Naresh

Building with AI agents & cloud infra. Notes on AI engineering, markets, and India macro.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

Nothing personal — but the era of subscriptions quietly billing people who forgot is coming to an end. My AI assistant scanned my bank account and found every recurring charge, even ones with no email receipt. Consumers finally have a watchdog. #Muse #Meta #AI #Subscriptions #FinTwit

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@realroseceline Amazon vs Google? Which one has the best R/R?

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

The market beneath the market

One of the biggest misconceptions in investing is how the stock market actually works. Most people become obsessed with volatility because that’s the only thing they can see. They celebrate when a stock jumps 8% and panic when it falls 8%, as if billions of dollars suddenly appeared or disappeared overnight. In reality, that’s usually not what’s happening.

The US stock market is worth approx $75 trillion, making it one of the largest pools of capital ever assembled. While new money enters the market every day through retirement accounts, pensions, and other investors, most of the day to day movement isn’t driven by fresh money. It’s driven by existing capital constantly being reallocated from one opportunity to another.

A few years ago, investors were selling consumer staples to buy software. Then they sold software to buy AI. Someday they’ll sell AI to buy whatever the next great opportunity becomes. The money didn’t disappear, it simply changed its proverbial addresses.

That’s why I’ve always believed the stock market isn’t just a collection of businesses. It’s also the largest capital allocation machine ever created. Every second of every trading day, trillions of dollars are competing to find what investors believe offers the highest future return.

Most investors think businesses compete only with other businesses, but that’s only half the story. Every business is also competing for capital. A dollar invested in $AMZN is a dollar that can’t be invested in $META, $TSLA, Treasury bills, gold, real estate, or thousands of other opportunities. Every investment has an invisible competitor.

Capital has no emotions and no loyalty. It doesn’t care what worked yesterday or which company investors fell in love with last year. It simply flows toward wherever people believe the best future returns will be found, and the moment those expectations change, the direction of capital changes with them.

This is why your stock can decline even when the business is performing exceptionally well. Maybe a large fund is reducing exposure to technology. Maybe an index is rebalancing. Maybe investors simply found another opportunity they believe offers a better risk adjusted return. The business may not have changed at all. The destination of capital did.

Most investors spend their time watching prices, but prices are simply the footprints capital leaves behind. They tell you where money has already gone, but they rarely explain why it moved there in the first place. If you only watch prices, you’re observing the result instead of understanding the cause.

Once you begin thinking about capital instead of just prices, the market starts to make a lot more sense. You stop asking, “Why did this stock go down today?” and start asking, “Where did the capital go, and why?” Very often, the answer has little to do with the business itself and everything to do with investors repositioning capital.

None of this changes what ultimately matters. In the short run, capital determines where prices go. In the long run, business performance determines where capital goes. That’s why my job isn’t to predict where money will flow next week. It’s to own exceptional businesses that will continue attracting capital over the next decade because they keep creating more value than their competitors.

🌹

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@multiplanet1 Wonderfully explained. Dear Musk you are my hero.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@Nithin0dha Opening account is fairly easy. Currency depreciation is bigger issue.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@Akshat_World INR depreciation is a major setback.
They made taking money out of India too hard.

If people make good money they would exit the labor market and start entrepreneurial journey.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@awscloud Going forward certs will test "build x". Give access to cloud sandbox accounts and llms . Have them build using AI.

LLM can evaluate the progress and certify.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@VishakhRanotra I guess RBI doesn't have enough power to defend the rupee.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@_Pokiri2497 Preserve wealth: To preserve wealth , Either one is good.
slight edge for land , if you can pick right location.

To build wealth: stocks is better.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

https://t.co/v2RmFKjOOx

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@HatedMoats $AVGO

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@HatedMoats 😀 . Ask Claude to build ChatGPT.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@JeffBezos Congratulations

[Claude @claudeai]

Introducing Claude Design by Anthropic Labs: make prototypes, slides, and one-pagers by talking to Claude.

Powered by Claude Opus 4.7, our most capable vision model. Available in research preview on the Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise plans, rolling out throughout the day.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Yes

[Amazon Quick @amazonquick]

Introducing Amazon Quick.

The AI layer that works wherever you work, connecting apps, understanding context, and turning answers into actions.

Amazon Quick brings it all together.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@englandcricket You guys have played incredibly well. The best match so far in the tournament

[Prakash Dadlani @prakdadlani]

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[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@GuruShareMarket Are you sure???

After missing 3 consecutive months they declare NPA
After NPA they start 60-day repayment window.
Only after repayment window they take posession.

[Naresh @nareshjohnny]

@asmah2107 Fantastic post. Don't make agents monsters you cannot control and monitor.