Who are the “big guys” threatened by $IREN :
•Microsoft — building their own data centers
•Google — same
•Amazon AWS — same
•Elon — already vertically integrated
They all want to own the energy + compute stack themselves
IREN succeeding means independent infrastructure that doesn’t belong to a hyperscaler
$IREN IREN Announces First Australian Data Center Campus With 800MW Capacity
• IREN signed a transmission connection agreement to support a planned 800MW data center campus in South Australia.
• The project is expected to begin energization from 2028 and marks IREN's first announced Australian data center campus.
• The site will feature submarine fiber connectivity into key Asia-Pacific markets.
NBIS is trading at 3 times IREN’s valuation. I think fair value of $IREN now is $200. If euphoria hits, anything is possible. I think IREN has much better potential than any of its competitors. They need to slow on dilution and make deals at a steady pace.
$IREN Shorts selling in the premarket is digging a grave for themselves. This train can't be stopped. IREN will catapult from here. I am buying more on every chance.
@dsabs11 Most of that capital employed is GPU’s, so 10-yr life is being very generous to $IREN. And existing data centers require $0.8 to $1.0M in annual maintenance capex per MW. #MathIsHard
Cantor’s report hiking its price target for $IREN today actually underscores the problem with its business model. They have average capital employed in FY 2027 of over $10B, with Adjusted EBITDA reaching $2B. Using 10-yr life(!)for its GPU’s/DC’s gets you to a 10% ROIC. 16% WACC.
$IREN
And another one...
Arete Research's Andrew Beale has reiterated his 'Buy' Recommendation and increased his 'Target Price' from $107 --> $126
👀
$IREN is the dark horse that I bet on. It will be the pioneer in the sector. This is only the beginning. This is an opportunity of a lifetime. It’s only a matter of time.
$IREN customer @FireworksAI_HQ surpasses $800m ARR, just months before the new B300s get deployed across Childress and Mackenzie.
Seeing your early AI Cloud customers win, that's what creates the foundation of the next few years of monetizing the power portfolio.
Well done 👏
My take on @danroberts0101 new post
$IREN Co-CEO just dropped a beautifully written thread on the company's compounding competitive advantages.
Seriously, a must read for every $IREN investor or folks who are on the fence.
My highlights:
- Dan confirmed that the 60 MW cloud contract with $NVDA is in fact measured in 'gross' MW, not IT. That was already obvious to me based on the earnings call material, however, it's great to get definitive confirmation.
The implications of this is ENORMOUS. The $NVDA contract has incredible economics, something I've analyzed extensively in my upcoming $IREN deep dive (released in a couple of days on Substack).
- Dan firing shots at the likes of $NBIS & $CRWV:
"And the asset-light neocloud trying to compete by renting capacity is discovering that sites were locked up years ago, and the operators utilizing them aren’t subletting. By the time new entrants solve for land, power and permitting, IREN will have gigawatts online, execution track record, and customer relationships that took years to build. That gap doesn’t close. It compounds."
This is by far my favorite quote coming out of Dan. Eventually, everyone will realize that the real advantage $IREN has over the rest of the neo-cloud sector, is the fact that they are the only provider that's 100% vertically integrated.
They don't have to deal with any land-lords. They don't have to pay billions to $BE to secure fuel cells in a desperate attempt to salvage a project that is tied to a large customer contract. $IREN is in control of its own destiny, and eventually that will show up in the bottom line (profits).
The “asset-light” model never works in an infrastructure-heavy industry. It works for hardware, when you are the high-margin designer and outsource the manufacturing process to a specialized entity. But it doesn’t work when the infrastructure itself is the product.
In cloud, the value is not just in having access to GPUs. The value is in controlling the full stack, which mostly consists of physical infrastructure.
If you outsource all of that to colocation partners, you are not building an AI factory. You are renting someone else’s factory, layering a spread on top, and hoping the economics still work after the landlord, the power provider, the OEM, and the lender have all taken their share.
That model can look attractive in the early innings because it allows rapid capacity announcements without heavy upfront CapEx. But structurally, it leaves the operator with the worst part of the value chain.
I'm really looking forward to comparing the net income lines between $IREN, $CRWV, and $NBIS a few years from now. I wouldn't be surprised if two out of the three remain unprofitable by then.
- I really enjoyed Dan's section about becoming a global cloud provider.
He did a great job in explaining the importance of being locally present in the markets you want to source customers from. Not just due to local proximity for inference, but also due to compliance & sovereignty.
These were my highlights, I'll let you discover the other gems yourself. This is easily Dan's best post and I think it does a lot in terms of IR, especially as it's coming from him; the co-founder and co-CEO of $IREN.
As mentioned earlier, very soon I'll be releasing a new deep dive on $IREN. It goes deep into the implications of the $NVDA partnership and Mirantis acquisition, including a bunch of different topics worth exploring. So far, the report is 30 pages long (including graphs / images) and I'm in the process of finalizing it.
Honestly, one of my best deep dives to date. I know I'm saying that for each release, but the depth and quality of our work is undoubtedly increasing. Can't wait to publish it.
Cheers guys! ✌️
$IREN
Needham hosted IREN last week....
These are some takeaways:
"For 2027 capacity, negotiations are underway with hyperscalers and frontier labs."
"Australia APC grid connection approvals nearing completion."
👀