Mark W Tebbutt

IT professional. 0 direct carbon & air pollution home 2011 to 2015 & 2024 - onwards. Electric car driver since March 2011. Heat pump installed Dec-2024.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

When will GB electricity prices fall?

I asked ChatGPT at what percentage of gas generation GB power prices start to drop and when that happens. The answer is from 2028.

Gas still sets UK power prices most of the time even though it was only about 26.8 percent of generation in 2025. That keeps bills tied to volatile fossil markets. The shift comes when gas falls into the 10 to 15 percent backup range and when renewables and storage begin to set the marginal price instead.

Wind rises from 28 percent in 2023 to about 52 percent by 2030. Storage grows from 7 GWh in 2023 to about 100 GWh by 2030 which is about 12 percent of daily demand. Gas falls from 33 percent to about 8 percent by 2030 and then drops to about 5 percent by 2032. At that point gas no longer drives wholesale prices.

Projects like Thurrock which combines a 300 MW 600 MWh battery with 450 MW of flexible engines show the direction of travel. Clean. Reliable. Flexible.

Wind is now the UK’s cheapest new power. With storage it will undercut gas entirely. Ninety five percent clean power by 2030 is credible. It is practical. It is affordable. It is already underway.

The blue band in the chart marks the point where gas falls below the level that sets prices which is when GB electricity prices will start to decline.

#NetZero #Climate #Energy #EV #HeatPump #BESS #CleanPower #OffshoreWind #UKEnergy

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@GeoConservative @ejwwest @XCarcallaX @robinmonotti Stick to doing that as your far better at it than climate science. 👍

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

The real-world experiment shows that crop yields increased while genetics, fertilisers, irrigation, mechanisation and crop protection improved dramatically.

You can’t simply attribute all of that to CO₂.

CO₂ fertilisation is real, but it isn’t unlimited. Plants become constrained by water, nutrients and temperature, and elevated CO₂ reduces protein and micronutrient concentrations in many staple crops.

More CO₂ can mean more plant mass. It does not automatically mean more food or better nutrition.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

.@JeremyClarkson Farming has shown you that climate change is real.

Your response then seems to be: “Well, there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It’s true that we can’t avoid all the impacts that are already happening. Some are now unavoidable.

But we can still influence how much worse it gets.

Every tonne of CO₂ we don’t emit reduces future warming. Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces the risks to farming, food production, water supplies, ecosystems and communities.

Climate change isn’t a switch that’s either on or off. It’s a scale. The more we reduce emissions, the less severe the impacts become.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@CupoJoeBlow @JeremyClarkson Science disagrees.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

Climate models aren’t designed to predict every wiggle in a single dataset. They’re designed to project the long-term response of the climate system.

The observed record shows exactly that:

~0°C warming in the late 1800s → ~1.5°C warming today.

If the models were fundamentally wrong, why has the planet continued warming as atmospheric CO₂ rose from ~280 ppm to >430 ppm?

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@GeoConservative @ejwwest @XCarcallaX @robinmonotti 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

Human population growth since 1800 is one of humanity’s greatest achievements, driven by improved farming, sanitation, vaccines, antibiotics, clean water and modern medicine.

It doesn’t demonstrate that unlimited warming is beneficial.

If higher temperatures automatically improved human welfare, the hottest regions on Earth would have the highest agricultural productivity and life expectancy. They don’t.

The question isn’t whether humanity has prospered. It’s whether additional warming beyond today’s climate helps or harms us. The evidence increasingly points to greater risks from heatwaves, droughts, floods, wildfires and sea-level rise.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

Crops need water, fertile soil, CO₂, sunshine and warmth.

They also need temperatures to stay within biological limits, reliable rainfall, pollinators, and protection from droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires.

Extra CO₂ can boost growth under controlled conditions, but the benefits diminish as temperatures rise and water becomes limiting. Higher CO₂ also reduces protein and micronutrient content in many staple crops.

Modern yield gains are largely due to better genetics, fertilisers, irrigation, mechanisation and crop protection, not climate change.

Farmers don’t plant crops in greenhouses at 50°C for a reason.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

Water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas, but it’s short-lived and rains out within days to weeks.

CO₂ is different. It remains in the atmosphere for centuries, warming the planet and allowing the air to hold more water vapour.

Water vapour mainly acts as a feedback. CO₂ is the forcing that pushes the climate system out of balance.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

2012: Berkeley Earth BEST project was set up by a climate sceptic team of scientists to audit temperature data from scratch using different methods. It confirmed the same warming trend as NASA, NOAA and the Met Office.

“I was not expecting this, but as a scientist, I feel it is my duty to let the evidence change my mind.” https://t.co/eV5gRM41h7

Different teams. Different methods. Same result.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@GeoConservative @ejwwest @XCarcallaX @robinmonotti Not relevant

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

https://t.co/r458BQcN4Y

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@GeoConservative @ejwwest @XCarcallaX @robinmonotti

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@jdthatch1 @JeremyClarkson https://t.co/ubSVDRdS1o

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@jdthatch1 @JeremyClarkson More than 80% of UK farmers worried about climate crisis harming livelihood, study finds

Farmers warn of risk to Britain’s food supply as more than three-quarters take hit to income from extreme weather https://t.co/psjKiUbN9g

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@MDC12345678 https://t.co/ubSVDRdS1o

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

The article treats Net Zero purely as a cost while ignoring the costs of doing nothing.

UK electricity prices surged because gas prices surged. Wind and solar did not cause the 2022 energy crisis; expensive gas did.

It also ignores air pollution, NHS costs, climate damages, flood risk, crop losses and the UK’s growing dependence on imported fossil fuels.

A serious discussion should compare the costs of action with the costs of inaction, not pretend the latter are zero.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

Human respiration is carbon-neutral.

The carbon you exhale came from food, and that carbon was recently taken from the atmosphere by plants.

Fossil fuels are different because they release carbon that has been locked underground for millions of years.

That’s why atmospheric CO₂ is rising.

We also observe declining atmospheric O₂ and the fossil-fuel isotopic fingerprint in atmospheric carbon, which human breathing cannot explain.

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@annonymous24601 @dakppc @JeremyClarkson More than 80% of UK farmers worried about climate crisis harming livelihood, study finds

Farmers warn of risk to Britain’s food supply as more than three-quarters take hit to income from extreme weather. https://t.co/psjKiUbN9g

[Mark W Tebbutt @mwt2008]

@rustyynail888 @AssaadRazzouk 97% of material in batteries can now be recycled and change cycles are increasing every year.

[Electrek.co @ElectrekCo]

BYD says its cast aluminum frame is lighter, tougher, and safer than steel https://t.co/rDWopI3kcm by @volvojo1