SpecialPuppy1 https://t.co/EQS8NFAhPl

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@sensiblemoderat @SpecialPuppy1 Which compares to ~272.4 if you don't round, so that ~2.4 is your bias compared to the straight popular vote.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@sensiblemoderat @SpecialPuppy1 I get 270 if you use the 2way and round the EVs.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@sensiblemoderat @SpecialPuppy1 It should always be closer to the popular vote margin if you allocate proportionally, so it would be closer to 270. But that doesn't make it biased against Ds.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@mattyglesias @MWStory I think it's mostly that the world in which Buttigieg announces is probably the world in which Biden already said he wasn't running. Honestly, 12% seems way too high to me with that in mind. The chance that Buttigieg announces when Biden is running seems <5%.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@PopulismUpdates Are the right committed to coalition with each other, or is a centrist coalition possible if the right takes the edge here?

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@StefanFSchubert Probably having a larger population makes coverage a lot better. Need a sufficient mass of data nerds to care a lot.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@NasicaSerapio @PatrickRuffini @SpecialPuppy1 True; I think in two ways.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@SpecialPuppy1 @PatrickRuffini Also, Carter is p(Carter wins counties and Clinton doesn’t) while Clinton is only p(Clinton wins counties)

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@SpecialPuppy1 @PatrickRuffini Yeah, skew was definitely less than Clinton, but national margin so much closer than Clinton, so I think Clinton more likely.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@PatrickRuffini @SpecialPuppy1 Certainly did worse compared to nation as a whole, but won overall by 9 points. I think it’s close here.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@PatrickRuffini @SpecialPuppy1 You have the sum of Clinton and Dole votes from these counties?

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@SpecialPuppy1 @PatrickRuffini I'd guess probably Clinton.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@SpecialPuppy1 There was also probably a modest amount of drop off of R voters because of voter laziness/misunderstanding.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@SpecialPuppy1 Conditional on a candidate beating Trump, that candidate will probably win NH. They will also likely do better in NH than IA. However, I think "must win" is too strong. Trump's coalition seems to have moved to the right, but he did do better in NH than IA last time.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@xenocryptsite The center squeeze aspects of RCV could easily do Begich in here. Peltola just has to beat Begich in the 1st round, and then Palin probably wins.

This house election will be an interesting test of whether large crossover will occur for a typical R to beat a right wing R.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@polisisti @daniel_eth @curiouskiwicat I think that's primarily a Joe Rogan thing. Giant bump after his appearance. Will sees a giant bump after his appearance a couple years earlier if you go back.

[Michael Sadowsky @msadowsky]

@JgaltTweets Any US court can include a minor one that would be overturned.