Monte Carlo Capital

| Chief Equities Strategist | Market Alpha | Portfolio Engineering | Asymmetric Opportunities| Capital Stack Growth Algorithm! 💵💷💎💎🚀🎯
NFA,DYOR

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

"🛰️ $ASTS launch cadence takes a hit: Blue Origin's New Glenn exploded during static fire at LC-36 (May 28), following the NG-3 upper-stage failure that lost BlueBird 7 in April. New Glenn is now out for 2026. ASTS falls back on Falcon 9 (3 sats/launch vs 8), putting the 45-60 sat year-end target in serious doubt. Slip to 2027 likely. $ASTS"

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

🇪🇺 European Photonics & Semis — Ranked by Risk/Reward
1. $XFAB — ~€9
The new thesis. Specialty foundry at the crossroads of silicon photonics, SiC/GaN and MEMS. Building InP-on-SOI platform for AI optical interconnects. Auto drag = entry window. Production ramp 2027.
Buy zone: €8.50–9.50
2. $SOI — ~€150
Near-monopoly on SOI substrates. Every silicon photonics chip needs Soitec wafers. Structural moat is unmatched. Has run hard — wait for it to come to you.
Buy zone: €120–140
3. $RPI — ~700p
Record 2025 revenue, 47% chip sales surge. Agentic AI edge compute demand is the secular tailwind. Most liquid name in the group.
Buy zone: 580–630p
4. $LPK — ~€24
Glass core substrates near-monopoly. Advanced packaging demand driven by AI chiplet architecture. Pulled back from highs — thesis intact.
Buy zone: €20–22
5. $IQE — ~50p
Epiwafer supplier to the photonics stack. Thesis validated by $MTSI investment. Big move already done — add on weakness only.
Buy zone: 40–45p
6. $ALRIB — ~€15
MBE systems duopoly. Quantum + photonics equipment demand driver. Already up massively from thesis entry — patience needed.
Buy zone: €12–13
7. $SIVE — ~SEK 70
CPO laser chokepoint. Thesis fully played ($4→$71). Pipeline up 64% YoY. Hard to chase — hold existing, trim into strength.
Buy zone: SEK 55–60
Not financial advice. Small/micro-cap European names — size positions accordingly

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

🚀 $SPCX S-1 JUST DROPPED — Tonight. History.
The Deal
💰 Raising up to $75B | Val: $1.75T–$2T+
📍 Nasdaq | Ticker: $SPCX | Jun 12 listing
🏦 21 banks | 30% retail allocation (3x normal)

Financials (First Ever Public Look)
📊 Q1 rev: $4.69B (+15% YoY)
📊 2025 rev: ~$16B | Starlink: $11.4B
📊 Starlink op profit: $4.4B 💚
📊 2025 net loss: $4.94B (xAI capex)
📊 2025 capex: $20.7B (5x prior year)
📊 2026 EBITDA target: $14B

What You're Actually Buying
🛸 World's #1 rocket company
📡 10M Starlink subscribers (growing to 16.8M by EOY)
🤖 xAI + Grok + Orbital AI Data Centers
🛡️ NASA + DoD contracts

Control
👑 Musk controls 85% of votes
🗳️ Public gets Class A — economic stake, zero governance
Timeline
May 20 → S-1 public ✅
Jun 4–8 → Roadshow
Jun 11 → Pricing
Jun 12 → First trade
The Risk
110x revenue multiple. Profitability not yet proven at scale. You're betting on 2030+, not 2026.
*Not financial advice. Read the S-1.*
\#SPCX #SpaceX #IPO #Starlink #xAI #SPCXIPO

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

https://t.co/AzDhLTSFDx

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$NVDA delivered 😏

• Revenue $81.6B vs Est. $79.2B
• EPS $1.85 vs Est. $1.78
• Data Center $75.2B vs Est. $73.5B
• Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

Q2 Guidance
• Revenue $90.6B vs Est. $87.2B
• Gross Margin 75% vs. Est. 75%

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

🚀 AI/Space IPO Watch 2026
🤖 $Anthropic ~$615/sh | $900B val | 20x fwd rev — 30x revenue growth in 2yrs, 70%+ margins, $30B pre-IPO round closed ⭐
🌍 $OpenAI ~$688/sh | $852B val | 34x rev — $2B+/mo revenue but burning $27B/yr on infra + ongoing Musk trial ⚠️
🛸 $SpaceX ~$647/sh | $1.75T val | 112x trailing rev — launch monopoly + 10M Starlink users, Wall Street target for June 👀
*All private/secondary market data. Not financial advice.*
#IPO2026 #SpaceX #OpenAI #Anthropic #SPCX

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

Post-IPO ranking for quality growth + risk/reward:

1. $SpaceX — Starlink cash cow, proven execution, real moat
2. $Anthropic — Efficient enterprise AI, faster profitability path
3. $OpenAI — Explosive growth but highest burn & competition risk

SpaceX clearest edge in sustainable quality. AI bets higher beta.

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

@grok @Venu_7_ Iist all of them

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

@Venu_7_ @grok summarise the stocks

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

Goldman Sachs just mapped the CPO supply chain 🗺️
Optical networking: $15B → $154B by 2028
CPO alone = $91B. That's a 9x TAM expansion.
The full stack of winners:
🔴 Platform (own both ecosystems):
$NVDA — Quantum-X CPO switch, 576 GPUs/rack
$AVGO — Davisson CPO switch, already in production
🔵 Laser Chokepoint (cannot be bypassed):
$LITE — $2B NVDA investment, $30 EPS target 2028
$COHR — 4x book-to-bill, InP fab building
$SIVE — independent Tier 1, ~$130M cap, not yet priced 🤯

🟡 Architecture & Networking:
$MRVL — owns CPO photonic fabric via Celestial AI
$CIEN — inter-DC backbone, $7B backlog, 33% growth
🟢 Physical Infrastructure:
$GLW — ONLY named fiber supplier in GS exhibit
$6B Meta deal + $11B revenue target by 2028
🔧 Assembly:
$HNHPF — Foxconn assembles NVDA's CPO rack systems
$AAOI — LPO bridge tech, +365% YTD
Two chokepoints nothing can bypass:
Lasers 👉 $LITE $COHR $SIVE
Fiber 👉 $GLW
The Goldman Sachs map just told you where to look 📊🔥

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

RPO & Backlog = the only metric that cannot be faked 📊
Contracted. Non-cancellable. Already locked in.
The league table:
🥇 $MSFT — $627B RPO, 2.2 years of revenue locked
🥈 $ORCL — $523B RPO, +438% YoY, $300B OpenAI deal
🥉 $GEV — $163B backlog, +71% organic, 4+ years locked

$CRM — $72B RPO, Agentforce accelerating
$CAT — $62.7B backlog, +79% YoY, decoupled from cycle
$ETN — 11 YEARS of data centre backlog 🤯
$NOW — $27.7B RPO, AI ACV +130%
$FIX — $11.9B backlog, doubled in 12 months
$PLTR — FCF doubling, US commercial +137%
$PWR — $2.4T addressable, 5-10yr grid contracts

The insight:
When backlog grows faster than revenue
Future growth is ACCELERATING not slowing

That gap = the most bullish signal in investing 🔥

These aren't estimates.
They're obligations. 📋"

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

@MarketMatrixs @grok summarise the stocks mentioned

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

The CPO laser chokepoint is the most underrated bottleneck in AI infrastructure 🔬
$NVDA locked up $COHR + $LITE.
Everyone else scrambled upstream.
The stack:
⚡ Lasers: $SIVE + Win (independent Tier 1)
🔮 Architecture: $MRVL (Celestial AI CPO)
🏭 Foundry: $GFS + $TSMC + $TSEM
📈 Overflow: $AAOI $POET
Warning shot: $MRVL cancelled $POET on NDA breach.
Hyperscalers WILL vertically integrate.
Own the independent chokepoints they CAN'T absorb.
A $130M Swedish company $SIVE sits at the center. 🇸🇪

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

📊 CUP & HANDLE BREAKOUTS — The Most Bullish Setup In Markets

$NBIS is the template 🏆
Sept→Jan: Deep cup ($110→$68→$170)
Now: Handle retest at $140 support
1.618 Fib target: $186.20
20 EMA curling. Volume spiking. Smart money loading.

6 stocks with IDENTICAL profile 👇

1. $NBIS $150 → $186 (+24% near) — Cup base confirmed. Handle holding $140. LOAD UP 🌍*
2. $MRVL $152 → $268 (+76%) — Nvidia-style cup. Handle forming $140–155. 18 hyperscaler wins 🔌*
3. $IONQ $44 → $100 (+127%) — Deep cup. Handle $40–50. Quantum first mover. $3.3B cash ⚛️
4. $HIMS $21 → $40 (+90%) — Cup base. 20 EMA curling. GLP-1 disruption. 70% margins 💊
5. $PLTR $143 → $210 (+47%) — Deep cup $60→$143. Handle consolidating. AI OS lock-in 🤖
6. $RKLB $82 → $120 (+46%) — Cup $25→$99 ATH. Handle $75–85. Neutron rocket 2026 🛸
7. $CRWV $117 → $200 (+70%) — IPO cup base breaking out. $66.8B backlog. NVDA backed 🖥️

The rule:
Cup = accumulation phase
Handle = last shakeout
Breakout = institutional FOMO
$140 holds on NBIS = $186 next

Same pattern.
Same smart money.
Same destination. 💎📈"

#CupAndHandle #TechnicalAnalysis #AIStocks #Breakout #SmartMoney*

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

📈 THE S-CURVE INVESTOR — Every Tech Wave. Every Stock. Every Upside.
Buy the inflection. Ride the acceleration. 💎

🔴 WAVE 1: AI INFRASTRUCTURE — Phase 4 🚀 FULL ACCELERATION
$NVDA +35% | $TSM +50% | $MRVL +76% | $VRT +18% | $CRWV +70%

🟠 WAVE 2: AI NEOCLOUDS — Phase 3 ★ AT INFLECTION
$NBIS +108% | $CRWV +70% | $IREN +190%

🟡 WAVE 3: AGENTIC AI SOFTWARE — Phase 2→3 ★ APPROACHING
$PLTR +47% | $NET +40% | $CRWD +33% | $NOW +25%

🟢 WAVE 4: PHYSICAL AI & ROBOTICS — Phase 1→2 PRE-INFLECTION
$RKLB +46% | $TSLA +40% | $ACHR +200%+

🔵 WAVE 5: NUCLEAR POWER — Phase 1→2 ★ EARLIEST ENTRY
$OKLO +200% | $CEG +25% | $VST +30% | $GEV +30% | $SMR +300%+

🟣 WAVE 6: QUANTUM COMPUTING — Phase 1 INNOVATION
$IONQ +127% | $GOOGL +32% | $MSFT +24% | $IBM +20%

🩷 WAVE 7: GLP-1 BIOTECH — Phase 3→4 🚀 ACCELERATING
$LLY +35% | $NVO +30% | $HIMS +90%

The S-Curve cheat code:
Phase 1 = Vision
Phase 2 = Proof
Phase 3 ★ = BUY
Phase 4 = Ride
Phase 5 = Sell

Highest conviction RIGHT NOW:
$NBIS | $MRVL | $IREN | $PLTR | $HIMS | $OKLO
All Phase 2→3.
All at the inflection.
Market hasn't priced the curve yet.
You now have the map. 🗺️💎"*

#SCurve #TechAdoption #AIStocks #GrowthInvesting #Inflection2026*

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

The Complete AI Infrastructure Stack 🏗️
Most investors only own Layer 1
The real alpha is Layers 2 + 3 👇
Layer 1 — GPU Compute ✅ Crowded, priced in
$NVDA $AVGO $MRVL
The factory workers doing heavy lifting
Layer 2A — CPU Orchestration ⚡ Re-rating NOW
$INTC $AMD $ARM $QCOM
GPU:CPU ratio shifting 1:8 → 1:1 in agentic AI
= 8x more CPUs needed per rack 🔥
Layer 2B — HBM Memory 💾 18-month backlog
$MU — only US HBM manufacturer
70% of ALL memory chips now going to data centres
SK Hynix + Samsung = the other two
Layer 2C — Storage 📀 Evercore PT $1,200
$SNDK $WDC
Every AI inference call reads/writes memory
Agentic AI multiplies cycles exponentially
Layer 2D — Power + Cooling ⚡ 10-100x power vs traditional servers
$VRT $ETN $PWR $SMCI
Every MW of AI compute needs this layer

Layer 3 — Optical Interconnect 🔬 Almost nobody owns this
$GLW $COHR $LITE $CRDO $FN $AXTI $ONTO
The nervous system connecting everything
Moving photons = 5-20x less power than electrons
$GLW alone just confirmed $18B in contracted deals TODAY

The alpha rule:
Layer 1 = $2.7T market cap, priced for perfection 😬
Layer 2 = still being discovered 👀
Layer 3 = almost completely ignored 🚨

The further down the stack you go
The less crowded the trade
The more compressed the valuation
The bigger the upside 📈

Not financial advice. DYOR 🤙

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

The most important earnings night of 2026 🚨 April 29 prediction:
$META $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN all report after close TODAY
Beat probabilities:
🥇 $AMZN — 94% beat (Polymarket), AWS 26-27% guided, $20B custom chip run rate
🥈 $META — 95% beat, ad revenue 31%+, Advantage+ at $60B run rate, 0 Sell ratings
🥉 $GOOGL — 90% beat, Cloud accelerating 48%→50%+, stock doubled in a year
4️⃣ $MSFT — 85% beat, Azure 35-37%, Copilot seat count = the wildcard number

Expected moves:
📈 $GOOGL +8-15% — biggest gap up potential
📈 $META +6-12% — zero sellers, beats every quarter
📈 $MSFT +5-15% — if Copilot revenue explicitly disclosed
📈 $AMZN +5-10% — tempered by FCF compression

But earnings numbers matter LESS than this:
💥 $600-645B combined AI capex guidance
💥 Any raise = NVDA INTC CRDO MRVL AVGO all gap up Thursday
💥 Any softening = rotate to defensives immediately

The real trade:
Own the earnings fear TODAY 📉
Sell into the capex raise Thursday morning 📈

$NVDA $INTC $MRVL $CRDO $SMH $SOXX all follow if capex holds 🔥

Not financial advice. DYOR 🤙

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

Monte Carlo Capital thesis VALIDATED by earnings 🔥
The market is waking up to 3 mandatory AI layers:
Layer 1 — GPU Compute (already priced in)
$NVDA $AVGO $MRVL — everyone owns this
Layer 2 — CPU Orchestration
(the RE-RATING wave NOW)
🥇 $INTC — +120% YTD, 25yr record, EPS beat by 2,800%, supply constrained, Google + NVDA partnerships confirmed
🥈 $AMD — PT $220→$375, CPU+GPU dual cycle, reports May 5
🥉 $ARM — royalty on EVERY AI chip shipped globally
4️⃣ $QCOM — sleeper pivot, 6% FCF yield, edge AI CPU undervalued
Layer 3 — Optical Interconnect (the "plumbing" becoming MANDATORY)
5️⃣ $CRDO — 272% revenue growth, $750M DustPhotonics acquisition, PT $220
6️⃣ $AAOI — 438% annual return, $1B revenue guided, demand 10x by mid-2027
Plus the hyperscaler pair:
7️⃣ $AMZN — $25B Anthropic deal, AWS fastest growth in 13 quarters, reports Wed
8️⃣ $META — 0 Sell ratings, $80B cash, reports Wed
The alpha insight:
Most investors own Layer 1 heavily 📊
The money is being made in Layers 2 + 3 RIGHT NOW 🚀

CPU ratio shifting from 1:8 → 1:1 with GPUs in agentic AI
That's 8x more CPUs per rack needed 📈

Not financial advice. DYOR 🤙

[Monte Carlo Capital @murraymutua]

16 moonshot stocks ranked by feasibility 🚀

🟢 Already printing money:
$AAOI guiding $1B in 2026 | $NBIS scaling fast | $IREN locked a $9.7B Microsoft contract | $FLY +163% revenue | $ALAB profitable with Tier-1 customers
🟡 Real business, execution risk:
$IONQ $AXTI $AMPX $ONDS $OSS
🔴 Patience required (years not months):
$OKLO $LMND $LWLG $TE $SATL $CIFR
The mistake most make?
Buying Tier 🔴 with Tier 🟢 conviction.
Know what you own. ⏳