Ticker change: starting November 12, the MicroSectors™ Gold 3X Leveraged ETNs ($SHNY) will trade under a new ticker, $GLLD.
Only the ticker symbol is changing. The ETNs keep all other terms, including +3X leveraged exposure to the daily performance of the SPDR® Gold Shares ($GLD). No action is required from holders.
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Most companies that pay for AI now pay both Anthropic and OpenAI.
At the start of 2024, almost all of them paid OpenAI compared to about 4 in 100 for Anthropic.
By September, Anthropic had pulled ahead: 78 in 100 paid Anthropic and 73 in 100 paid OpenAI.
Hotel stocks just checked in at record highs.
Marriott $MAR is up 18.5% and Hilton $HLT is up 17.7% since the S&P 500's last record on October 6. Both closed at all-time highs yesterday.
Over the same stretch, Nvidia $NVDA is down 29.4% and chip stocks are down 24.4%.
Marriott rose on 8 of the 13 days the S&P 500 fell.
Natural gas is up 15% since Election Day.
So why are the companies that produce it down?
Data centers run on electricity, and natural gas generates about 40% of U.S. power. The EIA found that most of the extra power data centers need would come from running gas plants harder. That makes data centers a major part of the long-term case for gas.
Last week, voters passed restrictions on data centers in almost every local measure on the ballot.
Thinking about booking a holiday flight?
Expect to pay more than last year. A ticket that cost $300 a year ago costs about $367 now.
Airfares are rising 6x faster than overall prices and hit a record high in October's CPI report, their 11th straight monthly gain.
A big reason is fuel. Jet fuel averaged $4.48 a gallon in October, more than double the $2.15 of a year earlier, and airlines are carrying that bill into Thanksgiving.
How long can travelers keep paying that before they start staying home?
The market bounced today. The S&P 500 rose 2.3% and gold rose 1.9%, but gold miners $GDX rose 4.4%, more than twice as much as gold.
$B results this morning show why.
Last quarter it cost Barrick $1,911 to get an ounce of gold out of the ground. Barrick sold it for $4,243 and kept $2,332.
Now say gold rises 10%. The same ounce sells for $4,667, which is $424 more. It's the same mine, the same trucks and the same crew, so digging it up still costs about $1,911. All of the extra $424 goes to Barrick, and what it keeps on the ounce rises from $2,332 to $2,756.
A 10% move in gold became an 18% move in what Barrick keeps.
$MU made $37.7 billion last quarter. A year earlier it made $3.2 billion.
The market values memory makers at 2 to 3.5 times next year's earnings. One side calls that a peak. The other calls it a bargain. https://t.co/odMM1wOzc4
Semiconductors and AI are two of the most watched trades in the market, and four of the new MicroSectors™ suites put them in a single ticker at daily 3X.
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No more Cybertruck?
Tesla plans to wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027 to make room for the Cybercab. Its delivery numbers show how far sales had fallen.
Tesla doesn't report the Cybertruck on its own. It's counted with the Model S and X as "Other Models." That group peaked at 23,640 deliveries in Q4 2024, a year after the Cybertruck arrived.
Last quarter it was 8,295, down 65% and the lowest since 2021. That's about half of what the Model S and X delivered on their own in 2022. $TSLA
Taiwan's stock market is mostly AI supply chain.
Seven AI stocks make up 42% of the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF $EWT, and TSMC $TSM alone is 22%.
So when chip stocks had their second-worst day since 1994 on Thursday, Taiwan had its worst.
TSM's US shares fell 10.8%, and EWT fell 11.5%, its biggest drop since it started trading in 2000.
At 9:35 a.m., 8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up.
By 11:40 a.m., none were.
Staples and energy held out the longest. Tech, industrials and consumer discretionary never saw green.
All 11 closed down. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and chip stocks fell 12.2%, their second-worst day since 1994.
Chip stocks are down 7.4% this morning.
If today holds, it will be the 11th day this year the PHLX Semiconductor Index has fallen 5% or more.
That is already more than all of 2020 (10) and 2022 (8).
Since 1994, only four years had more: 2000 (31), 2001 (29), 2002 (25) and 2008 (12).
Three of this year's 11 have come in the last 11 sessions: Oct. 22, Oct. 30 and today.
The index is 35.0% below its June 22 record close.
Chip stocks are down 7.4% this morning.
If today holds, it will be the 11th day this year the PHLX Semiconductor Index has fallen 5% or more.
That is already more than all of 2020 (10) and 2022 (8).
Since 1994, only four years had more: 2000 (31), 2001 (29), 2002 (25) and 2008 (12).
Three of this year's 11 have come in the last 11 sessions: Oct. 22, Oct. 30 and today.
The index is 35.0% below its June 22 record close.
WTI has held the same rising trendline for 121 days. Three times it fell to the line, and three times a Hormuz threat sent it higher.
July 6: $68.55. Two days later, Trump threatened a Hormuz blockade. WTI rose 34.5% by July 23.
August 5: $75.22. Two days later, Hormuz tanker traffic stalled. WTI rose 21.0% by September 2.
October 7: $88.28. The next day, Iran stepped up tanker attacks. WTI rose 17.9% by October 30.
Overnight, Iran's IRGC said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz. WTI is down 3% and back on the line.
One difference this time: it's the day after the midterms.
Options priced in a 12.5% move for Palantir $PLTR after last night's report. It was down as much as 9.2% before this morning's open, and it's now down 2.0%, after adjusted EPS of $0.44 vs. $0.41 expected.
Here's how to find the implied move for any stock before it reports:
1. Find the first options expiration after the report. For PLTR, Friday, Nov. 6.
2. Pick the strike closest to the share price: $182.50, with PLTR at $181.44.
3. Add the call and put prices at that strike. Together they're called a straddle, about $22.70 here.
4. Divide by the share price: $22.70 ÷ $181.44 = 12.5%.
That's the move, in either direction, that options were pricing in. This is the simple version; some traders scale the straddle down slightly.
The rest of last night's and this morning's reports, with the implied move in brackets: Apple ($AAPL ) -1.7% (4.4%), EPS $2.10 vs. $1.99 expected. Williams ($WMB ) +3.3% (5.1%), adjusted EPS $0.54, in line. Diamondback Energy ($FANG) -2.2% and Marathon Petroleum ($MPC) -0.1% list only monthly options; adjusted EPS $5.86 vs. $5.60 and $26.93 vs. $26.00.
We were one word away.
Alex Karp hit 13 of our 24 Palantir bingo squares on last night's call. Two different lines were one square short: "Commodity" or "Parasitic" would have done it.
"Commodity" did come up on the call. CTO Shyam Sankar said it, not Karp.
There is no CEO on an earnings call quite like $PLTR 's Alex Karp.
We went through the transcripts of his last eight calls. He said "America" 77 times, on every one. "Obviously" came up on seven of the eight. He has brought up steak dinners on each of the last four.
Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close today. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $0.41 on $2.18 billion of revenue, up from $0.21 and $1.18 billion a year ago. Options imply a move of about 12%.
Here's your bingo card for tonight's call.
There is no CEO on an earnings call quite like $PLTR 's Alex Karp.
We went through the transcripts of his last eight calls. He said "America" 77 times, on every one. "Obviously" came up on seven of the eight. He has brought up steak dinners on each of the last four.
Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close today. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $0.41 on $2.18 billion of revenue, up from $0.21 and $1.18 billion a year ago. Options imply a move of about 12%.
Here's your bingo card for tonight's call.