Urea price up
Gross margins down
Area lost
Reports of regional cuts are mounting
đŚđş wheat area â14%, đŚđˇ â17%
Add yield losses as growers cut application rates, and youâre staring at a doubleâdigit hit to world wheat output
Before weather even matters
#oatt
Urea prices
Urea markets are splitting - like crude oil didâ¨â¨As countries rush to meet demand, supply is repricing fastâ¨
Since the conflict beganâ¨Baltic Sea +69%â¨Egypt +68%â¨Middle East âonlyâ +46%â¨
LNG curtailments in the Gulf are deepening
higher prices, and for longer
â¨#oatt
2026, day 89
Good morning from Asia.
âIsrael faces pressure to end Iran strikes as US pushes ceasefire-for-talks optionâ (Ynet) - âOfficials say Washington is pressing for the war to wind down within days to allow possible US-Iran negotiations, even as Israel doubts a deal is likely and sees potential American ground action as a preferable next stepâ;
âDonald Trump says US could âtake the oil in Iranââ (FT) - âUS president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continueâ;
âTrump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iranâs Uraniumâ (WSJ) - âThe president hasnât made a decision, U.S. officials said, as he considers the risk to U.S. troopsâ;
âIranâs heavy water production plant no longer operational, IAEA saysâ (Al Arabiya);
âPakistan prepares to host peace talks as Iran accuses US of ground assault plansâ (Reuters);
âIran Threatens Payback if U.S. Launches Ground Invasionâ (WSJ);
âIranâs missile infrastructure severely strained after weeks of strikesâ (WaPo);
âKuwait Says Power Plant Hit by Iranian Strike, Killing One Workerâ (WSJ);
âIranian missile attack sparks blaze in chemical plant, fears of hazardous leakâ (ToI);
âRussia took satellite images of US base in Saudi Arabia before Iran strike: Zelenskyâ (The Hill);
âHow Iran destroyed US baseâs $500m battlefield nerve centreâ (Telegraph);
âWhy Russia Is Stepping Up Its Support for an Embattled Iranâ (WSJ! - âMoscow is trying to salvage what is left of a shrinking web of global partnershipsâ;
âWhat the Houthisâ entry into the Iran war means for the conflict and the wider regionâ (Guardian);
âFrance detains two more suspects over foiled Paris Bank of America attackâ (Reuters);
âNetanyahu Lets Catholic Leader into Jerusalem Church Following Criticismâ (WSJ);
âIranâs ambassador wonât leave Lebanon despite expulsion, diplomatic source saysâ (AFP);
âIsrael's Netanyahu orders expansion of southern Lebanon operations to halt Hezbollah rocketsâ (Reuters);
â$500 and a trip abroad: How recruits end up in Russian sabotage training campsâ (Politico);
âU.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockadeâ (NYT);
âWhy revived China-Philippine talks wonât lead to energy cooperation in the South China Seaâ (SCMP);
In geoeconomics, âIran activates its âresistance economyâ to survive the warâ (FT);
There are claims the UAE has seized $530 billion from Iran and removed all Iranian residents from Dubai;
âNational cabinet to plan for fuel rationing, but hopes to avoid itâ (AFR);
âKeir Starmer to meet fuel bosses as fears grow over Iran war shortagesâ (The Times);
âHormuz shock sparks defense concerns and a push for green jet fuelâ (Politico);
âKarachi leverages Iran war, wins a year's worth of transshipment in 24 daysâ (Nikkei Asia);
âEUâs Ĺ efÄoviÄ confirms push for Western steel club with US and U.K.â (Politico);
âHuawei poaches top German scientist, as scholars blame academic systemâ (Nikkei Asia) - âLawmakers call for tighter rules over fears of Chinese tech know-how theft, sabotageâ;
In politics, âTony Blair says left's 'unholy alliance with Islamists' is endangering U.K.â (LBC);
âStarmer told to âget a gripâ of McSweeney phone scandalâ (Telegraph);
âEU wants to open deportation hubs in Africa this yearâ (The Times);
âInside the shift in Labor heartland to One Nationâ (Australian);
âPope seems to rebuke Trump in remarks about leaders with âhands full of bloodââ (Guardian);
In markets, âOil Gains as Iran War Escalates With Houthi Attacks on Israelâ (BBG);
âAluminum Surges 6% After Iran Strikes Plants in UAE, Bahrainâ (BBG);
âEurozone borrowing costs soar on fears of fiscal hit from Iran shockâ (FT);
âThree Reasons the Stock Market Can Endure the Warâ (WSJ);
âWhy Kenneth Rogoff thinks Chinaâs yuan will be a reserve currency âin the next 5 yearsââ (SCMP);
âBitcoin resilience amid Iran war raises optimism about crypto adoption in ASEANâ (Nikkei Asia)
Iranâs nitrogen plants are back online â and the urea & ammonia export ban has been cancelled.
Fresh supply could be heading back to global fertiliser markets.
Nitrogen price relief brewing? Hard to tell
What is the best N dose this year to maximise ROI? Not my chart
#oatt
2026, day 86
Good morning from Asia.
âDonald Trump extends Iran talks deadline after sell-off on Wall Streetâ (FT) - âUS stocks post worst day since Middle East crisis began as fresh inflation fears send Treasury yields higherâ;
âUS proposal to end war is âone-sided and unfair,â Iranian official saysâ (Al Arabiya);
âUS said mulling âfinal blowâ options if Iran talks fail, including sending troops to seize key assetsâ (ToI);
âTrump Weighs Sending Another 10,000 Ground Troops to the Middle Eastâ (WSJ);
âUS deploys uncrewed drone boats in conflict with Iranâ (Reuters);
âIsrael Races to Cripple Iranâs Arms Production Before War Endsâ (WSJ) - âTargeting priorities have shifted to inflicting lasting damage to industrial sites, as hopes of regime change fadeâ;
âIsrael kills Alireza Tangsiri, IRGC Navy chief 'behind blocking of Strait of Hormuz'â (JPost);
âIranâs hardline new leaders take controlâ (FT) - âUS-Israeli assassinations have left a regime that looks more hawkish at home and abroadâ;
âIran hardliners ramp up calls for a nuclear bomb, sources sayâ (Reuters);
âIran recruits children as young as 12 for checkpoints in Tehranâ (Al Arabiya);
âAmerican troops forced to withdraw from Middle East basesâ (Telegraph) - âIranâs missile and drone strikes have left some facilities âalmost uninhabitableââ;
âUS denies targeting Iraqi forces, says it sought locations repeatedlyâ (Al Arabiya);
âChief of Staff Zamir warns IDF will collapse due to lack of manpower, raises 'ten red flags'â (JPost);
âYemen's Houthis may cut off trade route between Asia and Europe, Iran claimsâ (9News);
âFrance says it approached 35 countries over future Hormuz missionâ (Reuters);
âSenior Hamas official assails Board of Peace envoy for conditioning reconstruction on disarmamentâ (ToI);
âTrump scorches NATO for failing Iran loyalty test, debates bailing on allianceâ (NYPost);
âTrump describes UK aircraft carriers as âtoysâ in latest anti-Nato jibeâ (Guardian);
â'NATO safer under Trump,' says Secretary General Mark Rutteâ (Euronews);
In geoeconomics, âSaudi finance minister warns of impact on global economy amid ongoing Iran warâ (Al Arabiya);
âCyclone forces WA LNG shutdowns, worsening global gas crunchâ (AFR);
â24 days to disaster: Trumpâs new deadline wonât change oil shock mathsâ (AFR) - âItâs hard to avoid thinking Trumpâs fresh cutoff for a deal with Iran wasnât partly prompted by a sell-off on Wall Street. Whatever the case, heâs running out of timeâ;
âTrump claims Iran âbegging to make a dealâ but teases new aid for farmers amid war falloutâ (SCMP);
âPutin says Iran war consequences could be as serious as those of COVID-19 pandemicâ (Al Arabiya);
âVietnam, Philippines seek oil aid from Japan amid Mideast warâ (Nikkei Asia);
âCarneyâs mega anti-Trump alliance starts quest to save world tradeâ (Politico) - âNearly 40 nations are hatching a plan to save the WTO or, if it canât be salvaged, to build a new orderâ;
âNot so fast: Brussels snubs Merz's suggestion for EU-China trade dealâ (Euronews);
âChina threatens Mexico with trade reprisals over 50% import dutiesâ (SCMP);
âPatriots' paradox: Trump's far-right European allies refuse to support his EU trade dealâ (Euractiv);
âGerman Armed Forces Association calls to prepare for war economyâ (Euractiv);
âEU countries push to set up deportation hubs by year-endâ (Politico);
âTrump to sidestep Congress, pay TSA workersâ (Axios);
âMcSweeney phone theft claims donât add up, says Badenochâ (Telegraph) - âTory leader claims there is âsomething fishy going onââ;
In markets, âAnthropic wins court order blocking Pentagonâs security threat designationâ (FT);
âUS bond market shows signs of strain as Iran war sparks Treasury tumultâ (FT);
âFederal Reserve could cut balance sheet by $2tn without market turmoil, says Miranâ (FT);
âTrumpâs Signature to Appear on U.S. Paper Currencyâ (WSJ) - âSet to be the first sitting president to have his name on American money, Treasury Department saysâ
Iranâs war has flipped the switch: energy security first, economics second.
But biofuels arenât plugâandâplay.
Before breakevens, policy decides what actually works.
Policy pillar #1: biofuel mandates.
Mandates create demand â without them, most biofuels donât scale. đ§ľ
2026, day 85
Good morning from Asia.
âMost of Iranâs Missile Plants Are Damaged or Destroyed, U.S. Saysâ (WSJ) - âWhite House threatens more attacks if Tehran doesn't make a deal to end the conflictâ;
âRussia sending drones to Iran, western intelligence saysâ (FT);
âRussia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy saysâ (Reuters);
âUS Troop Movements Fan Fears of a Risky Ground Attack on Iranâ (BBG);
âHow a US assault on Kharg Island could unfoldâ (FT) - âSeizing Iranâs oil export hub by sea or air would choke regime but risks dragging American troops into open-ended conflictâ;
âWhite House: US ahead of expected 4-6 week timeline for Iran war; âvery closeâ to meeting objectivesâ (ToI);
âIran could take action in Bab al-Mandab Strait if provoked, Tasnim news agency saysâ (Reuters);
âIran officials reply coldly to truce offer, as US warns of harsher strikes if rejectedâ (ToI);
â"They'll get mowed down": Trump rebuffed Netanyahu idea to call for Iran uprisingâ (Axios);
âThe Narrow Path to a U.S.âIran Dealâ (WSJ) - âBoth sides will have to scale back demands, but their history points to a way to get it doneâ;
âIran says it is reviewing US proposal to end warâ (Reuters);
âGulf states slam Iran attacks on their territories as flagrant violation of sovereigntyâ (Al Arabiya);
âUganda military chief: Iran war must end, but weâll join it if Israelâs at risk of defeatâ (ToI);
âA CEO Sees Four War Outcomes: âThe Good, the Bad, the Ugly and the Very Uglyââ (WSJ);
âNetanyahu says Israel is expanding âbuffer zoneâ in Lebanonâ (AFP);
âLockheed Martin's Martell says warfare requires human-machine teamworkâ (Axios);
âPentagon announces major surge in missile productionâ (Defense News);
âPentagon inks deal with BAE, Lockheed to quadruple THAAD seeker productionâ (Defense News);
âTrumpâs âabsurdly incoherentâ Iran pleas leave allies befuddledâ (Politico);
âXi-Trump summit: White House locks in new dates in May, Beijing silentâ (SCMP);
âAnalysis: Xi Jinping finds himself in a Japan-US dilemmaâ (Nikkei Asia) - âThe Chinese leader wants to attack Sanae Takaichi but not Donald Trumpâ;
âAt least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity halted, Reuters calculations showâ (Reuters) - âUkraine intensified drone attacks on Russiaâs oil and fuel export infrastructure this month, hitting all three of its major western oil export portsâ;
âUS links security guarantees to Ukraine giving up Donbas, Zelenskiy saysâ (Reuters);
âBrazil unveils first supersonic fighter jet assembled in countryâ (Reuters);
âUS ramps up fuel exports to Cuba's private sectorâ (Reuters);
âBrazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in technical tie in run-off simulation, poll showsâ (Reuters);
âRight-wing candidates Fujimori, Lopez Aliaga top crowded Peru field ahead of presidential vote, poll showsâ (Reuters);
In geoeconomics, âJapan-Europe container shipping hangs on by a threadâ (Nikkei Asia) - âCMA CGM steps in after ONE scraps direct route in sign of Japanese ports' declineâ;
âAsia Braces for Worst-Case Energy Scenarios as Iran War Drags Onâ (BBG);
âDonald Trump taps Silicon Valley billionaires for policy adviceâ (FT) - âAppointments to advisory body deepen ties between tech industry and White Houseâ;
âMeta and YouTube Lose Landmark Social-Media Addiction Trialâ (WSJ);
âEU trustbuster deepens ties in California, brushes off Trump demandsâ (Politico);
âGermanyâs Merz doubts EU budget will be finalised this yearâ (Euractiv);
In markets, âMarkets were not made for Trumpâs never-ending ping-pongâ (FT) - âThe chaos of the Iran war will have long-term consequences for investors and the dollarâ;
âIran war could boost Chinaâs âpetroyuanâ and weaken US dollar dominance, analysts sayâ (SCMP);
âTrump Team Examines What Oil as High as $200 a Barrel Would Meanâ (BBG)
Since the early 2000s, Australia has lost 6 refineries
Today, we refine just 12.8% of diesel, 35.3% of petrol and 14.9% of jet fuel we use
Geography matters
consumers around Brisbane & Geelong might face fewer supply crunches - they are home to the last two refineries
2026, day 69
Good morning from Asia.
âDonald Trump said the war with Iran would end âvery soonââ (FT) âbut indicated to reporters it would not be within the next weekâ;
âTrump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlashâ (WSJ) - âThe president told reporters on Monday that he thought the war in Iran would be over âvery soonââ;
âTrump Warns Iran to Keep Strait of Hormuz Openâ (WSJ);
âG7 âstands readyâ to release emergency oil reservesâ (FT) - âFinance ministers pledge ânecessary measuresâ to tackle surging crude prices with deal expected as soon as Tuesdayâ;
âJapan gives order to prepare for release of oil reservesâ (Nikkei Asia);
âU.S. and Iran Predicted a Very Different War Than the One Now Being Wagedâ (WSJ) - âEconomic disruption stemming from the conflict is hurting countries worldwideâwhile providing a windfall to Russiaâ;
âIran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israelâ (Reuters);
âMore attacks on Shaybah oil field despite Saudi warnings to Iranâ (Al Arabiya);
âTrump's Gaza plan on hold as Iran war pauses disarmament talks, sources sayâ (Reuters);
âTroops Mass as Landlocked Ethiopia Chases Access to the Seaâ (WSJ) - âThe threat of civil war is returning, too, after 600,000 died last timeâ;
âGulf attention is turning inward: why the Iran war could destabilise the Horn of Africaâ (The Conversation);
âHezbollah preparing for long war, US pours cold water on Lebanon-Israel talks proposalâ (JPost);
âSyrian president declares support for Lebanonâs effort to disarm Hezbollahâ (Al Arabiya);
âAoun accuses Hezbollah of working toward âcollapseâ of Lebanese state for Iranâs sakeâ (Al Arabiya);
âTop EU officials say no tears shed over fall of Iranian regime, but warn of âchaosâ aheadâ (Politico);
âVon der Leyen shifts EU's global focus to securityâ (Euractiv) - âSecurity should become the 'organising principle' of Europe's foreign policy, says Commission presidentâ;
âFrance preparing to escort ships in Strait of Hormuz when war calms: Macronâ (Al Jazeera);
In geoeconomics, âWhy Iranian Regime Change Would Transform Global Energy Marketsâ (WSJ) - âOne of the largest oil industries in the world has been strangled for years by international sanctionsâ;
âTrump reviews options to curb energy prices as Iran strikes roil marketsâ (Reuters) - âoptions include restricting U.S. exports, intervening in oil futures markets, waiving some federal taxes and lifting requirements under a U.S. law called the Jones Act that domestic fuel move only on U.S.-flagged ships, among othersâ;
âChinaâs financial superpower ambitions get legal backing at âtwo sessionsââ (SCMP);
âEconomic Security 101: why Chinaâs officials now have to study rare earths and supply chainsâ (SCMP);
âJapan's Proterial eyes making magnets without heavy rare earths in North Americaâ (Nikkei Asia) - âFormer Hitachi unit targets businesses aiming to lower reliance on China: presidentâ;
âUS reaches agreement to end prosecution of Turkeyâs Halkbankâ (FT);
In markets, ââUnfathomableâ: Oil traders left reeling after historic 24 hoursâ (AFR);
âIran War Is Giving Markets a Covid-Like Shockâ (BBG);
âTrump sons back launch of new military drone companyâ (FT);
âAnthropic Sues U.S. Defense Department, Pete Hegseth for Targeting the Companyâ (WSJ);
âCanada's banking regulator warns major lenders about lending practices as condo prices crashâ (Reuters);
âIndonesian fund Danantara chases Prabowo's dreams, but spurs major doubtsâ (Nikkei Asia)
Oil moving 25%+ in a single day. OIS curve pricing twice as many hikes as it was on Friday. On current trajectory we could be headed toward demand destruction territory where the logic begins to invert and the RBA cuts to prioritise financial stability.
Why havenât grain prices surged like diesel and crude?
Itâs a common question across ag markets right now.
The answer starts with geography. đ§ľ
Day zero refers to last business day prior to outbreak of the conflict
CBOT wheat prices long term cycles
History does not repeat itself, but it surely can rhyme
For a robust 2026 price rally it is still missing a weather problem in a key export region
đ¤ Presenter Announcement
@FaceyGroup is excited to welcome Paul Joules, Commodity Analyst with RaboResearch @RabobankAU, as a presenter at our 2026 Trials Review & Pre-Seeding Catch Up đž
Based in Sydney, Paul delivers data-driven insights across grains, oilseeds, fertilisers, cotton and agricultural land values. With global experience spanning London and Australia â and farming roots on a mixed dairy, beef and arable farm in Wales â Paul brings a powerful blend of practical on-farm understanding and international market expertise.
đ Thursday, 5 March 2026
â° 4:00pm
đ Register now: https://t.co/uC2FlOsSx7
Proudly sponsored by @TheGRDC
Sundowner to follow thanks to @SummitFertz
#FaceyGroup #GRDC #TrialsReview #PreSeeding #AgMarkets #Grains #RaboResearch #Rabobank #AustralianAgriculture #GrowerUpdate #Sundowner
Current rainfall outlook for April through to August is below average. Thanks to a potential El Nino and positive IOD in July. Hopefully the outlook is more optimistic when I present at the Kalannie @GRDCWest updates on 10 March. Also at Wagin Woolorama 6-7 March.
đ Local trial data = real paddock decisions
Donât miss one of our standout events on the @FaceyGroup calendar.
Our 2025 Trials Review & Pre-Seeding Catch Up will share results from our 2025 trials, with local, relevant information and grower-focused insights to help guide our membersâ 2026 season.
What to expect:
âď¸ In-depth trial results
âď¸ Presentations from key industry specialists
âď¸ Q&A + discussion time
đ Thursday 5 March 2026 | đ 4pmâ8pm
FREE for members | $40 non-members
Register now: https://t.co/uC2FlOsSx7
#growergroups #localagresearch #FaceyGroup #TrialsReview #LocalTrials #PreSeeding #GrowerFocused #OnFarmDecisions #WAgrains #GRDC @thegrdc
Aussie OIS now pricing better than 70% chance of Feb hike after Q4 trimmed CPI came in at 0.9% QoQ/3.4% YoY.
Monthly COI series shows modest 0.2% MoM trimmed-mean and return to disinflation for owner occupied housing and rents, but market services ex volatiles looks very strong.