Muthonomics

Macro thinking from Brandon Muth, Founder, CEO & Chief Equity Strategist at Muth Capital.

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Stops. Always stops.

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Awwww, pooor wittle Dakypoo got his feewings hert

[Mike Leslie @MikeLeslieWFAA]

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott got cat-called by someone in the tunnel. Someone called out “embarrassing!” Prescott heard it, said something back, and then pointed the person out to a Cowboys employee.

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Here is my short thesis on $ADBE.

I gave Adobe and ChatGPT the exact same image-generation prompt.

Both outputs are clearly AI-generated, but the difference in quality is striking. Adobe looks closer to something produced in Microsoft Paint. ChatGPT, while still imperfect, looks at least somewhat believable.

The prompt:

“Using my face as inspiration, generate professional-looking photos of me standing on a New York City rooftop with the NYC skyline behind me. I want to be wearing a charcoal-colored, modern, fitted suit. I prefer to be standing. I am 6'7" and weigh 215 pounds for reference. You can colorize the picture to make it look natural. It does not need to stay black and white. I want it to have the style of a full-body shoot you might see in GQ, Men’s Style, or a Bloomberg feature. My facial expression can be serious, smiling, or just plain silly. Provide at least three different ideas.”

Obviously, this is a sample size of one.

But based on this test, I have a hard time seeing how $ADBE remains competitive in generative AI unless it dramatically improves its models—and quickly.

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

In our hyper-opinionated, hot-take-obsessed, clip-farming culture, here’s your daily reminder that it is perfectly fine to respond to someone with simply, “I don’t know.”

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Transports and trin not buying what Warsh is selling

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

7666 #SPX kills 95% of 0DTE leaderboard

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Is /CL at $102 finally enough to: #SPX #QQQ #IWM #CL #USO

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Transports poking green...bouncy time imo $SPX $SPY

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Nice relative strength today $RXRX

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

May be time for $RXRX to finally breakout of this wedge

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

We just tapped SPY $770 put wall. Bounce into weekend or another leg down?

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Kalshi is selling dollar bills for two quarters. Or five dimes. Or ten nickels. #fed

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨 : The Fed is now more likely to hike rates in September

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

High beta moonshot in 3, 2, 1… #spy #spx #iwm

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Through a random tennis connection, I bumped into a wannabe hotshot from a Big 3 bank in ATL today. He wanted to know my process and “edge.”

Rather than get into a dick-measuring contest, I AirDropped him a picture of my iPhone screensaver instead.

Wonder if I’ll hear back. 🤔

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

New on the 'Stack https://t.co/QfH8lW5VlP

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Max +415 points after this post

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Might be speaking too soon, but it appears that $SPX is putting in the right shoulder of IHS right at uptrend support line. SPX 7401 when I tweeted this.

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Scrolling through old $BFRG posts and apparently it was supposed to be the “$NVDA of medicine,” the “$PLTR of bio,” etc.

Needless to say, those takes have aged terribly. A lot of the previous hype was likely paid pumping and dilution/delisting risk is real, however, 3.5 years of volatility within the wedge, March press release highlighting Top 5 partnership and recent AI bio hype make it worth a small punt here imo.

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

@L3495397565445 nice username

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

$QS putting in a nice hammer candle on the weekly. Is the 6th time the charm?

[Muthonomics @muthonomics]

Personally, I don’t think the mania has even begun. When the rotation hits AI bio + humanoids and crap like $KITT starts ripping 10-baggers, I’ll get cautious.

Until then, party like it’s 1999.