When India accidentally wiped out its vultures, half a million people died in five years.
The bird doing zoomies in this video runs the most extreme digestive system in the animal kingdom. Vulture stomach acid sits near pH 1, strong enough to destroy anthrax, rabies, and botulism in the carcasses they eat. A flock strips a cow to bone in about 45 minutes.
India had 50 million of them. Free sanitation at national scale, in a country where religious custom means most cattle die natural deaths and every dead cow becomes a carcass someone has to deal with.
Then the patent on diclofenac expired in 1994. Farmers started using the cheap painkiller on livestock. Trace amounts left in a carcass cause kidney failure in vultures. Within a decade, 50 million birds fell to a few thousand. The fastest collapse of any bird species since the passenger pigeon.
The carcasses didn't disappear. Feral dogs took the vultures' place and brought rabies with them. Rotting remains leached into waterways. In districts where vultures once thrived, human death rates rose more than 4 percent. Economists at Chicago and Warwick put the toll at 100,000 extra deaths a year and $69 billion in annual damages.
So yes, the goofy bird sprinting down the walkway is adorable. It's also a disease firewall that evolution spent millions of years building and one generic painkiller nearly erased in ten.
A Nobel laureate went on stage and explained in sixty minutes why smart people make stupid decisions with money. For free. For the next decade business schools charged $200,000 for the same material.
He didn't sell a course. He didn't launch a fund. His name was Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who never studied economics and won the Nobel Prize in it. Zurich, 2013. Seven hundred people could not fit in the hall and listened from a screen next door.
His whole argument fits on a napkin. Widen the frame, and treat the decision in front of you as one of a hundred like it. Ask a friend, because they do not feel your loss and can see odds you cannot. Slow down when the stake is big. Write the procedure if you run anything, because an organization holds what a person cannot.
A loss lands twice as hard as the same size gain feels good. Two thirds of American small businesses close within five years, and their founders put their own odds at four in five. He invented the term planning fallacy, then promised a colleague his book in eighteen months. It took four and a half years. You built your last deadline the same way.
He does not think you can fix yourself. He says it near the end, flatly, that individuals cannot do much about any of this. A company that simply knows about these two things, he says, gets an advantage and a clearer picture of what the world is actually like. Almost nobody takes it.
A portfolio manager at a London fund told me this is the first thing he sends anyone joining his desk. Not a book. Not a model. This recording. The book sold in the millions and runs five hundred pages. The lecture carries the same argument end to end in sixty minutes.
He died in 2024. The napkin is free. Writing the four rules down takes a minute. It is in the video.
I f*cking dare you to be irrational for the next 90 days. Lean into your weirdness. Let people call you crazy. Chase your obsession. Let neuroplasticity benefits that come from daily execution rewire your brain. Just do the opposite of 99% of people. Act totally unhinged as everything is going to work in your favor, including failure and rejection. Once you live a limitless life for 90 days, your entire life will never be the same again, chief.
If you're genuinely trying to be performatively busy, then you're likely not successful.
Successful individuals answer faster because they know that every call or message leaves an open loop in your brain, which would drain them and scatter their attention.
Hence, they commit to the pragmatic solution: answering.
Loop closed, back to business.
That's arguably higher status than playing 12-hour reply games.
Sifuna cannot win and not because he does not deserve it. I couldn't think of anyone more deserving but the rabid mechanics of local politics can only afford the untested popularity, never raw power. Too much is at stake for the old guards. The president will remain Ruto.
But if the opposition were to join hands, they could rework the parliament and position themselves for a bigger share of the pie in Ruto's post-2027 government, and potentially, be a real force in the 2032 elections if the party architectures remain the same - a tall order in itself.
Unfortunately, as it stands, the opposition is too disjointed, and a little too taken by the frenzy and street adulation to institute a meaningful attack.
I must add, that this is not a condemnation of Sifuna's person, or an endorsement of the incumbent. I always liked Sifuna. But I try keep my emotions out of game theory, especially, on a discipline that's already as emotionally infested as politics.
What people say, and what they do are two different things and that's why votes don't lie. Because secret ballot shields against the harangue one would suffer if they were to declare their true political leanings in public. There is a bigger nation called Kenya that goes beyond Nairobi. And galvanising those votes takes years of ground work that cannot be realized in less than a year.
ODM needed 3 years to topple a leadership that still clung to power anyway. NARC was an umbrella unit of parties that had done groundwork for years. Presently the leading opposition face in Sifuna is still negotiating parties. Gachagua's DCP - the notable opposition party - is still a drooling infant, so to speak.
Groundwork must achieve more than token following on social media, and, unfortunately, the opposition may have kept it too late. For the presidency, at least. But the parliament is theirs to take.
All the same, good luck to all the candidates. It takes great daring to try and I wish them all the best.
No one alerted me at 40. So I'm alerting you.
(Bookmark, take notes, tell your friends)
1. When you turn 40 you'll see the difference between those who took risks and those who didn't.
Keep your problems smaller than your life. A flat tire is a flat tire. A bad meeting is a bad meeting. A canceled flight is just an extra two hours. These things become catastrophes when you let them. But they stay manageable when you remember the depth of your real life- the people you love, the work you care about, the beautiful years still ahead. Zoom out. Fit your reaction to the size of the problem.
— Unknown
The older I get the more I realize:
• Silence is a response
• Being unbothered is a skill
• No is a full sentence
• Most "urgent" things can wait
• Respect > Attention
• Apologies are empty without change
• Movement is medicine
• You're not for everyone, and that's fine
The older I get, the more I realize...
- being disliked by idiots is just proof you’re not one of them
- you rarely win big without pissing someone off
- anger is useful in physical fights, but a killer of logic
- strong beliefs paired with little knowledge is a dangerous place to operate from
Game theory teaches you that a promise means nothing if breaking it is cheaper than keeping it. Character matters, but cost matters too. Do not build your peace on someone else’s mood. Build conditions where betrayal is expensive, cooperation is rewarded, and disrespect loses access.
As I get older, I’ve become convinced that training yourself to be unemotional is the number one skillset for success in business and life. Getting mad, letting your pride interfere, being jealous, wanting to score points backfires 100% of the time. Exercise and time is a key.
The Kenya animal feeds industry requires extra policy and legal regulations to protect farmers.
In the past few days, a graduate student and I have been travelling around the country talking to retailers and farmers and I do believe most farmers are feeding contaminated feeds and feed ingredients including the salts and mineral premixes.
An industry that is filled with thugs who even threaten you with violence if you take any samples from their supply region needs extreme measures to curb this janjajanja culture.
I also believe that most salts and premixes are not helping farmers and their livestock as their supplementation is not context dependent.
Underrated life advice: Make yourself easy to root for. Be kind. Be reliable. Celebrate other people’s wins. Work hard without complaining. Carry good energy into rooms. You'll be shocked by how many doors open for you by making life better for others.
I think silence is the highest form of intimacy. Perhaps, the truest marker of compatibility among lovers. While attraction seeks frenzy, forever is a question of stillness: Can we sit still together? Can you be bored with me? How badly do you need to distract yourself from you?
If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it.
Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness.
Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
Everyone admires the bold; no one honors the timid.