Martin Wheatcroft FCA

Financial strategist. Advisor and author on public finances. Passionate about communicating financial information.

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW shows how the @UK_DMO of @hmtreasury is borrowing for far shorter periods so we're not paying 6% on 30-year gilts. But we are more dependent on the 'kindness of strangers' by refinancing more often.

Read more: https://t.co/2Edj1n3JIx

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on the 6.2m people who work in the public sector in the UK, 18% of the total workforce. One third work for the NHS, while 9% work for the Civil Service.

Read more: https://t.co/q8j8uIiKzN

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW shows how the 62m people who live in England & Wales are distributed by @ONS statistical region, but with the Greater Manchester and West Midlands city-regions shown separately.

Read more: https://t.co/UwzMUnr9NP

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW shows how #coreinflation and food, alcohol & tobacco, and energy prices rises of 2.6%, 1.7%, 2.1% and 5.7% made up #cpi of 2.6%.

Read more, including comments from ICAEW Chief Economist @Suren_Thiru: https://t.co/lnwVEwBvnH

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

Successive governments have failed to address the implications of many more people living longer not always healthier lives. Let's hope this one starts to take the need for a long-term fiscal strategy more seriously.

Read more: https://t.co/Utak50el7D

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW welcomes in our new First Lord of the Treasury @andyburnham with a couple of charts on the age profile of the population - one of the main reasons for the OBR projection that public sector net debt could reach 300% of GDP (or more).

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

While fewer children should mean less spending on education, the large rise in older generations will have big implications for the cost of health and welfare (including the state pension).

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is a triple celebration: Canada Day marking 159 years as a self-governing nation, a historic men's World Cup win, and the (relatively) healthy state of Canada's federal government finances.

Read more: https://t.co/XqNpl08IrW

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My latest #chartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on the current plan to deliver a current budget surplus in the public finances that the incoming prime minister and chancellor (whoever they be) will inherit from their predecessors.

Read more: https://t.co/3K9yZ5hcXK

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on the unemployment rate of 5% and employment rate of 75% this week and how they don't add up to 100%.

Read more: https://t.co/uTAayypRxo

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on the OBR's latest forecast evaluation report, showing the big differences between the March 2024 one-year forecast for the 2024/25 fiscal deficit of £87bn and the £152bn outturn.

Read more: https://t.co/oySqucnaQA

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

@BenZaranko @anandMenon1 One solution would be 10-year forecast periods, similar to the Congressional Budget Office projections in the US.

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

@BenZaranko @anandMenon1 The main problem is the 5 year forecast period, as while the OBR does incorporate the growth benefits of both public and private investment most of the return will inevitably be beyond 5 years, especially with a couple of years to get through planning and then time to build.

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on the top 20 military spenders in 2025 according to @SIPRIorg. The NATO plan to up it to 3.5% of GDP should see the size of the blue circles other than the US increase significantly over the coming decade. Read more: https://t.co/couOTU9SNY

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

@DanNeidle The good news is that governments (in theory) are able to work to longer timescales. Relatively small incremental changes each year could make a big difference over a quarter of a century.

Of course that means having a plan.

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on how the number of people aged 65+ is projected by the @ONS to rise by 34% over the next 25 years, in contrast with a 1% rise in working age adults.

This will be a major challenge for the UK’s public finances.

https://t.co/ST5vRbB8JZ

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

As the accompanying article sets out there is a lot more going under the hood with a 9% drop in those living in couple households with 3+ dependent children, a 30% increase in those over 65 living alone, and a 30% increase in lone parent families.

https://t.co/SWUcUUx1LQ

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @ICAEW is on how the overall shape of the households we live in has not really changed over the last quarter of a century.

Read more: https://t.co/SWUcUUx1LQ

[Martin Wheatcroft FCA @mwheatcroftfca]

Visually the proportions look very similar, even though there has been a 0.4 percentage point (pp) reduction in the proportion living in families with children, 0.3pp fewer living in a couple without children, 0.5pp more living alone or sharing and 0.2pp more living elsewhere.