Nahum_Assefa

#TigrayGenocide_survivor Memories live longer than things
#ሳላኹምTDF 💊🙏 ዘላለማዊ ክብሪ ንተጋዳላይ  ትግራይ❤️💛
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[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

The Pretoria Agreement was signed with the blood sacrifice of Tigray’s youth to stop a devastating genocidal war and protect civilians.

Calling to dismantle it and return to war-era leadership—while entertaining alignment with actors like al-Shabaab, Islamic State, or authoritarian structures under Isaias Afwerki—is not strategy. It is a dangerous step backward.

Implementation of Pretoria is what protects civilians and preserves stability. Peace must not be abandoned. ⚠️🕊️

#PretoriaAgreement #Peace4Tigray #Tigray #HornOfAfrica #JusticeForTigray

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

3/3

#Tigray does not need another alliance of convenience built around enemies, weapons and political survival.

It needs IDPs returned home, civilians protected, institutions rebuilt, accountability and fully implementation of #PretoriaAgreement.

Another war may preserve the relevance of conflict-era elites but It will not rebuild Tigray.

#Tigray survived a catastrophic war.Its people should not become the currency of another elite political gamble.

Choose peace. Choose institutions. Choose the next generation.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

1/3

#TsemdoProcess risks becoming a dangerous political gamble for #Tigray.

During the 2020–22 war, Eritrean forces did not simply cross a border.

They were documented massacring civilians in #Axum, Mariam Shewito, Adwa, and other parts of Tigray, which carried out extrajudicial executions, rape, and sexual slavery, looted communities, and destroyed livelihoods across #Tigray.

#WesternTigray also saw #ethniccleansing and mass displacement.

These are not distant memories. The survivors are still among us.

History cannot be rewritten because political interests have changed.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

2/3

That is the danger of #TsemdoProcess.

Yesterday’s enemies can become today’s tactical partners when elites believe their survival requires it.

But who pays when that calculation fails?

Not the politicians or conflict-era elite.

It is the farmer, the displaced family, the unemployed youth, the disabled veteran and another generation asked to fight.

Elite alliances may change overnight. The graves they leave behind do not.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

3/3

The choice is still political:

De-escalate. Protect civilians. Return IDPs. Withdraw foreign/non-federal forces. Political dialogue and Fully implement of #PretoriaAgreement

Or risk reopening a war whose consequences will not stop at Tigray — but spread into an already fragile Horn and #RedSea region.

Tigray has already buried too many.

Peace must not require another generation to die first.

#Tigray #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

1/3

#Tigray is drifting toward danger again.

#WesternTigray fighting. Drone strikes. Military mobilization. Families once again living with the fear of war.

For people who survived 2020–22, these are not just “security developments.”

They are memories returning.

#Tigray #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

2/3

Three years after #PretoriaAgreement, Tigray is again drifting from fragile peace toward confrontation.

IDPs remain displaced. #WesternTigray remains unresolved. Foreign and non-federal forces remain an issue. Trust has eroded.

A ceasefire stopped the killing.

But stopping a war is not the same as building peace.

#Tigray #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

3/3

This chain is a fuse already burning.

If it explodes, the shockwaves will surge beyond Ethiopia into Sudan, Eritrea, the wider Horn and the Red Sea corridor.

Implement #PretoriaAgreement , withdraw foreign forces, verify compliance, ensure the safe return of IDPs and restore essential services and constructional order.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #RedSea #Sudan #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

1/3

Renewed fighting in Tigray now overlaps with continuing conflicts in Amhara and Oromia.

The Pretoria framework is weakening amid competing authorities, unresolved territorial control and reported clashes in #WesternTigray and drone strikes in different areas of Tigray. Civilians are again fleeing toward war-torn Sudan.

Hunger, fuel and cash shortages, youth migration and El Niño-related rainfall disruption deepen the pressure.

#Tigray #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

2/3

The #TsemdoProcess deepens that danger.

Its associated actors were once so divided that they would have wanted a mountain between them.Their hostility remains shared enemies and political survival have only buried it beneath military calculation.

Sudan is the warning next door by keep in mind METEC.

#TsemdoProcess #Tigray #Sudan #Ethiopia

[Ilyas M. Dawaleh @Ilyasdawaleh]

My Op-Ed, published in the latest issue of Addis Fortune.
A crisis at this strategic chokepoint could be far more catastrophic than the crisis in #Hormuz, with consequences reverberating well beyond the #RedSea across global Trade.Time to anticipate is now https://t.co/8EhNZmmY09

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

3/3

In August 2026, the convictions in Zewdu’s case were overturned because important digital evidence was not presented. The defendants were therefore acquitted. The reason for the missing evidence remains unclear, but the situation raises serious concerns.

Tigray, which endured one of the darkest wars of the century, faced the risk of being drawn back into a closed, militarized, and unaccountable political-security system reminiscent of the pre-2020 era. This path had already led to catastrophe in the past and continues to devastate Tigray.

Justice for Zewdu, civilian rule, and full implementation of the #PretoriaAgreement are essential. The country must resist the temptation to revert to politics of the gun.

#JusticeForZewdu #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

1/3

In August 2023, Zewdu Haftu was tragically killed in Mekelle. Her case quickly escalated beyond a murder trial, leading to the prosecution of Yared Gebreselassie and Angesom Hailemariam. Gebreselassie, a senior Army 22 political commissar and security figure, also held significant police authority.

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

2/3

By 2025, the trial faced disruptions, with Mekelle courts being temporarily suspended. Eventually, the defendants were convicted and sentenced to life in prison. During this time, Army 22 emerged as a powerful force capable of exerting pressure on civilian authorities and blocking roads in pursuit of pay and benefits.

By 2026, the struggle transcended the judicial realm. Critics accused Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction of resurrecting pre-war power structures, undermining the order established following the #PretoriaAgreement, and steering Eritrean-linked regional politics through the so-called #TsemdoProcess.

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

3/3

The warning is no longer theoretical. This week, a Houthi attack in Bab el-Mandeb killed six people, while growing maritime threats are already changing tanker movements and raising risks along the Red Sea corridor.

Here converge shipping, energy, ports, aviation, naval power, logistics and digital infrastructure connecting Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Another Tigray war would not automatically become a Red Sea war.

But if war returns, it would erupt beside an international corridor already under pressure from Middle East conflict.

A regional crisis could become a global one.

The #PretoriaAgreement, Ethiopia–Eritrea de-escalation and serious regional dialogue are therefore firebreaks against a wider confrontation.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

1/3

The danger in #Tigray is no longer simply another war.

It is where that war would begin and the regional system surrounding it.

#Tigray sits between Eritrea, #Sudan and Ethiopia’s interior, while the #PretoriaAgreement remains fragile.

If war returns to Tigray, it will not just reopen old wounds—it could deepen Ethiopia’s fractures and widen an already dangerous regional crisis.

Tigray is the fault line.
Ethiopia–Eritrea is the escalation axis.
Sudan is the multiplier.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

2/3

The real danger is not simultaneous crises.
It is interaction.

A renewed #Tigray war could intensify #Ethiopia–Eritrea threat perceptions, widen border militarization and intersect with Sudan’s war and armed networks.

When these security dilemmas begin feeding one another, separate wars stop being isolated crises and become pathways for wider escalation.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Addis Standard @addisstandard]

Six killed, ten wounded in new #Houthi attack on #Egyptian cargo ship in #Bab_al_Mandab

Six people were killed and 10 wounded after #Yemen’s #Iran-aligned Houthi forces attacked the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah with ballistic missiles while it was transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Yemen’s government said.

Three missiles struck the Tanzanian-flagged vessel on Tuesday, 11 August, killing four crew members, three Pakistanis and one Indonesian, and triggering a major fire.

A second missile struck during rescue operations, killing two rescuers, according to reports.

The vessel was carrying food supplies, Yemen’s Transport Ministry said. The Houthis claimed responsibility, alleging the ship was carrying “Saudi military equipment.”

The attack marks the first reported deaths from a Houthi strike on commercial shipping since the US-Israel war with Iran began in late February, according to Al Jazeera⁠.

The strike is the latest in renewed Houthi attacks and a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia, raising further concerns over shipping through the Bab al-Mandab, a key chokepoint linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Yemen’s government condemned the attack and called for stronger international action against the Houthis.

[Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus @DrTedros]

#Ethiopia needs peace, not more war.

For three years, armed conflict in Amhara has cost countless lives. Oromia continues to bleed. Tigray teeters back into open fighting, Afar has been drawn in, and Benishangul-Gumuz remains gripped by violence too.

Enough. I urge the federal government and all regional leaders to choose dialogue over guns, and to pursue real political solutions. War only brings death, destruction, displacement, and deprivation. Ethiopians deserve better.

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

3/3

That convergence is the real danger.

Sudan is at war. Yemen remains unstable. Bab el-Mandeb has faced major shipping disruption. Djibouti hosts foreign military bases. Ethiopia seeks greater maritime access. Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions remain unresolved. #Tigray remains fragile after catastrophic war.

Another large-scale conflict would add pressure to a corridor where trade, energy, aviation, military power and digital connectivity already converge.

That is why full implementation of the #PretoriaAgreement, peace in Tigray, Ethiopia–Eritrea de-escalation, and where necessary serious renegotiation and inclusive regional dialogue are essential.

The goal must be more than another pause in war: a durable regional framework for stability, accountability, recovery and lasting peace.

#HornOfAfrica #Tigray #Ethiopia #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

1/3

The geopolitical blind spot is treating #Tigray, Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions, Sudan’s war, and Yemen as separate crises; they instead form an interconnected security system around the #RedSea and Bab el-Mandeb corridor.

Tigray lies between Eritrea to the north and Sudan to the west, while farther southeast Djibouti and Bab el-Mandeb face Yemen.

Any renewed Ethiopia–Eritrea or Tigray escalation would not remain isolated—it would intersect with an already militarized, fragmented, and strategically saturated region.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea

[Nahum_Assefa @nahom_werede]

2/3

What makes the #RedSea exceptional is not one chokepoint, but the concentration of critical systems in one narrow geography.

Above: commercial aviation and military airspace.
On: shipping, energy flows, ports and naval power.
Below: submarine fibre-optic cables carrying communications, financial data and cloud traffic between Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez are therefore more than maritime chokepoints—they are critical nodes in the physical architecture of the global economy.

And around that infrastructure, multiple conflicts and geopolitical pressures are converging.

#HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia #Tigray #PretoriaAgreement #RedSea