Naveen Changoiwala

Building AI for personal finance at @NoveltyWealth
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CA (AIR 9) | IIM Ahmedabad

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

October RBI policy is the next decisive moment.

If crude stays here and the Fed holds its hawkish stance, the RBI's room to avoid a rate hike shrinks further.

The BFSI and auto selling shows FPIs are already positioning for exactly that. (8/8)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

Two months of FPI buying. That's how long the optimism lasted.

July: ₹20,200 cr net buying.
August: ₹29,631 cr.

Through September 19: ₹23,676 cr sold.

Cumulative FPI equity selling in 2026: ₹2.37 lakh crore. Already past the ₹1.66L cr sold in all of 2025. (1/8)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

The July-August reversal was not a trend change. It was a pause driven by FCNR optimism and a brief crude dip.

September confirmed the structural concerns are unchanged: crude above $100, weakening rupee, elevated inflation, and a Fed that is now hiking. (7/8)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

UPI processed ₹29.8 lakh crore in August. Funding it is legitimate.

But claiming 96% unaffected when 65% of the value is affected, 15 months after calling the same idea "completely false," might not be transparent policy-making. (8/8)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

Fifteen months ago, the Finance Ministry called speculation about UPI charges "completely false and baseless."

Now: 0.4% MDR on merchant UPI transactions above ₹2,000. Effective October 15. (1/8)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

For investors: 0.02% on MF and securities transactions is small. But on a ₹5 lakh MF purchase, that's ₹100 that didn't exist yesterday.

And once MDR exists, thresholds drop and rates rise. ATM charges, SMS fees, debit card costs. India has seen this pattern. (7/8)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

The WPI-CPI gap told the story in June. The August data confirms it.

The October MPC meeting now carries serious weight. The data the committee said it was waiting for is arriving. And it's not saying what the doves had hoped. (7/7)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

Weeks ago I wrote about the gap between WPI & CPI. Factory gate inflation running hot. Consumer prices still calm.

The August numbers dropped recently.

CPI: 4.82%. 8-month high. Tenth straight month of rising inflation.
WPI: 9.92%. Fourth month above 9%.

The wave is here (1/7)

[Naveen Changoiwala @naveen_chango]

For your household and portfolio:

Your grocery bill tells you what CPI confirms. Prices are rising, not just for food anymore. Eating out, personal care, services.

FDs at 6-7% before tax, with CPI at 4.82% and climbing, leave very little real return. (6/7)