Marcus Hendriks

MENA region lead @gmantle_macro, Visiting Fellow @CSNS_UK. Generally in favour of books and realism

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

@shashj In fewer words: more noise. We won’t get insight into Trump’s next Iran play tonight

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

If frustration with allies prevails, likelihood of a cut and run increases. If with Iran, escalation is more likely. I hope NATO leaders have spent most of their days on phone to the US

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

Trump is clearly angry: at Iran for not playing Venezuela, at NATO for not doing more. What matters is at whom he directs that anger, not just tonight but in the weeks ahead. This will determine his next play

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

@JasonMBrodsky I assume he means the president of Iran’s ‘new regime’, in any case

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

Trump said ‘Iran’s New Regime President’. He obviously means the president of Iran’s ‘new regime’, not that Pezeshkian is a new president. Everyone should relax a bit. Plenty else to question the president about.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

"Blinking now turns Trump into Eden and Iran into Nasser on steroids. Escalation without a coherent theory of victory risks another quagmire. The challenge is that Tehran will contemplate backing down only if America projects unwavering resolve." Brilliant analysis by @mshmena.

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

Bears noting that Trump’s clear revealed preference regarding Iran is for a deal, but one on his terms. Both last year and this year the pattern was: ‘talks get stuck->Trump escalates’. Noise aside, now feels similar.

[Marcus Hendriks @mshmena]

Finally succumbed to the pull of X. On the bright side, here is my latest for @spectator where I delve into history for clues as to how the Third Gulf War ends.

https://t.co/AlZl4Io9LH