Matt Smith

Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 7 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

This video has aged very well. We will always be willing to change our mind when new information comes to light.

But the harder thing can be to actually make a change in the portfolio when the relative opportunities have shifted. Rebellionaire helps clients make those tough decisions in real time.

[Rebellionaire @Rebellionaire]

What are Rebellionaire's SpaceX vs Tesla Growth Expectations?

SpaceX could be generating 1.5x Tesla's profits by Q1 2027, with 6x the revenue growth.

And by Q1 2028, SpaceX could see ~600% profit growth.

This is bull-case Tesla vs base-case SpaceX and it changes everything about the merger.

The numbers shocked us.

What do you think?

*Timestamps*
0:00 Intro
1:10 Tesla Q1 2027 Bull Case
5:03 SpaceX Q1 2027 Projections
9:28 Tesla vs. SpaceX: The Problem
11:58 Wall Street's SpaceX Blind Spot
15:42 SemiAnalysis & 2028 Outlook
17:19 Changing Views on the Merger
21:21 Still Tesla Fans

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@farzyness Your mind and turbine blades are on opposite ends of the “capable of melting” spectrum.

[Mike Baier @Mike__Baier]

@shaunmmaguire @SpaceX We are also heavily manipulating atoms here at boring - 900,000 lbs per machine worth - and looking for people of all skillsets to help us remove traffic from the world: https://t.co/JpLYtI84ML

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@farzyness @davelee @bot Yeah I’ve noticed that and I get the tradeoff, but I miss seeing the real you more often. Even though most of what real you says is retarded.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@TimBuzby But the flying car is interesting, and the folding phone isn't.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

My phone can fold itself now: Wow, fun!

My car can fly: Meh...

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@Investanswers I watched the video to see if it was just a clickbait thumbnail, but it was even more cringe than I could've imagined. He basically thinks Tesla won't ever deliver that car to any customers.

Max levels of EDS - I sure hope Elon gets him to shave his head this year!

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

I'm either going to massively add to my lead in EPS accuracy or blow it completely. Looking forward to finding out soon!

[Roland Pircher @piloly]

This is what the Tesla community and analysts are expecting from tonight's Tesla earnings call, broken down into one key metric.

@TSLAFanMtl $0.40
@garyblack00 $0.42
@CuriousPejjy $0.42
@TroyTeslike $0.44
Street Consensus $0.45
@nerdalert $0.57
@ICannot_Enough $0.90

The chart is sorted by the best performance over the last four estimates.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@TeslaBoomerMama 👀

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@WR4NYGov Yeah and as they said on the call it was still huge QoQ growth even if you strip out Cursor.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

Super Intelligence revenue roughly tripled QoQ, total revenue roughly doubled.

Wow.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@aaronburnett I had a backup internet provider that sucks so I'm going to drop the backup and probably use SpaceX as the primary.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

🎶 It’s my dish in a box! 🎶

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

BOOM! $SPCX crushing it!! 🚀📈

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

SPACEX $SPCX JUST REPORTED EARNINGS

EPS of $0.35 beating expectations of $0.16🟢
Revenue of $14.6B beating expectations of $12.9B🟢

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@farzyness Yes.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

I know I’m a bit late to the party, but I’m seriously impressed with what Grok Bot has accomplished in its first ~24 hours.

Here’s the summary it pulled together:

💸 Got about $1,000 back from an airline: a refund on a seat upgrade plus reimbursement for a flight disruption
📦 Disputing a bogus customs fee from a shipper, and talked me out of a "fix" that would've cost more than the fee
📭 Unsubscribed me from 66 junk email lists, plus 19 kinds of LinkedIn spam
✈️ Planned logistics and made a lunch reservation for an upcoming NYC trip
🛒 Read a month of my grocery orders and learned what our family of 9 actually buys
🧾 Dug up a forgotten tax payment and checked where I stand before year-end
🏈 Took over my fantasy team: waiver claims and a weekly lineup schedule
And it handled the logins and verification codes along the way. @grok

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@DillonLoomis I feel like I'm just scratching the surface of what it can do. I can't wait to keep getting better at using it while it gets better in general!

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@rmbdas17 I'm guessing most people won't catch the reference, but I felt this one just had to be said.

[Matt Smith @nerdalert]

@TeslaGoesPlaid 😳

Erm, it's very cold here...