Nagham Writes

Markets, macro & investing — explained through stories. The Sunday Letter, Market Pulse & research for investors who want context, not noise.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

Welcome to the stock market—where smart people can be wrong, good companies can be bad investments, and every price move somehow produces 100 confident explanations.
Someone tells you NVDA is a buy.
Great. Thanks, dude. I needed to know that before everyone agreed.
That’s why I created Nagham Writes.
Instead of asking “What should I buy?”, I’m more interested in:
What happened?
Why did the market react?
What is already priced in?
What could change the story?
We’ll follow companies, earnings, macroeconomics, geopolitics—and the wonderfully irrational variable connecting them all: people.
Because numbers tell you what happened. The story helps explain why.
Money, read like people.
Welcome to Nagham Writes.

https://t.co/JaOumDbCOb

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

Your Cash Could Be Earning 5%. So Why Isn’t It?

Some U.S. high-yield savings options worth comparing:

• Axos ONE — up to 5.00% APY (promotional)
• Peak Bank — 4.27% APY
• Happen Bank — 4.20% APY
•SoFi — up to 4.20% APY for eligible new customers (six-month promotional rate)

Compare the fine print, not just the headline yield.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

@Briefingcom The divergence is what I’m watching: long yields remain near multi-decade highs while the Nasdaq sits at a record. That can coexist if earnings keep surprising higher—but it leaves much less room for disappointment.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

@wallstengine Another data point shows AI demand itself isn’t the weak link anymore. The harder question is conversion: how much of this demand becomes durable margins, free cash flow, and earnings strong enough to justify current valuations?

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

@jdmarkman The interesting part is that tech is still making records despite it. That suggests the market is betting earnings growth can overpower discount-rate pressure. The next earnings season becomes the real test of that assumption.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

@Greenbackd This is where the distinction matters: high yields don’t automatically kill equities, but they raise the earnings burden. The companies still making new highs now have to justify much richer expectations against a 5%+ risk-free alternative.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

@LizAnnSonders @ism The divergence is striking. A record Nasdaq-100 with fewer than half its securities above their 50-day averages doesn’t call the top, but it does show how dependent the index has become on a small group of mega-cap winners.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

Three things I’m watching next:
Breadth: can it move from ~46% toward 60%+?
Rates: does the 10-year fall below 5% or push above 5.5%?
Earnings: do revisions keep moving higher?
These are watch lines — not predictions.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

The Nasdaq is at a record.
Yet 55 of 101 Nasdaq-100 securities are below their 50-day moving averages.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury is above 5%.
AI demand is real.
Now earnings have to justify the price.

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

I broke down what’s underneath the record: market breadth, Treasury yields, Micron, the Q3 earnings bar—and why a potential Anthropic IPO matters.
The Nasdaq Is at a Record. Can AI Earnings Carry the Weight?
https://t.co/AJZnANkVX8

[Nagham Writes @naghamwrites]

Is the market going to crash?
Better question: What would have to break first?
A crash needs a trigger — and a way for the shock to spread.
Most weekly headlines have neither.
This week: why a delayed rate cut alone isn’t a crash trigger — unless it tightens credit, weakens earnings, or forces sellers.
The Sunday Letter, free every Sunday: what moved markets, what didn’t, and what could change the story next.

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