NASDAQ ninja

Treat the worst of times like a test. If you'll learn how to navigate times like this - imagine what you'll achieve on the bullmarket?

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

@nasdaq_ninja_

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

I could see all three of these narratives come to reality in the years ahead. /END

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

@nasdaq_ninja_

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

The goal of CFA Institute is to get this type of integration to be standard. ESG is NOT the Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) of the 80s

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

Next, we chart gold and monetary inflation. /7

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

The stock market is in limbo, like a dull movie plot. Equities have gone nowhere since June 2022.

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

The Fed could easily justify this by concluding that tighter financial conditions have the same effect as rate hikes. /3

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

Learn from your losses and Stay Vigilant

#markets #investing #fundamentalanalysis #technicalanalysis #fintwit

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

My guess is that the Fed will pause, to see to what degree financial conditions tighten (if any). /END

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

@nasdaq_ninja_

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

Remember, Stay Vigilant, Stay Humble and It's Time to Talk

#markets #investing #itstimetotalk

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

Below, the S&P 500 priced in gold (i.e. deflated by the price of gold). Lower lows. /3

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

The market is bouncing around inside a P/E range of 15.5x to 18.5x. Don't be surprised if it keeps doing that.

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

Stay Vigilant

#markets #economy2023 #recessionindicator #riskyassets #fintwit #FinTwitt

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

A hat tip to Garfield Reynolds from Bloomberg for the news story today that highlights this indicator and the quote from JayPo.

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

@nasdaq_ninja_
In most cases, the market holds up for a bit, but with the exception of the 1998 cycle (which followed a barely visible inversion), equities have had drawdowns of -11% to -51% in the months that follow. Be careful what you wish for when it comes to Fed pivots. /END

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

@nasdaq_ninja_
But now that the curve has likely reached its most-inverted state, we have a bit more clarity on what might happen next. The chart shows the percent change in the S&P 500 following peak inversions. /3

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

@nasdaq_ninja_
While yield curve inversions have a perfect track record in predicting a recession, the signals are frustratingly disparate in terms of the lead time and magnitude of outcome. /2

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

We seem to have reached “peak inversion” in the yield curve. What does that tell us? 🧵

[NASDAQ ninja @nasdaq_ninja_]

Then take a closer look at how each asset class performs once the recession starts and throughout. I think you might be surprised a bit.