mawo

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

The market moves because of Market Makers delivering a sustainable move in a certain direction, not because of headlines.

It takes insane amounts of capital to actually push price in one direction with real momentum. Retail isn’t doing that. Not even close. The only players capable of delivering those kinds of moves are market makers and large institutions.

The market therefore is highly manipulated.

Because in order to fill positions large enough to deliver a significant pivot, they need a lot of liquidity. Which is created through deviations of highs and lows tapping into pools of liquidity while deploying bullish news event at the highs creating break-out longers and bearish news triggers at the lows trapping break-out shorters.

An aggressive move in the market is either the follow through of a confirmed accumulation/distribution model or it is manipulating to create the taps of a schematic.

Actually understanding this will cause you to look at the market from a completely different perspective:

If price explodes upwards, it’s not ‘because of the news’, it’s because demand was already positioned to overpower supply. Same thing to the downside. The imbalance was there first. The news just gives them the liquidity and volatility to push it harder and faster.

That’s also why following headlines will always keep you chasing. They can literally say A and do B. Meanwhile, the chart has already been telling the real story through accumulation and distribution patterns —> or in other words #TCT models.

Once mastered you can flip the script completely, instead of asking ‘what will the news do to price?’, you start looking at price and ask “what kind of narrative would justify this move?”

That’s a totally different level of thinking.

Use my macro calls on $USOIL as an example. Filter on my account and ask yourself how I was able to predict the pivot months in advance prior to any ‘news’ regarding a war with Iran.

That’s the game. Institutions position early, then use events to maximize profit on the move they were already building. They’re not reacting, they’re engineering liquidity and extracting from it consistently.

So yeah, technical analysis is king but not in the way most people use it. It works when you are able understand accumulative/distributive price behavior… only then are you reading the footprints of the people who move the market before the news even exists.

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

$BTC [volume analysis]

As you all should know, I like to keep my trading simple and easy to understand. After all, the #TCT trading system is built on simplifying Wyckoff allowing us to use it effectively.

I don't monitor volume on a consistent basis during my day to day trading simply because I don't need it. The way the candles develop and structure can already give me extremely high confidence levels for my setups. However because we are monitoring a HTF distribution setup on BTC, let's check some volume while keeping it basic:

If price is unable to expand past our first high 'A', with a certain amount of buying volume. And then proceeds to take out high A on even lower volume (see high B), it will deviate and not expand above. If then price makes another high, high C, on yet again lower volume, the expectancy should be for price to deviate --> not break-out.

The most simple comparison I can give is to imagine someone trying to break through a door by kicking through it:

If the person on attempt A delivered a slam kick with power level 580, and the door did not break (imagine 580 mill in buying volume at high A). Do you think the person is able to break the door on attempt B with a power level of 500 --> answer is no, he is not.

When combining that with the clear absorption that is going on at the most recent deviation where big effort is leading to zero result (Wyckoff terminology) it becomes obvious to me that Market Makers are setting up another well prepared distribution scheme.

If a +200 mil volume range (effort) is able to make BTC expand +6% and continue higher (result), and moments later after deviating the range high, double the buying volume (effort) leads to an immediate bearish rotation (no result) --> there is clear absorption.

The thing with volume, based on my personal experience, is that you always need to combine it with structure. I have seen it in multiple times where all of a sudden, price pushes higher --> volume picks back up --> volume divergence gets invalidated.

But when combined with #TCT distribution schematic confirmations it becomes extremely high confluence.

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

$BTC [update V4]

And yet again price is slowly but surely proving our accuracy once again, following the orderflow objective from the model 1 #TCT distribution schematic.

On March 20th I uploaded my 3rd video elaborating on the BTC price action (see quoted post), given you all the re-confirmation that stated very clear:

BTC will take out the range low at 62.4K prior to taking the high at 76K.

One statement, one confirmation, one playbook.

Nothing but pure clarity vs almost everyone else on this platform drawing a million lines and then telling the 'I told you so' from a typical hindsight perspective.

We then continued to short the major pivots on the highest probability #TCT distribution setups across the board and yet again profited massively with the entire community of another harsh rejection.

This has basically what we have been doing since Q4 2025 on repeat.

We genuinely have gotten to a point where I don't even have that much engagement with my posts anymore because no one is arguing with the provided analyses ahahahhaa.

They just see the video, know what to expect, accept its the reality, and move on.

If you, again, did not profit of this current momentum in the market, I don't know what else to show you for you to start delivering that input.

It's all there for you to watch and get inspired.

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

Seeing multiple posts and videos all over social media with people talking about insider trading taking place due to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of options contract getting opened right before the Trumps's tweet on Monday that pumped Tradfi markets such as NQ with +600 points.

Insider trading is not something that only takes place occassionally. Markets are ran through insider trading and institutions positioning themselves prior to external news events taking place in order to profit massively of every expansion.

Causing the markets for them to be an infinite money extracting mechanism.

But guess what?

They may be abe to hide external news events from retail, but they can't hide the footprints they leave behind on the chart when trying to position themselves for maximum profits. And I am here consistently showing you WHAT those footprints actually look like.

How to identify it, how to confirm it, and most importantly --> how to trade it systematized.

I am telling you that technical analyses rules these markets and when you actually start to understand the models I am consistently showcasing, it becomes very easy to connect the dots related to news event.

Just yesterday during after hours we see a textbook extended #TCT model 2 accumulation on NQ and a textbook #TCT model 1 distribution on USOIL. Both getting completed at the same time on the same candle during the same news trigger of Trump talking peace deals and friendships with Iran.

This is not a coincidence.

I sometimes see comments referring to how the markets are untradable right now due to the volume of news triggers taking place. That is incorrect.

It's a skill issue.

Put in the work and get the output.

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

$BTC [macro]

Markets, especially BTC, moves from liquidity to liquidity. If price is moving it is either searching for a liquidity point or it is building/creating liquidity.

If you are able to identify how liquidity is building up, it becomes extremely simple to establish a correct HTF orderflow expectation (orderflow expectation = what is price most likely going to do next).

If price is deviating highs while building lows, price is taking out buyside liquidity while creating sellside liquidity. Operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from buyside- to sellside liquidity becomes the conclusion.

Therefore expectational orderflow = bearish reversal

If price is deviating lows while building highs, price is taking out sellside liquidity while creating buyside liquidity. Again operating from the perspective that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity and the rotation from sellside- to buyside liquidity becomes the conclusion.

Therefore expectational orderflow = bullish reversal

It is incredibly simple and extremely effective.

Now take it a step further and combine it with actual systematic Wyckoff rules and you are getting closer to one of the most precise entry systems.... #TCT

[Isaac @imantradingYT]

Well, the video on TJR got taken down. I was expecting that. In the meantime, here's the entire video. So, take a look at what is trying to be hid from you.

[mawo @mxzenki]

@lava_xbt I respect you and really appreciate your transparency also with the DOGE position. May i ask please what changed your opinion so quickly? You were bullish 2 days ago AFAIK.

Was it the weak weekly close back inside the range after the daily BOS and then no strong continuation?

[ChainHub @ChainHubCT]

What I was seeing here was:
1) Accumulation (internal) but I think many people knew that already.
2) Value building and accepting higher (POC migration) above the 3W profile.
3) The next main pivot for BTC is around 9 March.

BTC pumped higher than range highs and was able to close above it with 12H candles. The quoted post was for the next week and not what happened the past week. But is a deviation or a breakout?
Debatable but if it is a breakout then BTC should absolutely hold this current area we are in (preferable not going lower than 66k).
The PA is showing signs of distribution which is not something I wanted to see.

So critical week coming up for BTC. A pivot and either a distribution and dump back down to new lows (I did an update on where I am looking as next target for BTC on my TL couple weeks ago) or we get a bullish continuation.

If I go back into previous updates. I mentioned a mid January pivot for BTC and another main one for ETH around 8 February.
So far the bottom of 6 Feb is still holding which means the main pivot of ETH is still playing out but it's taking time to see upside which we should be seeing in a bullish phases for ETH. Due to momentum and counter-trend environment, it's harder to see upside in these phases.
The next main phase for BTC after failing mid-January is around 9 March (chart in the pic).
This bullish phase (which I mentioned before) lasts until mid April ish.

PS: If the bearish case happens (and we don't pump in this bullish phase) and the bullish case gets invalidated, then maybe the next phase provides the big relief rally (from Mid April to mid June) and perhaps from 44k key level.

Some arguments of why I am still not flipping bearish entirely yet:

1) CNY: Historically speaking, CNY has always marked a significant bottom and/or bullish continuation for BTC. Titanic historically is the opposite, it marks a top or bearish continuation. Only in 2025, it was the inverse but this pattern is a fact. The current 6 Feb low happened just before CNY. Next week is the first week after CNY.
-> Using this argument, the bullish case looks more favorable or else this year will also be an inverse (not likely).

2) OIL: My main target for OIL is 95$ which is a huge target and supply there. Likely OIL won't be able to break that level on a first attempt. Yes OIL is imo going much higher (likely new ATH) over the next year but it won't be in 1 candle. This 95$ target is now very close so peace talk over the MEA is not something I would be surprised if it happens and this would be the catalyst for risk to outperform in these uncertainties. This reminds me of June 2025.

3) Russia-Ukraine: A war happened around the same time in 2022. BTC found the bottom at the same date of invasion (24 Feb 2022) just after CNY marking the bottom, but it wasn't until 14 March when we saw the real upside happen with a 30-40% move on BTC and topped just before Titanic. Again the same pattern in 1.

4) BVOL: At resistance. Every time this chart is at support or resistance, it marks a HTF shift. To guess which direction this shift and HTF move is going to be, you need BTC. Is BTC at demand or Supply? Obviously at demand, so it's likely that the next shift is up and not down.

5) Psychology: It's not any surprise that this game and in general life is a psychological warfare. It's engineered this way. And the people are the victims.
If you look at sentiment today, it's the worst it has ever been. How worse can it get? We have literally WW3. There is nothing worse than that.
Look where consensus is standing at: literally everyone is looking at that 2022 fractal still and once enough people accept it as the 'secret sauce' that's when whales shift it. Today, we have everyone believing in it and that's the main reason why it's so hard for me to shift bias. I never want to be in consensus side. People think 40-50k by Q4 2026 for a 4 year bottom. It's never that easy. That scenario is likely not happening. Whales will make sure 40-50k gets front-run and people stay sidelined or they nuke it much much lower (why I think 28k will be the bottom).
If the bearish scenario happens and we get the relief from 44k, this would be too easy for retail and likely not profitable for whales.
What would make sense the most to me when it comes to psychology and if I were to think as a whale: Pump BTC back to 90s, people will scream no more bear market or bottom bear market and FOMO at the top just for another crash to happen to wipe them all back to 40-50k. At 40-50k, some people might bid since it's where they expect the bottom to be and that level barely holds and fails so it nukes to sub 30k with insane bearish narratives going around and they fumble the bear market lows.

6) This one is extra. I want to bring out DOGE. Look at the chart, zoom out on the macro. You want to convince me that this is a place where I should be selling DOGE?? Macro POC, Macro demand. The last time DOGE was here, it pumped almost 5X. The next optimal level is around 0.06$ which I think will come in the future. But in order to get it, DOGE needs to lose that 2024 low which is a very hard level to lose on a first attempt. It likely needs at least 2 attempt.
It doesn't make any sense to me to be bearish on that chart down there after 5 months of excessive selling.

Conclusion: Eyes like a hawk on next week and BVOL👁️

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

We are a few days into March;

New Years resolutions are forgotten. The ‘discipline’ at the start of January going into February has faded away. And maybe the first 2 months of this year have not been the start you were hoping to have.

That makes this moment right here, this exact moment as you are reading this message, the perfect opportunity to get ahead again.

Exactly now when most other people are already setting their eyes on the upcoming summer you have the chance to differentiate yourself.

Invest in yourself, get mentors, learn, practice, repeat, get in shape, NOW.

Time is limited.

Let this be a wake up call for anyone that needed to hear it.

[ChainHub @ChainHubCT]

Bitcoin (Update (long one with some educational material))

I am still expecting a sweep of 60k before the reversal (prepared for it to happen but it might not). We finally have WW3 news again and it's finally getting spread after OIL has been bullish and this war is 100% not a coincidence when you look at the clues on the OIL chart I posted. I think OIL is still bullish for the next year but there is a crucial resistance at 71$ which reminds me of June 2025 spike into resistance and risk on outperformed. Uncertainties at peaks always lead to risk on outperformance. I will de-risk off of Oil at market open if I see spike to 71$.

Couple weeks ago, I had my doubts on 72k key level. There is no surprise that BTC is now in a bear market and I said that back when BTC was at 125k and that the top is too good to not lead to significant downside. I also said that if 72k fails, price might go sub 60k prices as there is no demand in between.
72k became a short level and this is why BTC topped locally there.

So the HTF trend is extremely bearish and trying to catch a HTF falling knife is very very hard unlike many people assume. Counter trending on HTF is the hardest job in the world and this is why people think that because key levels are getting smoked that it's becoming bearish.

In a bearish downtrend, you can't expect (it could happen though) a reversal at the VAH which is around 70k aligned with the key level. Longing VAH and the imbalance there is only good when you are trying to catch a bullish momentum/continuation trade. 72k was a great level for bullish continuation like back in April 2025 before the start of the bear market. Yes it got front run anyway (not on the EUR pair tho) but that's maybe because many traders were trying to long there and MMs front ran them? (I remember big social media accounts back then told people to buy at 72-73k). If 72k didn't get front run and hit in April 2025, the odds of it working would have been much much higher than reversing a HTF bearish trend. The VAH being a LVN (low volume node and imbalance) and a LVN is an area where price doesn't spend time there nor builds volume which means it's a thin area where price slices fast or rejects fast. Using the context here, most likely price slices through it to go to the POC. That's the main reason why 72k failed, not enough demand to reverse price. Imbalances (LVNs) got completely filled without reversing price.

Now at the POC, it is the most balanced price (where buyers and sellers agreed the most). There is no imbalance as it's deep inside value. In order to reverse a trend, price needs to visit imbalance and normally not inside value.
POC which is around 63k (around current bottom) providing support right now. There is also a 2M OB (pic on the chart) there (more confluence). So there is clean liquidity there along the POC and that's why BTC bottomed there so far.
Yes we have more buyers and sellers in this range because it broke higher back in late 2024 but is imbalance significant? The range took 250 days to break up so the buyers that wanted to buy there already did. The inventory is heavily distributed in this range and since we are in a HTF bearish trend, is reversing inside balance a high probability? I don't think so.

At the VAL, at 59k ish, there is the macro golden pocket there (extra confluence), that's where imbalance is great (outside of value). So anything below 59k is buy opportunity on BTC until 44-46k which is the most significant demand on the chart before 28k. A HTF reversal there makes sense before maybe eventually heading to sub 30k prices. 57k-58k has the golden pocket and 53k-55k has the LVN where price should bounce fast since it's a thin area.
44-46k is in a different demand level, and since we are on the first tap of summer 2024 demand, is it likely to go to the next one without any reversal on it? Likely not and this is why I am not expecting 44-46k prices in the very near future, it could happen tho and I have LOs there.

Never underestimate trying to guess the exact reversal price when trading in a counter-trend. This is why I am sticking to Spot until we get a BOS. The exact price reversal only happens on OPTIMAL levels and the only optimal levels I see here is 44-46k. 72k was too weak for countering a trend.
In summary, VAH works only in a trending environment and in counter-trending environment, POC and VAL works. To know which one will reverse price is to find more confluences or context. In BTC context, we have a 2M OB at the POC but since it's such a big range (more value), most likely VAL (extreme imbalance of the range) will work along with the Golden Pocket.

Couple weeks ago, I also talked about the 2022 fractal which I am expecting we diverge from it at some point. It has been taking more than I anticipated. The 2026 structure is so different than 2022. We have HTF demand levels here but in 2022, all we had is 'Air' and LVNs which price can slice through easily.
40-50k is very consensus right now and that it reaches this price by Q4 2026. This scenario will 99% never happen. Once BTC diverges from this fractal, people will be so confused. I am still expecting significant upside to the 90s for BTC before heading back lower. And people underestimate how high Altcoins can go when BTC is putting a lower high.

When it comes to time and cycles. We still have a lot of time until the period of risk starts again which is around late March to mid April.
Initially, BTC's most dominant cycle had the low in mid January while ETH had it early February (mainly 8 Feb in my last update). Mid January only gave a 10% pump for BTC and so far 6 Feb has been the low (Argument to be made that bottom is in because 6feb low is significant). Cycles are only +1 confluence and this is why many times they diverge well. So they aren't perfect at all. This is why you need more confluences and mainly S&D principles to understand where to buy and not only when. This post is providing some BTC explanation when it comes to Demand and why we are seeing BTC dumping this much and where to buy.

As of now, I only gave back my shorts profits to the market from October 2025 in unrealized losses. But I think I will be able to make profits. I bought in late December/early January a portion and then added at 62k BTC and still have some to deploy in case 44-46k (worst case scenario) happens. I can use the profits from OIL (up 30%) to rotate to crypto at 44-46k.

Conclusion:
I am expecting a very very aggressive reversal if we tap under VAL or 44-46k BTC. We have BVOL at resistance which marked each time HTF reversal. We are at HTF demand with BTC 50%+ away from ATH and 5months of consistent red months along with ETHBTC at optimal reversal level, do you really think the next HTF move is to the downside especially with WW3 threats looming around?

People who still don't get how trading works, they think trading is the same job as fortune telling. If you think trading is about 'guessing' the exact prices and time, then go find yourself a fortune teller and not a trader. My job is to buy low and sell high over the years and compound the gains. Executing a trade is so different than finding/guessing the exact level. Yes sometimes the execution can be too smooth and easy if price decides to be perfect with you but not always.

I am not a delusional bull here at all like some have called me to be. I was a bear at 125k and all timestamped and in no way I am bearish down here. Time will tell but what I do know is that I always buy war invasions especially when every single person in the crypto market is convinced the bear market is under away and are waiting with their 'barbers' for sub 50k prices by Q4 2026 to buy the next bear market bottom. IT WILL NEVER BE THAT EASY. Avoid consensus. Even in 2022 (mid bear market) look what happened when Russia invaded Ukraine.

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

It should be no surprise to you by now that the current bombing is yet again taking place during the weekend……

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

3 days ago, a 27 year old girl from my town died of a brain tumor.

Since then, I haven’t been able to do anything but stop and reflect.

I found myself asking: what if something like this happened to me?

We spend so much of our lives projected into the future: becoming someone, building, accumulating, proving, appearing and in a way, that’s right.

It’s healthy to want to grow, to care about your future, not to live passively.

But in front of something like this, sudden and merciless, that entire mental structure collapses in an instant.

All the fears we had about the future.
All the insecurities about showing up as we are.
All the problems we magnify every day.

They disappear.

It’s almost unsettling to realize how many of the things that steal our peace that make us feel late, inadequate, under pressure are, in comparison, nothing.

Literally nothing.

Not to deny that life has real struggles, but in terms of perspective: it takes only 1 event like this to instantly shrink what once felt enormous.

We are incredibly fortunate simply because we are here.

Because we can breathe without thinking about it.

Because we still have time ahead, or at least the perception that we do.

And yet we fill that time with needless anxieties, sterile comparisons, expectations we place on ourselves or imagine others place on us.

Sometimes we truly worry about nothing. About nothing at all.

Then something happens that breaks normality, and perspective shifts in a second.

You realize that life isn’t what you’re postponing to “when things get better,” to “when I achieve…,” to “when I become…”.

Life is now, while you think you’re just preparing for the future.

This isn’t an invitation to stop building, planning, aspiring.

It’s an invitation not to forget that all of that only has meaning if, in the meantime, you are actually living.

If you are loving the people beside you.
If you are saying the things that matter.
If you are allowing yourself to be, not only to become.

Because sometimes it takes a story, a loss, a life cut too short, to remind us that time is not guaranteed, that the future is not a right, and that the normality we take for granted is already a profound form of luck.

So maybe the most honest question isn’t “what should I do with my life?”
but: am I truly living it, while I have it?

[Wyckoff Paradox @wyckoff_paradox]

Spot made simple

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

$ETHBTC

Potential bullish PO3 into HTF Structure Demand.

If confirmations are present I would expect price to deliver a bullish rotation towards the naked high. Technical Target however remains the local range high.

Last time we saw a similar potential bullish pivot like the current one was on the 22nd of June, go and monitor the price behavior back then.

Like I said previously, it's just a matter of confirmations that will decide if we get high-probability entry opportunities, but if we do --> I am sizing up.

[CryptoChase @CryptoChase02]

Interesting timing to say the least.

Likely going to have bullish price action until then. Hope starts to rebuild because most people are already down -80%. Whales give the public another platform to execute on, giving them more access to exit liquidity.

Retail recklessly bidding for higher on crypto to only get fuc*ed a couple of months later.

Don’t hate the player, hate the game. I guess.

[The Composite Trader @Larskooistra_]

$BTC

Video elaboration on BTC's macro bearmarket bottoming formation.

In this video I don't tell you what I want to happen for BTC, I tell and teach what NEEDS to happen in order for price to deliver macro bullish reversals.

I advice you guys to watch the entire video, take notes and be on the correct side of the market from a HTF expectational orderflow perspective.

Later I will write an in-depth post with different phases and potential playbooks within, but first I wanted to share my thoughts via video so every single one of you will understand the post better later on.

[mawo @mxzenki]

@zinceth @ethereumdegen

[Wyckoff Paradox @wyckoff_paradox]

MTF playbook. Acting on confirmation/invalidation.

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

To be happy you must eliminate 2 things:
the fear of a bad future and the memory of a bad past.

- Seneca -

[🎯 Master @Moneytaur_]

📌 10/10