Starship is preparing for catch
Flight 15 is targeting to launch as early as Friday, November 13, pending regulatory approval โ https://t.co/K5XRci6bnw
@shaunmmaguire Great analysis. Seems plausible with the kind of execution seen from SpaceX to date.
Btw take a look at 2028 SI compute - it doesnโt sum correctly on the page.
Also, what split of capacity are you assuming for compute between internal and external usage?
it's a bit hard to know what to build next or even why to build at all right now. but we musn't stop.
what to build?
the answer i think involves: big ambition, science, data, robots, value networks & storytelling
and why?
as ever, to build the world you want to see
read on:
@wintonARK A discount is obviously a non-starter lol...
A ~50:50 MOE with 3:1 SPCX/TSLA exchange ratio seems like the way to go. That roughly aligns with a 30% premium on current TSLA price.
@PaulSong2 Both are have super bullish outlooks imo- SpaceX with starship and AI compute, and Tesla with Robotaxi and Optimus. Maybe SpaceX is going to more scale more rapidly in the immediate term with AI compute, given how hot that space is.
@BruceHardy57@OracleNYSE Youโll still own SPCX, and all the upside that entails. I donโt see the issue. Huge premiums are never offered in merger of equal type deals.
The dollar value of the offer isnโt that relevant, since itโs going to be all stock. The exchange ratio is whatโs important. I believe it should be close to a merger of equals. TSLA shareholders will retain upside in the combined company. Since there is a very compelling equity story for the acquiring entity, TSLA shareholders will likely support the merger assuming a reasonable exchange ratio and relative valuation.
@unusual_whales Can't be true. 0.7 * ~$142 (current SPCX price) =$99.40... so this would value TSLA at a fraction of its current market value. Zero chance.
@garyblack00 Putting aside debates around the future value of Robotaxi, Optimus and the EV business etc., what about the scenario where SPCX acquires TSLA?
@GavinSBaker Presumably AI spend will rise rapidly in the medium to long term though. The money will be spent on open weight model tokens vs frontier lab model tokens, so infrastructure providers will benefit- ie โhyperscalersโ such as SpaceX, Google, Microsoft, Meta, etc