Excited to announce that I’ll be joining @Gfilche on the HyperChange YouTube channel next week for an in-depth discussion about Upstart!
This represents a significant milestone for the $UPST community. Looking forward to sharing more on why I believe Upstart is shaping up to be one of the most remarkable corporate turnarounds in recent history.
The lack of respect I see for $HIMS on here is truly astounding.
Does Hims have a passionate retail investor base that makes large, sometimes unsubstantiated claims? Yes. Have retail investors piled in likely too far? Yes.
But the core underlying business here is phenomenal. I am really surprised Wall Street doesn't like it.
At its core, Hims & Hers is a telehealth subscription business. They have over 2,200,000 subscribers (+45% YoY) and are increasingly monetizing those customers better (monthly online rev/sub $64 +19% YoY)
These are the makings of a very large moat. Gen Z and younger consumers view Hims as a "one stop shop" for all personal health/care needs. With such a large marketing spend (consistently roughly HALF of revenue) Hims brand recognition is there.
The controversy and short-seller thesis come really, in my understanding, from two factors.
1.) Valuation
This was totally justified when the stock was trading in the $60s and above. I trimmed shares.
But now, HIMS trades at only 28x TTM free cash flow, 50x TTM *material* earnings and ~ 8x sales. All while having a balance sheet that carries no long-term debt and has more current assets than total liabilities. Analysts expect HIMS to grow the topline 57% this year, followed by 18% in 2026. This growth is profitable and accompanied by free cash flow.
2.) GLP-1s
Now we arrive at the future, will GLP-1s fade away and hurt HIMS business? Possibly, but that was never the core thesis anyway. The easy money on the short side regarding this narrative has been made.
In my opinion, shorts are bikeshedding too hard on GLP-1s as a standalone factor Hims needs to succeed. In reality, Hims has already succeeded. They've built a massive subscription service with immense cross-selling functionality. GLP-1s are a nice growth lever, but they aren't the only growth lever out there.
Algos and Quants trade Hims off every weight loss drug news, but there's disconnect between these narratives and the fundamentals of Hims.
Hims offers the following additional products:
Hair Loss Treatments
Erectile Dysfunction Treatments
Mental Health Treatments
Skin Care Treatments
Sleep Support
Sexual Health Products
Not necessarily as big of a market as weight loss drugs (which is why the stock has been re-rated) but a lot to like.
I have been long Hims & Hers since the $7-8 range. As the stock ran over $50, I trimmed my position and lost interest, just keeping my core holding. I believe the sell off here is overdone and am buying more shares - $40 PT.
Officially headed to NYC for Upstart's AI Day! 🗽
Huge thanks to the team for including me. I'm so excited to attend, cover the event for you all, and, of course, represent the retail investor in the big leagues‼️
🚀🍎🏙️ $UPST
Had a great time last night hosting an Investment Summit with @micahfinance & my colleagues.
I gave a talk on “Unlocking Alpha” - covering how to identify market inefficiencies, challenge conventional narratives, and think independently.
This was a great experience and I had a lot of fun exchanging ideas with a sharp group of students 👏
We're So Back!
Excited to announce I will be speaking live with @Upstart CFO Sanjay Datta Thursday, February 13, at 8:00 AM PST / 10:00 AM CST
Have a question you'd like to ask Sanjay? Leave it down below 👇 $UPST
Please register for the LIVE Zoom call here
https://t.co/VdwFjtw71u
Overwhelmed by the support I've received from you all this morning. My inbox is flooded with countless kind messages 🫶
I started investing November 21st, 2021, my 18th birthday. On this day, I wrote down my overarching goal. "My mission is to assist retail investors in spotting opportunities within misunderstood companies, empowering them to think independently. My long-term investment focus employs a unique strategy, one that requires extreme patience and strong mental fortitude."
Today is one of the best days of my life. Not because my favorite stock is up (big!) but because I feel incredibly validated and proud of the work I've done to get here. Countless hours behind the scenes, deep introspection. My fear of failure was high. I went on a live, just like I did yesterday, several times where the stock fell 40% plus.
When the market and it's participants are screaming you're wrong, it's really tough to believe in yourself. You're never as good as they say you are when you're winning, and you're never as bad as they say you are when you're losing.
Investing is hard and I am no expert. I am no different than any one of you. I will have many shortcomings to come, but I've learned that you must celebrate the wins. Today is a win.
My goal is to prove that you don't need some fancy degree or financial background to find a winning stock. You need to put in the time, effort and determination. And of course, a little luck helps too ☘️Thank you all!