A l’aiise

mort ou opérationnel

[Toki 🛸 @cestcaaoui]

Heureusement c’est filmer snn personne allais la croire

[Louis # 5017 📽🎬👁💯 @LouisBaltimore]

J'ai pas vu quelqu'un aussi bien rapper ses propres crimes depuis King Von mdrr..

[Le Parisien @le_Parisien]

Thaïlande : le gérant français d’un parc animalier refuse l’entrée aux Israéliens, la maison de sa mère visée par un incendie en France https://t.co/44EhtMoMoU

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Last week I posted a new paper with Patrick Norrick: “Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World.”

We chose the title deliberately. No society in history has experienced the fertility levels now seen in South Korea, China, Thailand, Colombia, Chile, and many other countries. Our knowledge of the causes (and of the economic consequences) remains far more limited than most public discussion acknowledges. Much of what we write is, at best, educated conjecture.

The paper also struggles against a space limit. We wrote 20,000 words, far from the 250,000 or so we would need to address some issues in more detail (if I had the time and resources to hide away for a year, I could do that, but not now). That means some ideas are only sketched.

Nonetheless, we emphasize several important points.

First, fertility has fallen very fast everywhere: rich and poor countries, east and west, north and south, conservative and liberal societies, religious and non-religious societies (with the exception of the Jewish population of Israel; fertility has also collapsed among the Muslim population within the pre-1967 borders), you name it. Even in sub-Saharan Africa we see fast and unprecedented drops in fertility (alas, from a high initial level).

Second, and this is really interesting, the fertility collapse has been concentrated in poor and lower-middle-income countries much more than in rich countries. By now, income per capita and fertility are positively correlated within OECD countries. We conjecture this will hold globally in a few decades.

Third, and related to the second point, the fertility collapse has been concentrated among poor and lower-middle-income women within countries. In countries such as the U.S., the rich and highly educated now have more children than the poor and less educated.

Fourth, we document why we do not understand the data from the U.N. World Population Prospects. See, for example, Tables A.1 and A.2.

Fifth, we explain why some proposed mechanisms struggle when confronted with the data.

A more subtle point is at work here. Many commentators do not seem to understand the difference between proximate causes and ultimate causes. Yes, births might have gone down because fewer women are in long-run relationships. That is the proximate cause. But you need to explain why fewer women are in long-run relationships (the ultimate cause), and saying that they spend more years in school, to take one example, does not get us very far. Why do they spend more years in school? Once you start down the whole chain of reasoning, things become much harder than they seem.

The paper can be found here:

https://t.co/VrCHr0lBPa

Comments always welcome!

[A l’aiise @na2ss_]

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Housseme @tarovitch]

15 pour un seul café pendant 4h....

MDRRR non y a pas besoin d'en dire plus

[A l’aiise @na2ss_]

Le maillot dédicacé Mbappé 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[𝔸𝔹𝕂 @213abk]

zehma il s’habille en CP Compagny en B30, il ramène des raclis chez lui et tout ça sur du Booba

même le neveu de Macron bande sur la rue c’est terrible mdrrrrrrrrr

[dan @DanAV___]

this and an 8pm kickoff in the champions league >>

[Mjinina @Yoyospp]

J’ai eu ce matin sur mon feed Instagram une vidéo illustrant ça. Je n’ai rien contre eux, ils font leur vie, mais le 2 poids, 2 mesures est phénoménal. Les puritains de la laïcité et les universalistes du Printemps républicain ne parleront ni de radicalisation ni de séparatisme.

[Hassan Mafi ‏ @thatdayin1992]

Europeans realizing ISIS suddenly started to speak Spainsh after Spain spoke up against "Israel"

[Hemant Mohapatra @MohapatraHemant]

The curse of discipline is that every day looks the same. The curse of indiscipline is that every year does.

[P0liticalbaby 🇵🇸🇨🇩 @P0liticalbaby]

I find the rigidity of the UK class structure fascinating. He is broke as shit, but is still upper class due to his aristocratic background. Meanwhile, A Partner at a Magic Circle Law Firm earns multiples more but won’t be considered upper-class like him.

[nain poire @Rizzibria18]

C’est vraiment pas le même monde que nous les gars MDRRR

[Mike 🇸🇳 @magicmike340]

T'as défendu l'arabe timide de la classe et 10ans après il te revoit et te dit de pas monter dans l'avion

[V Switchyion @AdamLothbrok]

Y'a quelqu'un qui avait dit que c'était un élevage de freeze corleone gt mor

[Parisian Aesthetics @Parisianaes1]

Stunning paintings of Paris at night, in 1994 by the artist Michel Delacroix 🖼️

[A l’aiise @na2ss_]

Dites vous on partage le pays avec tous ces fdp

[Le Petit Journaliste @LePtiJrnliste]

🚨LIVE: 💊💸 À l’ouverture d’un point de deal dans un quartier d’Échirolles (Isère), les trafiquants écoulent de la cocaïne à un rythme effréné. En quelques minutes, plusieurs centaines d’euros changent de mains, illustrant la rentabilité et l’ancrage du trafic de stupéfiants.

[조나단 @MacJohnathan]

내가 자연에 대해 얼마나 모르고 있었는지 이 영상 보고 깨달음

[Ilias @Khemsv]

Ça me fait penser à ce prêche de Sheikh Raslan

[A l’aiise @na2ss_]

On dirait des billets de Monopoly (sauf le design E)

[BFM @BFMTV]

À quoi ressembleront les futurs billets en euros ? Donnez votre avis !

La BCE lance une consultation publique sur les graphismes des prochains billets de banque européens. Les citoyens sont invités à voter jusqu'au 21 septembre 2026, sur le site de la BCE.

#BFM2