When the market looks at $ONDS it sees a pile of acquisitions being built off of shareholder dilution. I see a defense company being assembled in real time without tapping the debt market.
Ondas has a $757 million pro forma backlog with a revenue target of $525 to $550 million for the 2026 fiscal year. I started a position at the end of last week and finished writing a bullish deep dive which will be out tomorrow.
I believe that the acquisitions, customer relationships and $PLTR partnership are beginning to fit together. This combination could become dramatically more valuable over the next five years. Here is the underlying business Ondas is building at a time when autonomous warfare is still in it’s infancy:
· Sentrycs provides cyber-based counter-drone capabilities
· Iron Drone adds physical interception
· DZYNE brings Dronebuster, the ULTRA reconnaissance aircraft and IonStrike.
· World View adds persistent sensing from the stratosphere
· Roboteam adds ground robotics
I see a company positioning itself to detect threats, collect intelligence and deliver responses across multiple domains. Integrating those capabilities could make Ondas more valuable to a customer than any individual product.
Then there is Mistral which was a brilliant acquisition. That acquisition gives Ondas direct prime contractor access to U.S. Army and Special Operations contract vehicles, alongside domestic manufacturing and integration capabilities. Owning that customer relationship matters when you are trying to turn a growing technology portfolio into larger defense programs.
The financial progress is getting harder to ignore:
• Q2 revenue: $83.8 million, up 67% sequentially
• Pro forma organic revenue growth: 85% year over year
• Reported June backlog: $613 million
• Pro forma backlog including DZYNE and Cyberhawk: $757 million
• Full-year 2026 revenue target: $525–$550 million
I will be focusing on the organic growth Ondas can produce because acquisitions alone cannot carry this thesis indefinitely. I want to see the underlying businesses growing while orders convert into deliveries with more cash hitting the cash flow statement.
Palantir is where the longer-term opportunity gets especially interesting. The $PLTR partnership covers manufacturing, mission planning and intelligence processing aboard autonomous platforms. SkyWeaver is being developed to process information closer to the mission and support operations when connectivity is degraded.
My view is that coordinating drones, sensors and ground systems could become one of the most valuable parts of this market. Ondas has an opportunity to participate in that software layer alongside its hardware. A recurring software business would strengthen the economics considerably.
The balance sheet also matters as Ondas ended June with approximately $1.38 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, against roughly $6.4 million of debt. Subsequent acquisitions have consumed substantial cash but that starting position gives management room to build.
Equity financing has a real cost as every new share reduces my ownership unless the value created exceeds dilution. I am judging management on whether this acquisition strategy ultimately produces greater earning power per share. You will need to read my article which is forthcoming to see my bull case and price targets.
I will be watching organic growth, backlog conversion, cash consumption and the share count together. My bet is that Ondas can turn this collection of capabilities into a profitable defense platform whose earning power grows faster than its share count.
My question for the Ondas community is which development do you think would provide the strongest evidence that this strategy is working?