negative yield

[Pegasus @PegasusFund]

85% of AMZN’s net income last quarter was the valuation jump in Anthropic. AMZN owns $180b~ in Anthropic equity. AWS AI revenue is ~45% Anthropic/28% OpenAI, per Barclays. Sales to labs pushed AWS prices 20% higher for ML in June and 15% in Jan. MS upgrade ignores customer risk

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh says AI is going to "fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy" by improving forecasts.

"We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends. Not so long from now, it won't be torture."

[RJC @RJCcapital]

rumours that VARA AI fund is getting blown up

Here are its holdings lol

[ConvexityMaven @ConvexityMaven]

New Commentary.....

The CBOT Bond future is Negatively Convex such that a further rate rise could create the equivalent of Scott Bessent selling $110 Billion twenty-year bonds into the market.

Today, I detail the construction of this futures contract and posit that this could be a contributing factor to why interest rates have risen so quickly.

More specifically, be careful that 6% on the twenty-year rate could become a Convexity Vortex.

https://t.co/BmdjkaGtNx

@profplum99 @LukeGromen @dampedspring @jam_croissant @biancoresearch @EconguyRosie @ErikSTownsend @tracyalloway

[Liquid @liquidtrading]

JUST IN: OpenAI perpetual futures slide on Liquid as FT reports that annualized recurring revenue is $20 billion lower than expected

[BetterIRR @BetterIRR]

Bit the bullet and got long $FOUR

Kind of funny at one point the guide was 1B in adjusted FCF exiting 2027 and the marketcap is now 2.9B

[General Intuition @gen_intuition]

General Intuition has raised another $220M at a $6.2B valuation as we start making our models available. These are an entirely new class of foundation models, trained on billions of action-labeled videos, capable of acting in realtime in never seen before environments.

1/6

[U.E. @madcap_cap]

so apparently this is what's holding it up, by contribution

[Wall Street Rollup @WallStRollup]

Steve Eisman is short $FICO

“I think FICO very arrogantly raised prices about over 500%…”

“Has ticked off literally everybody in the lending world.”

[Mike @MarketMike]

I still find this to be a WILD analog. Both of these quick moves in yields happened during a Trump midterm year. If the analog holds, that means rates should be taking a breather in October.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

This is ABSOLUTELY wild. The reverse mirror image is so accurate it's almost scary. Very scary.

The inverse of the 10yr yield is.... $MCD.

What a sight.

[ace $ @acemoney21]

Disgusting tape.

[Compound248 💰 @compound248]

People often ask me whether I worry about how frothy the market is.

I tell them, "Stocks have already crashed."

Inside the market, there is a crash. That doesn't mean they can't crash more. But tons of well-known stocks are down 50, 70, or 90% from their highs. It is hard to see at the overall market level because, at the same time, some big companies have become giants, offsetting losses in the index.

I'm not just talking about the SaaS massacre - stocks of many companies that are generally regarded as excellent businesses have been smashed, and almost nobody notices.

I've never seen anything like it: the index is so strong, but so many quality constituents are so weak.

From ATHs:

Nike: -84%
McDonalds: -31%
CarMax: -63%
PayPal: -83%
Pepsi: -34%
Disney: -50%
Dick's: -46%
Wendy's: -75%
Charter: -72%
T. Rowe Price: -52%
Campbell's: -71%
Constellation Software: -46%
Kraft Heinz: -70%
Fiserv: -80%
Home Depot: -35%
Hershey's: -40%
Alibaba: -65%
Otis: -35%
Lululemon: -80%
Rollins: -51%
Wingstop: -77%
Boeing: -55%
Lyft: -78%
The Trade Desk: -91%

Most of those are trading near multi-year lows. These were, and generally remain, large, "good" companies.

Now go look at smaller, lower-quality companies, and you will see some crazy sh!t.

There is carnage out there.

[David Kwon @dkwon98]

the a16z infra team is having a pretty nuts 2026

M&A
Cursor for $60B
World Labs for $8.2B
OpenRouter for $7.5B

Markups
Databricks at $190B
Mistral at $24B
Eleven Labs at $22B
Fal at $15-20B
Periodic at $7.5B

[Jukan @jukan05]

$INTC

[Shayne Coplan 🦅 @shayne_coplan]

Super excited to announce that Lisa Mantil has joined Polymarket to grow our Institutional business.

Polymarket is only the second job of Lisa's career. She spent 27 years at @GoldmanSachs rising through the ranks to Partner, where her specialty was understanding what institutional clients needed and building the financial products to deliver it. That's the sauce she's bringing to Polymarket, and we're grateful to have her.

If you're interested in taking large size in any event contract relevant to your business or portfolio, DM me or email [email protected].

Thank you to Cyril and @DavidSolomon for the intro and recommendation. Onwards.

[Coffee Capital @Coffee__Capital]

Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) turns bullish on bonds stating “I’m getting a big fat cushion for buying bonds at 5.2%”

[Kristian Niemi🇫🇮💙🇺🇦 @KrisseNiemi]

Took some profits out of my Yellow Cake position to add Flow Traders. I don’t read analyst reports. I just know that VIX index has calmed down so analysts must downgrade. Probably or something? Flow Traders and Uranium still two of my biggest holdings.

[Jukan @jukan05]

SK Hynix Pursues 2.5D Packaging Collaboration with Intel, Signaling Shifts in AI Chip Supply Chain

SK Hynix is drawing attention as it pursues collaboration with Intel in advanced packaging. The company is currently understood to be conducting tests that adopt Intel's 2.5D packaging technology to integrate High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) with logic chips.

With Taiwan's TSMC—the leader in 2.5D packaging—recently grappling with a severe supply crunch, expectations are growing that the 2.5D packaging supply chain for AI accelerators could diversify.

According to industry sources on the 11th, SK Hynix is conducting joint R&D with Intel on 2.5D packaging technology.

2.5D packaging is a technique that inserts a thin film-like interposer between the chip and substrate to enhance chip performance. Representative applications include the AI accelerators being developed by global big tech firms such as NVIDIA and AMD. AI accelerators are built by combining high-performance logic chips—such as GPUs—with HBM through 2.5D packaging.

At present, the global 2.5D packaging supply chain for big tech is effectively monopolized by TSMC, Taiwan's leading foundry. SK Hynix has also maintained a close partnership with TSMC, conducting joint R&D on HBM and 2.5D packaging.

Beyond this, SK Hynix is reviewing the adoption of Intel's 2.5D packaging technology, "Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge" (EMIB). The company is understood to be testing the integration of HBM and logic chips using EMIB-embedded substrates supplied by Intel.

A source familiar with the matter said, "While it is still at an early R&D stage, SK Hynix is actively conducting tests to implement 2.5D packaging using Intel's EMIB," adding that "the company is also scouting candidate materials and components that would be required for actual volume production."

The discussions between SK Hynix and Intel are seen as well aligned in terms of mutual interests.

TSMC's 2.5D packaging technology, "Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate" (CoWoS), has been suffering from acute supply shortages amid the recent AI semiconductor boom. As a result, several big tech firms have turned their attention to Intel's EMIB as a promising alternative to CoWoS.

From SK Hynix's perspective, preemptive R&D on Intel's EMIB is also necessary. While SK Hynix does not manufacture 2.5D packaging itself, developing HBM with the structure and characteristics of 2.5D packaging in mind is advantageous for improving yield and reliability. In fact, SK Hynix operates a small-scale line domestically dedicated to 2.5D packaging R&D.

Furthermore, the collaboration is expected to allow Intel to significantly expand its advanced packaging business. Intel's EMIB uses small silicon bridges to connect chips, rather than a broad interposer. Because bridges only need to be placed where chip-to-chip connections are required, chips can be arranged more flexibly and efficiently.

An industry source explained, "Intel is currently promoting its EMIB technology aggressively to SK Hynix and major OSATs," and "over the medium to long term, Intel's EMIB is expected to be added to the 2.5D packaging supply chain for AI accelerators."

$INTC

[Jukan @jukan05]

Kioxia will surpass Toyota’s market cap within this year.