🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE WILL CRASH S&P 500
Read the post carefully before buying stocks
3 AI and space giants are going public in the same year with a combined valuation approaching $4 trillion:
1. The biggest IPO wave in decades
- SpaceX could become the largest IPO in history, raising up to $75 billion(
$SPCX will debut on Nasdaq on June 12)
- OpenAI has already filed a confidential S-1 and is targeting a valuation above $1 trillion
- Anthropic is also considering a public listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion
2. The S&P 500 is currently being carried mostly by the Mag 7 and AI-related stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.), which make up roughly 33-35% of the index
These 3 IPO could create a massive liquidity drain as investors move $75-200+ billion into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic shares
Funds and investors would likely sell existing positions in today's market leaders to free up capital, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google among the first likely to feel the pressure
On top of that, the S&P 500 has so far resisted fast-tracking these unprofitable giants into the index, meaning the capital rotation effect could put even more pressure on existing index components
3. History shows a concerning pattern
At the peak of every major market bubble, capital became concentrated in a small group of "can't lose" companies:
- The Roaring Twenties
- The Nifty Fifty era
- Japan's 1980s asset bubble
- The Dot-Com Bubble of 1999-2000
Today, capital concentration in the tech sector is once again near historical extremes
4. After an IPO, early investors get the opportunity to lock in profits
Historically, lock-up expirations have often increased selling pressure on newly public stocks
During the Dot-Com era, even some of the highest-quality companies suffered massive drawdowns:
- Amazon: -95%
- Microsoft: -65%
- Intel: -80%
- Oracle: -80%
- Yahoo: -97%
A great business doesn't protect investors from overvaluation
IPOs at these kinds of valuations, while many AI companies are still deeply unprofitable, are often a sign of market euphoria
I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan
Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below
The next phase is gonna be very important
🚨RETAIL HAS VANISHED FROM THE CRYPTO MARKET
CEX spot volume collapsed to $679 billion, the lowest level since October 2023, as per CryptoQuant.
Spot trading is now down 46% YoY, a staggering -67% drawdown from its October 2025 peak.
Major exchanges are rushing to pivot to gold, silver, oil, stocks, where the monthly volume has already exploded beyond $450 billion.
If you invested $100,000 in SanDisk 8 months ago, you'd be a millionaire today.
If you invested the same $100,000 in $ETH 8 months ago, you'd be both poor and divorced today.
my chinese roommate works at Citadel
risk analyst. been in NYC 7 months.
$800 → $61,000 in 7 weeks
last week his mom called. hospital in Shanghai. surgery: $29,000. 72 hours.
next morning he wired $29,000. "surgery is scheduled. go"
total cost: $0
"how?"
"Polymarket whale clustering. but edge shrinking fast"
showed me data. "two months ago this made $6K/week. now $2.3K. in 4 months bots flood in"
"when 3+ elite wallets enter same contract within 90 seconds - something is mispriced. I follow automatically. retail sees it 14 seconds later"
four systems: whale clustering. exit timing. category isolation. capital velocity.
"built with Claude in one weekend. competition doubling every month"
copy my wallet: https://t.co/ZbiDwragcz
gave it poly_data repo. 86 million trades.
Claude asked: "deploy where?"
PolyAlertHub.
48 hours later watching numbers.
+$8,700 total. 211 trades. 75% win rate. four weeks.
wallets it copies:
> 0xa91f2 $78K profit. whale entry specialist.
> 0x63ce3 $94K profit. exits at 91% every time.
install chrome extension: https://t.co/MxNUZ6ayaS
first alerts within 24-48 hours
"in china we say: follow the smart money before it becomes obvious"
his mom out of surgery.
mine asked when I'm getting real job.
What just happened?
The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
Lighter generated another $227K in revenue today.
And you know what’s interesting? This is already the second time this month that Lighter has set a new monthly revenue record. Yesterday it was around $209K, and today it climbed even higher to $227K.
I’ve said this before: when a product is genuinely strong, the difference between a bear market and a bull market becomes much smaller. Strong products keep growing regardless of market conditions.
And at the moment, $LIT is performing exactly like that.
I think next month we could be looking at even higher numbers from here because the team keeps shipping and improving the product every single day.
That’s it.
Lighter 🕯️
Be Michael Saylor
Round trip billions of dollars while top blasting billions into the Bitcoin while the chart goes down only
Decide to sell an insignificant amount of Bitcoin to cover cash reserve needs
Lose an additional $14.6B in the following collapse in just 1 week
$SOL is the most oversold it has EVER been.
- Solana just hit a 3-year low of $60.
- Down -80% from its ATH.
- 8 consecutive red monthly candles for the first time in history.
- $SOL Monthly RSI is more oversold than the 2022 FTX crash when sol crashed to $8.
Do you think the bottom is in?
The 4-Year Bitcoin bear market cycle is still a visible pattern
Q3 and Q4 2026 will likely be a weak quarter
Another 6 months. Survive and thrive.
bitcoin:native
Btw
Lighter's UX is on another level.
It’s been a while since I traded perps after 10-10, so I started with small amounts to test out the current protocols.
Lighter was always good, but right now, I honestly believe it’s the best place to trade.
0-fees are a huge plus, but they also have so many useful features to boost your productivity; it’s insane.
- Open a trade directly on the chart
- Hover-dropdown to TP/SL level on chart, you dont need to manually type the levels at all.
- Reverse your trade - instantly change your direction
- Twap easily
- Export your trading history; very usefull for accounting and taxes
- And their mobile version is even better than Binance right now
Probably many others i am missing now but you should give it a try.