Vinay Shukla

Yogi, coder, traveler, product leader, AWS, x-VP @ x-AWS, x-Hortonworks, x-Oracle. Startup advisor. Views my own.

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Used the AI to digest every word of this thread, go HALO and thanks Jeff.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time.

A super cycle already underway before Hormuz closed.
Brent will break out. The security premium is not transitory.

Three drivers. Not fading. Intensifying.

Deglobalization. Electrification. Redistribution.

All three turbo-charged versus our 2020 super cycle call.

We are still in the bottom of the first inning. None of the imbalances have been resolved. They grow by the day.

Own the grains/softs. Own the metals. Own the molecules.

Remember, you cannot print molecules https://t.co/XQpR4p4HPL.

10/10

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Amazon Redshift got even faster and less expensive with Redshift RG instance, no separate pricing for data lake queries, good bye $5 per TB pricing as well. https://t.co/0u7CJ5bPF6

[Robert Sterling @RobertMSterling]

Me and the boys after winning World Wars 3 to 11

[HH Sheikh Mohammed @HHShkMohd]

Warmest wishes and greetings to those celebrating Diwali in the UAE and around the world. May this festival of lights bring peace, safety, and prosperity to you and your loved ones. Happy Diwali!

[Vivek Ramaswamy @VivekGRamaswamy]

Happy Diwali! May the light prevail over darkness. ����

[Kash Patel @Kash_Patel]

Happy Diwali 🪔 - celebrating the Festival of Lights around the world, as good triumphs over evil.

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Hope we see the power of independent judiciary now.

[Daniel Di Martino @DanielDiMartino]

SUMMARY OF H-1B EXECUTIVE ORDER

- ENTRY BAN: No H-1B visa holder may enter the United States beginning Sunday September 21st, including current visa holders, unles they pay $100K to enter.

- VISA FEE: New H-1B and H-1B extensions must pay 100K to be processed and 100K per year every year thereafter to maintain them.

This will effectively end the H-1B program completely. No one, even the highest paid at 500K will be paying an extra 100K a year to the government.

It will destroy the health care, higher education, and technology sectors as we know them if this isn't struck down in court.

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Justice for Chandra Nagamallaiah!

🇺🇸🇮🇳

[Balaji @balajis]

DECOUPLING FROM DOLLARS
The US sends India billions in printed dollars for valuable goods. This is actually the US government ripping off India, like it does Vietnam, and everyone else, including its own citizens...not vice versa.

To be precise: last year India exported $87B of valuable goods to the US for $42B of goods plus $45B worth of increasingly worthless dollars:

That difference of $45B was, effectively, made up by money printing, which the Fed does at will:

The current administration incorrectly thinks this is a bad deal for America, because they haven’t fully thought through the fact that the US can print dollars. India was giving America something that's always valuable (namely goods) for something that America can just print out of thin air (namely US dollars):

So...who was really ripping off whom?

As mentioned, this is the same trade America had with Vietnam. Vietnam worked hard to send America shoes, while America sent Vietnam printed dollars. And it’s the same trade America had with many countries, before the trade war. The world sends the US valuable goods, and gets mere Federal Reserve database entries in return:

The only reason the US had the right to do that — to run the financial database of the world, to print trillions for itself, and to freeze and seize the funds of billions ��� is because it set up what we call the rules-based order, what is in reality the American Empire. And of course it profited from that empire tremendously, but so did most of the empire's participants.

But now MAGA is dismantling that empire. It’s cutting off trade, talent, and even tourism. It’s abandoning its military commitments and telling allies to fend for themselves. It’s cutting off foreign aid and domestic universities. It is, in short, becoming a country not an empire.

The reason is because MAGA is fundamentally confused. It romanticizes 1945 America (the manufacturing country) without fully admitting that 2025 America makes its money in a completely different way, by managing the hub of a global financial empire.

Because the US is in denial about what it is — a money printer, not a manufacturer — it's currently on track to lose both the money-printing and the manufacturing. For example, the tariffs target the entire world (thereby reducing demand for the dollar in global trade) while also cutting off machine tools and raw materials from US entrepreneurs (thereby inhibiting the buildout of domestic manufacturing).

Anyway, I won't linger on the outlook for the US. It's made its decision and will live with it. Perhaps it will indeed be a Golden Age of Reindustrialization. And perhaps the transition to a "republic, not an empire" will go much better than the similar imperial climbdown of the UK or the USSR.

What should countries like India and Vietnam do?

They should turn a necessity into a virtue. The trade war has provided a powerful Schelling Point for the entire world to simultaneously stop using the dollar at the same time. This is also what America says it wants, for foreigners to stop "exploiting" it by accepting its printed dollars for hard goods.

So: abide by America's wishes and stop trading goods with America for dollars. Instead, trade goods with each other for local currencies (rather than USDs) and use gold for storing value (rather than USTs). Because there is no global reserve currency issued by a single country, trade remains roughly balanced over time.

Singapore's former PM calls this "world minus one." It's the continuation of global capitalism, just without America, who has voluntarily taken itself out of the game. Yes, there's a short-term adaptation cost, but the quicker that a country can decouple from the dollar the better.

Start saving in hard money instead.

[Doctor Thalamus @Neurochauhan]

Brahmins using pure Russian oil for Havan 🔥

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Lots of improvements in Aurora MySQL 3.10 version, find out details at https://t.co/1asuxuruMY

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

RT @biancoresearch: Next week, everything aligns, and a significant amount of data/reports will be released. Any one of them alone would be…

[Swami Sivasubramanian @SwamiSivasubram]

🚀 I’m really excited to see the launch of Aurora DSQL! It was just a few years ago when I was also leading Databases that we took up this hard engineering problem that teams have been trying to solve for years. To be able to address customers’ needs for multi-region high availability with strong consistency and low latency is incredible. But the team went further, they delivered an easy-to-use developer experience with no infrastructure management and no downtime maintenance. This has made it effortless to manage and free up developers time to innovate.

Great story from @Werner on the journey here, check it out:
https://t.co/5P0ZlWSvU2

[Gems @gemsofbabus_]

How she is able to keep a straight face while spitting straight-up lava is beyond me.😂

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Can you please explain how the percentage of your minorities went down 10x since 1947?

[Attaullah Tarar @TararAttaullah]

Targeting its own Sikh citizens with ballistic missiles is India's deep conspiracy against its minorities. Pakistan stands with the Sikh community in this difficult time. These cowardly acts are exposing India's true face to the world. What a shameful act!

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Don't believe anything until it is denied.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Tariff Pause is not because of bond market panic says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent 🚨

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

Ackman isn't Wall Street. He's a privileged cry baby who used CNBC to bully his long book

[Erik Townsend 🛢️ @ErikSTownsend]

While there's PLENTY of good reason for continuing concern about how DEI has compromised safety of flight, calling this a "near miss" or likening it to the AA vs. Blackhawk incident is just plain misinformation. There was no "evasive maneuvering", and that part was pure baseless sensationalism on the part of ZH.

500' vertical separation is more than adequate in Day VFR conditions if the T-38 had previously reported the departing airliner in sight, an important detail the ZeroHedge article doesn't even address.

The radar track shows that the T-38 made a ~10-15 degree right turn just before the recording starts. IF that turn was made after the T-38 pilot identified the departing airliner, then it appears to me to be an entirely appropriate (and adequate) course adjustment to assure a safe crossing.

Curiously, the "AirNav Radar" website doesn't show any altitude data (which the controllers could definitely see on both aircraft), so it's not possible to see how early the airliner climbed above the T-38's level flight altitude, another absolutely essential point to assessing whether there was really any remarkable incident here.

It's also possible that this happened with no awareness on the part of the T-38 pilot and the turn that appears to have been a timely traffic avoidance maneuver on the part of the T-38 was just coincidence. IF that's the case it would be much more serious. But without the ATC audio or altitude data, that's impossible to assess.

IF (and that's a big IF) ATC had already called the traffic to both pilots and the T-38 had reported traffic in sight and agreed to maintain visual separation, and particularly if all that happened before the T-38 adjusted course about 15 degrees right, then this just wasn't a big deal at all.

My real point is, the ZH author obviously doesn't even know what's important and what isn't. The post says "ATC issued instructions to both aircraft to help them avoid a collision", but makes no mention of WHEN that happened, which was the most essential point.

Bottom line, ZH is big enough and has enough editors to save the aviation reporting for editors who are pilots or otherwise have some clue what they are reporting on and know which facts are relevant and worthy of reporting. That was clearly not the case in this post. Maybe this was a big deal; maybe not. The only thing that's clear from the ZH article is that the ZH reporter had no clue what to look for.

[Vinay Shukla @NeoMythos]

Sad to hear this, his tweets were always insightful. RIP.

[Pippa Malmgren @DrPippaM]

It is with great sadness to announce that my father, The Hon. Dr. Amb. Harald Malmgren @Halsrethink has passed from us. He was an advisor to many Presidents and global leaders. He had many important accomplishments. At age 27, he successfully prevented General Curtis LeMay and the Joint Chiefs from dropping a nuclear weapon on the Soviet Union during The Cuban Missile Crisis, thus averting a nuclear catastrophe. He also advised @Toyota to start making cars inside the US at a time when everyone else was offshoring. There is more on his life and his wisdom coming. Thanks to @AmericanALCHMY as well, who filmed him before he passed. Thankfully his passing was peaceful. He loved Twitter and asked me to send thanks to all his followers.

Harald B Malmgren July 13, 1935 - February 13, 2025.

[Dr. Nicole LePera @Theholisticpsyc]

The grief of watching your parents age is something no one prepares you for.