NerdBracket

March Madness bracketology model - Analysis & Picks for your bracket! #CollegeBasketball #hoops #MarchMadness

Creator: @ToddBeach16
WVU Band/Duquesne

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

Congratulations to AsherBarzie, Optimal bracket and LukeBaumgartner for the top 3, all.picking Michigan to win! I let the B1G, almost 30 years with no champion, sway me. What a team.
#collegebasketball #hoops #MarchMadness #MarchMadness2026

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@Oli_Rioux is looking to increase his time on the floor at another school. @AlabamaMBB, you said you wanted more height. Bring him to Tuscaloosa!
#Bama #RollTide #collegebasketball #hoops

[Rioux Olivier @Oli_Rioux]

Official announcement

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@Oli_Rioux A change will be good for you. I have often thought that you could get more minutes at another school. Those minutes will help you to develop faster in your quest. I look forward to seeing you play in the near future.

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@kosi_hoops @herdHater @WVU4LIFE26003 @WVUFanMattLong @MegTheSavage @pokeywvu @wvufandom @Hail_WV @eersandbeers @beersneers_wv @wvfunnyguy @DavidWo25276002 @TheWoodWV @OldRowWVU @LGMountaineers I didn't know your love of WVU went that far!

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

In the NerdBracket group, it is OptimalBracket still in the lead with 780 points, Asherbarzie still second with 730 points. There is a 3 way tie at 3rd 670 points - mimivolfan, jessetalksports and kosihoops. It's getting real now as the Elite 8 games start today. We will get to the Final Four teams after Sunday's games.
#CollegeBasketball #hoops #MarchMadness #MarchMadness2026

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@OtterBrackets I'm a Bama fan since I live in Tuscoosa. Look, we know Nate would sell his grandmother to win a game. He tries to get every advantage that he can. And he's not ashamed of it. And we pay him well.

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@EvanMiya Mm

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@EvanMiya Ovl6g.yogm .oglvo

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@EvanMiya Look om9 k.g.ool5go Lol m

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@EvanMiya 9ll

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@801bracketology I can feel the breeze over here from that revolving door at Utah State. But they're getting good coaches and good recruits.

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@MattGrossenbach I think he calls in from a booth like this.

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

From ChatGPT:

## If Michigan wins (20%)

Order:

1. OptimalBracket
2. AsherBarzie
3. espnfan
4. Luke

Estimated:

* Optimal ~40%
* Asher ~35%
* espnfan ~15%
* Luke ~10%

---

## If Arizona wins (25%)

Order:

1. kosihoops
2. Ashman2372
3. jessetalksports
4. Zach

Estimated:

* kosihoops ~45%
* Ashman ~25%
* jesse ~20%
* Zach ~10%

---

## If Duke wins (30%)

This is where it gets interesting:

* mimivolfan (470) → best positioned
* NerdBracket (410) → way behind but UNIQUE path

Estimated:

* mimivolfan ~70%
* NerdBracket ~30%

👉 Because:

* Only 2 Duke brackets
* But NerdBracket has a **60-point deficit to overcome**

---

## If Illinois wins (15%)

Mostly benefits:

* OptimalBracket
* AsherBarzie
* LukeBaumgartner

Estimated split:

* Optimal ~45%
* Asher ~35%
* Luke ~15%
* others minimal

---

## Field chaos (10%)

Spread thin:

* Slight lean to diverse brackets (kosihoops, jesse)

---

# 🏆 FINAL WIN PROBABILITIES

### 🥇 **OptimalBracket — 24%**

* Leader
* Strong Michigan + Illinois paths

---

### 🥈 **AsherBarzie — 21%**

* Very similar to Optimal, slightly behind

---

### 🥉 **kosihoops — 18%**

* Best Arizona path
* Strong leverage but crowded lane

---

### 🔥 **mimivolfan — 16%**

* HUGE Duke leverage
* Only real threat from Duke side

---

### ⚠️ **Ashman2372 — 8%**

### ⚠️ **jessetalksports — 6%**

### ⚠️ **espnfan — 4%**

### ⚠️ **LukeBaumgartner — 2%**

### ⚠️ **ZachGebhart — 1%**

---

### 💀 **NerdBracket — ~0.5–1%**

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

Alright everyone, the NerdBracket group challenge is in full swing! OptimalBracket is in 1st place at 99.8% (very apt name), Asherbarzie is in 2nd and kosihoops is in 3rd. NerdBracket, of course, is at the bottom of the pack. But I'm going to go full Dave Wottle on you (look it up, youngsters), and take the lead soon. "Things are gonna change, I can feel it."
#collegebasketball #hoops #MarchMadness2026 #MarchMadness

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@KISSproductions It's a marathon, not a sprint ha.

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@BracketBud If you only knew. That's me in my Christmas Suit.

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

@BracketBud Ha ha 👍

[NerdBracket @nerd_bracket]

Alright everyone, the tournament is starting soon. Get your best trash talk on and may the best bracket win! Box out and nerd up!

Again, join my ESPN Bracket Challenge group! The link for my group is:

https://t.co/vjYybJgyME

#collegebasketball #hoops #MarchMadness #MarchMadness2026