Troy Muljat CCIM/CPM

Husband and Father. Commercial Broker. Real Estate Developer. Investor. Sucker for chocolate and peanut butter. #CancerSurvivor

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US Rents were down 0.9% over the last year, the 29th consecutive month with a YoY decline. Renting a home is cheaper than paying a mortgage in all 50 of the largest metros in the US.

Video: https://t.co/E14lUvgIGz

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

Currently, 40% of homes do not have a mortgage. The Loan to Value data was running at 85% back in 2008; currently, it is at 46.6%.

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

Remember, we weren't the prices have to follow volume crowd and that prices are going to crash in 2022/2023/2024

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US commercial property foreclosures hit $20.55 billion in the 2nd quarter, a 13% increase from Q1 and the highest total since 2015.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

JUST IN: The US office vacancy rate hits a fresh record high of 19%, surpassing levels seen in both 2008 and 2020.

In other words, roughly 1 out of every 5 offices in the US is currently vacant.

~$1.7 trillion of commercial real estate debt is projected to mature from 2024 to 2026.

This means that ~30% of outstanding commercial real estate debt will need to be refinanced at much higher rates.

All while 70% of these loans are held by small banks that remain under pressure from the regional bank crisis.

CRE is beyond bear market territory.

[Braden Gustafson, MAI 🏘 @GustafsonSnoco]

How are home prices relative to what a typical person can afford? Our index for Whatcom County is now at 54.9, which is the lowest on record. the median home price is just under $600k and a typical household in Whatcom County can afford $330k.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The cost of buying a home in the US rises to $2,750/month, the second highest ever recorded, according to Reventure.

Prior to the pandemic in 2022, the average home in the US would cost $1,400/month.

In other words, it is now 100% MORE expensive to buy a home in 2024 compared to 2020.

Even at the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the average home payment peaked at $1,550/month.

The average US family would need to spend 44% of their PRE-TAX income to buy a home today.

What do new homebuyers do now?

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Active housing inventory shift in America's 50 largest metro area housing markets

That 5-year change column is the most important, IMO

ResiClub PRO members just got my latest inventory analysis, plus data for +800 metros and +3,000 counties: https://t.co/PFUwdfQuwx

[Clint Murphy @IAmClintMurphy]

If you watch the NEWS, you may think we're headed for Civil War and the world is in Bad Shape.

That's Bullsh!t

And, here's 10 Charts to Prove it:

1. Child Survival is Up

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Well this is unusual.

This is Jared Bernstein, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy, from the documentary: Finding the Money.

He seems unable to communicate how the US monetary system works, despite being an advisor on it to the president.

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

The cost to buy a house in America in 2024 is over $2,750/month on average.

That's the most expensive homebuyer cost of all-time.

In comparison to other time periods:

$2,754/mo - Today
$1,418/mo - 2020 Pre-Pandemic
$1,577/mo - 2006 Bubble
$1,060/mo - Dotcom Bubble
$922/mo - 18% Mtg Rates in 1981

This monthly cost is inclusive of mortgage, taxes, & insurance. Assumes 13% Downpayment.

[Braden Gustafson, MAI 🏘 @GustafsonSnoco]

If you are wondering about construction at Easton and 11th in Bellingham that just commenced, they are building a residential fourplex on the property.

[Braden Gustafson, MAI 🏘 @GustafsonSnoco]

The multifamily market has slowed in the northern counties. The number of sales this past quarter was down 50% from 2022. Prices were increasing year on year on year until 2022.

[Braden Gustafson, MAI 🏘 @GustafsonSnoco]

The high-interest-rate real estate market has taken its toll on appraisers as well, but mostly residential. In Washington State, the amount of credentialed appraisers is down 3%, but residential is down 4.7% since 2022. This is the lowest amount in at least 20 years. #appraisal

[Odeta Kushi @odetakushi]

U.S. households own about $45 trillion in owner-occupied real estate, $13 trillion in debt, and the remaining $32 trillion in equity. The national "LTV" in Q4 2023 was 29%, up slightly from a recent low of 27.5%.

In inflation-adjusted terms, homeowners have an average of $324k in equity, down modestly from last quarter but up from one year ago.

[Lance Lambert @NewsLambert]

Foreclosures by quarter

Q4 2008: 417,880
Q4 2009: 463,660

Q4 2019: 71,320

Q4 2021: 8,860
Q4 2022: 34,180
Q4 2023: 40,120

Below you can download my presentation: The U.S. housing market, as told by 48 charts https://t.co/SbF6gFofGV

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

As we conclude 2024, if the NAR data doesn't break over 1,500,000 active listings, this 5-year period will have the lowest active listings span in the recent history of America.
2-2.5 million the norm
4,000,000 in 2007
Today, a tad over 1,000,000

[Braden Gustafson, MAI 🏘 @GustafsonSnoco]

The rent control bill has died in the WA senate

[Logan Mohtashami @LoganMohtashami]

There are more exciting ways to look at housing! I know 🙄
However, the market stabilized after the most significant and fastest crash in sales ever, which happened in 2022.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate...
-Dec 13, 2023: Pause
-Jan 31, 2024: Pause
-Mar 20, 2024: Pause
-May 1, 2024: 25 bps cut to 5.00-5.25%
-Additional cuts to 3.80% by Nov 2025