Debunking some propaganda about Lebanon:. 1) Lebanon is a democracy. A pacted democracy organized through political sectarianism, with regular elections, voting & political competition. It is definitely an imperfect system, but no less a “democracy” than a state that practices +
Here's a megathread on the war on Iran that focuses on the deeper dynamics, potential trajectories, and likely outcomes.
A lot will change over the next few weeks - this thread is about what won't.
Stay until the end for an announcement & an invitation.
The US-Iranian War: a best case scenario
People are wondering what are the best options the US currently have in Iran. My answer:
Do Vietnam very quickly, quit, then make a rapprochement based on the understanding of mutual respect and recognition
(like it was in Vietnam)
People underestimate the catastrophes this single moment of strategic suicide unleashed: Gaza/WB/Golan Occupation, black september, Lebanese civil war, camp David, west bank settlements, Oslo, Intifadas, Gaza genocide all would've never happened to name a few
The fact the Middle East has to pay an entire century of instability and intermittent war because the Europeans decided to genocide their Jewish population is insane.
I opposed sanctions on Iran - which have been insanely effective in recent years in destroying the country’s economy.
Why? Because they strengthen the elite via national isolation, weaken civil society, destroy Iran’s middle class and, ironically, helped the government prepare for a war economy (rather handy now!)
But, fundamentally, a high consumption, open trading relationship with the West would have served to build bridges, meaning a widespread desire to embrace the global order.
Iran would contribute in its own unique way, of course, like South Korea perhaps, but would also have been shaped by such forces: tourists at Persepolis & Esfahan; ambitious young Iranians studying at Sciences Po, Harvard and the LSE; goods and services flowing east and west. Liberals said this stuff a 150 years ago, but seemed to have jettisoned the smartest part of their tradition.
Any sensible, informed person in London, Washington or Brussels should have understood this, and argued for this.
But they didn’t. Why?
Firstly, because many people in politics are stupid and don’t think for themselves. Social media is making this worse. The US government now has the cognitive function of a slop right podcast.
Secondly, particularly in the case of Europe - there was never an independent policy anyway (just follow Washington, even if their position is dumb). The dumber Washington gets the worse that is.
Thirdly, because Israel exercises a huge, outsized impact on how we conduct foreign policy in that part of the world. Think ending sanctions on Iran is smart? You must be an antisemite! No platform!
The best strategy - in the long term - if you wanted to soften the government of Iran, and influence outcomes inside the country? Trade with it. Buy and sell stuff.
Ironically the people who understood this best were Iranian conservatives - who opposed such a development.
@mayukh_panja Well If said developed country is the UK, then literally, as an Indian, your blood, sweat, tears, and stolen wealth generation after generation built the whole damn thing (including Canada and Australia)
مش صعبه: اي سلوك يكافئ يعاد.
عند كل مجزرة، يقابلها الغرب بصفقات سلاح ودعم سياسي، فطبيعي تكرّار السلوك.
عند كل مجزرة يقابلها العرب بمزيد من الهرولة للتطبيع و القبول، فمن الطبيعي أيضا تكرّار السلوك
@GoodwinMJ I mean factually speaking it was a group of Brits who murdered 52 people, half of whom were international expats/immigrants (many from outside Europe), going to work and growing Britain's economy
This is insane. In the past week alone Israel attacked the UN, bombed central Beirut, attacked aid convoys , burned people alive, threatened collective punishment against Lebanon unless it starts a civil war, and is starving Gaza
And Lammy sanctions Iran for “escalating”!!!
@lucienbourjeily@LebISF Totally agree with you, but in times of war and chaos there needs to be a strong deterrent like public shaming; otherwise things can get out of hand and lead to societal collapse. The same thing was done in Ukraine btw.
@DavidLammy Your Ally Israel used depleted uranium along with white phosphorus on my people (civilians) in Beirut, while all you had to say was "British citizens leave". To think I once used to believe in your values and "international law".