Henry

Equity Research @Rebellionaire. Primarily covering Upstart, but deep diving other companies too. Posts are not financial advice.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

My conversation with @Upstart co-founder & incoming CEO Paul Gu @paulxgu, February 23, 2026 $UPST 🏆

(0:00) Introduction
(0:26) Co-Founder Experience & CEO Transition
(2:14) Upstart's Evolution
(5:01) Long-Term Vision & Growth
(7:31) Gu's $3.9M Insider Buy
(11:16) Model 25
(13:15) 100M Repayment Events
(14:31) Upstart Macro Index (UMI)
(17:04) Auto & HELOC Margin Potential
(20:08) Marketing & Borrower Relationships
(23:10) Upstart Capital Partners
(25:51) Bank Partner Growth
(27:28) Closing Remarks

[U.S. Department of Energy @ENERGY]

https://t.co/ZDknMBdCQ8

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@DIU_x $UMAC

[Henry @HenryInvests]

📅 Mark Your Calendars!

Friday, June 12th • 8:30 AM PT / 11:30 AM ET • I'll sit down with @Upstart $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer LIVE 🚨

Have a question you'd like to ask Andrea? Drop it below and I'll bring the best to the stage 🎙️

Watch live right here on X @HenryInvests or @Rebellionaire (X & YouTube) 🦁🦁

[Rebellionaire @Rebellionaire]

A few weeks ago @nerdalert put his foot in his mouth on a call with the team at $LMND.

One throwaway comment turned into a much bigger question:

Are investors looking at Lemonade the wrong way?

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@ZaStocks Obvious winner imo

[Za @ZaStocks]

$RDDT CEO dropped a bomb on an AMA yesterday that the market might be waking up to.

Reddit’s data is invaluable for AI labs, the market hasn’t caught on yet.

“Foundational models benefit from Reddit in pre training, post training, grounding, and search because our authentic human perspective is increasingly rare.

That’s why people are increasingly looking to Reddit for real opinions and real experiences - and why Reddit content is the #1 cited source across LLMs.

No other data source can replicate the continuously-generated, community-curated, preference-labeled map of how humans actually communicate and make judgments.

These partnerships are meaningful to us and to our partners, and it’s important to us to have partnerships that capture the value only Reddit can bring.”

That sounds like big deals are coming.

S&P 500 inclusion (if not this quarter then next), data licensing deal renewals, and the Anthropic litigation settlement are on the horizon.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

🚨 BREAKING: SpaceX $SPCX to IPO at $135 / share, with 555,555,555 shares available

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$CRWD Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $1.39B (Est. $1.38B) 🟡; +26% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.10 (Est. $1.07) 🟡
🔹 ARR: $5.51B; +24% YoY
🔹 Net New ARR: $255.8M; +32% YoY
🔸 Stock Split: 4-for-1

FY Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $5.915B-$5.959B (Est. $5.9B) 🟡
🔹 ARR: $6.532B-$6.556B
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $1.452B-$1.480B
🔹 Adj. EPS: $4.88-$4.96
🔹 Net New ARR Growth: +27.7% at midpoint

Q2 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.16-$1.17 (Est. $1.15) 🟡
🔹 ARR: $5.793B-$5.795B
🔹 Revenue: $1.436B-$1.442B
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $345.6M-$349.1M

Other Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $468.5M
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $1.32B; +26% YoY
🔹 GAAP Subscription Gross Margin: 78%
🔹 Non-GAAP Subscription Gross Margin: 81%
🔹 Module Adoption: 51% for 6+ modules, 35% for 7+ modules, 25% for 8+ modules
🔹 Split Record Date: June 25, 2026
🔹 Split-Adjusted Trading Expected: July 2, 2026
🔹 Cash & Cash Equivalents: $4.55B

Financials:
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $325.7M
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: $283.4M
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $590.9M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $468.5M

Commentary:
🔸 “In Q1, the worlds of cybersecurity and frontier AI collided: this was the Mythos moment.”

🔸 “CrowdStrike is AI security infrastructure, critical to successful AI adoption.”

🔸 “Our record Q1 net new ARR, QuiltWorks coalition, and AIDR innovation are indicators of our own AI inflection point.”

🔸 “We are raising our full-year net new ARR growth expectations to 27.7%, at the midpoint, now an acceleration over the prior fiscal year.”

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@RonAMacro Thanks Ron!

[Henry @HenryInvests]

This is a fabulous opportunity for retail investors to ask the Andrea Blankmeyer, the new CFO of Upstart $UPST, any questions they may have about the business.

Please drop your questions below, or feel free to DM me them as well.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

📅 Mark Your Calendars!

Friday, June 12th • 8:30 AM PT / 11:30 AM ET • I'll sit down with @Upstart $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer LIVE 🚨

Have a question you'd like to ask Andrea? Drop it below and I'll bring the best to the stage 🎙️

Watch live right here on X @HenryInvests or @Rebellionaire (X & YouTube) 🦁🦁

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@paulxgu oh yes

[Paul Gu @paulxgu]

markets really are getting less efficient aren't they

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@piggysensei2 @Rebellionaire It's definitely something to monitor I agree, but I am going to give it more time.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

The Upstart Trustpilot Index #UTPI is an incredible alpha-generating tool ⚔️

Not only did UTPI correctly identify and predict the model tightening event of 3Q25, but it also successfully forecasted the May origination surge.

This is the research we bring @Rebellionaire. While others focus on narrative and price, we look at the facts. And the fact is UTPI told us May originations were going to surge, pushing $UPST well ahead of the Street's 2Q26 volume estimates.

We aren't surprised.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Upstart $UPST May Originations $1,453M, up 52% YoY and 14% MoM 🔥💥

Originations per Day reached $58.2M, up 58% YoY and 21% MoM. May Originations were 14% higher MoM despite having 1.5 less origination days 🐇🎩

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@piggysensei2 @Rebellionaire

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@piggysensei2 @Rebellionaire And I keep adding to my position. The fundamental story is getting better while the stock lags. That is a great LT setup.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@piggysensei2 @Rebellionaire Right, my point is that the fundamentals always end up mattering. And the fact we've just accepted they 'don't matter' for this stock says it all

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@piggysensei2 @Rebellionaire Okay, let's see. By your logic, we should sell stocks with improving fundamentals if their stock price is going down.

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@piggysensei2 @Rebellionaire You know what it is related to though? Revenue. And fundamentals drive stock prices over the long-term

[Henry @HenryInvests]

@Tai_Chen_Hsiang Nice job!

[Henry @HenryInvests]

Upstart $UPST May Originations $1,453M, up 52% YoY and 14% MoM 🔥💥

Originations per Day reached $58.2M, up 58% YoY and 21% MoM. May Originations were 14% higher MoM despite having 1.5 less origination days 🐇🎩

[Patient Money @PatientMoneyCo]

Perfect example of a stock that most Wall Street analysts do not understand. That makes it a perfect stock for anyone willing to take the time to understand it themselves.

Negative Wall Street sentiment can suppress share price in the short term but company performance always shows in the end. You just have to be patient.