captain doubtful

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

$HLNE next?

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

Rubric Capital, a hedge fund founded by a former Point72 manager David Rosen, wrote a private letter to their LPs effectively saying private credit is a fraudulent bubble.

"Our key takeaway from this behavior is that distribution cuts are so worrisome that some bad actors are playing Enron-like accounting games" per the letter

Letter called out Cliffwater, the biggest operator of interval funds and an aggressive player in selling private credit to individual investors.

Cliffwater’s largest fund, started in June 2019, has since reported a total of just three negative months of investment performance. It now manages $33 billion. The first opportunity this year for investors to ask for their money back is next week.

The note surmised that Cliffwater could be “a canary in a coal mine.” and the first domino of many

The bubble might blow soon

https://t.co/311Jjsyy4C

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@shortbus_ace @thebidterminal @MadolynMaddenMD @dirtcheapbanks Are there any specific large ones you are concerned about?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@PaperBagInvest @daschreiber They’re hitting 3x NEP to tangible equity this year right? Don’t they need to raise equity to grow beyond that?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@Golden_Cap_Dog Premium to surplus of 120% is actually high for an entity without access to capital markets and a lot of asset risk. If that has to be addressed then either the exchange has to shrink or the expense ratio lever has to be pulled, neither of which is good for public holders

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@TyRobben Do you have a view on how much is insurance balance sheets vs investor capital backing these facilities? And is there evidence that capacity is fleeing or is everyone still hungry for growth?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@Golden_Cap_Dog Plus 24% investment allocation to equities and 14% other in the exchange

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@tangentstyle What’s your guess about share reaction if he and his bro sells half or more of his Phoenix Suns stake and inject it in UWMC (1.7x leverage) and says I’m cutting divi until it delevers to 0.5x whenever that may be?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@junkbondinvest Kennie G drinks your milkshake

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

Odyssey

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@tangentstyle @Cap1talCap1tal Krupa the knife. I don’t dismiss the deposit loss, but would note that they’re competing vs mutuals with >100% L/D. So it’s hard to not lose some deposits when you’re trying to change this bank. Also life growing faster than others

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

Surprised that wise national trust bank charter was denied

Companies that have received conditional or unconditional national trust bank charter Stripe Bridge, Circle, Coinbase, BitGo

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@sytaylor @AlexH_Johnson @mikulaja

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@iBladesi @jimdelisle Do you guys have a view on when / how dividends get cut?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@jeuasommenulle @SocieteGenerale @Revolut Did you try Bourso?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@ChairliftCap Frontier thinking, pace of change is not constant over time

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@tangentstyle Can you name/size demand sources?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@JackFarley96 Attempting to manage the wealth effect

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

What’s the bull case for $COIN?

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

CME is now cheap for the status quo, and you get an embedded vol option for free. But what if DJT is planning a parting gift to his loyal tariff board holder? Duffy must be aware of this scenario, making his timing terrible even if it wasn’t intentionally calculated..bad judgment

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

@tangentstyle It’s been a great call

[captain doubtful @mustknowthelore]

Banks have too much share for the value they provide to the customer

[Jack Zhang @awxjack]

We’ve spent the past few months building toward this.

More to share very soon.