Olivia
Online
NerdTech
@nerdtechgasm
Software Dev. Tech & Geopolitics. I don't care what side you're on, I stand with the truth.
Joined July 2016
533 Following
3.1K Followers
40.1K Posts
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I strongly suspect (gut instinct), Iran already has nukes, just not in the final assembled form, but as separate components to fulfil Khamenei's Fatwa on nukes.
Functional, but empty warheads, ready to receive the "fire offering" (enriched U).
Zechariah 5. Read it.
There's a term for people who actively work for the interest of a foreign state, at the expense of their fellow citizens and their own nations.
Pro-Israel Americans are proud to help defeat anti-Israel candidates!
Being pro-Israel is good policy and good politics!
Their efforts to corrupt American politics will backfire, and give other true patriots hope and courage to rise up against AIPAC and other Israeli interest money merchants.
If they succeed in getting rid of Massie, America will enter a very dark era.
The primary election of @RepThomasMassie is the pivotal moment for America. Whether America has a chance at being sovereign, free from foreign occupation in it's politics.
Unprecedented amount of Israeli interest $ is involved, to warn others to bend the knee. If it fails..
Who to follow
Igor Wallossek 
@IgorWallossek
Publisher of igor'sLAB, curious and unique. Imprint: https://t.co/EOB94nSISW (EN) https://t.co/uzOBBswKQY (DE)
Nemez
@GPUsAreMagic
Helping make GPUs faster, hobby semicon/FPGAs and too much Minecraft. Opinions are my own, nowadays I mostly rant. Also on https://t.co/dulcLVhvfX
kopite7kimi
@kopite7kimi
Some will disagree & argue that "Taiwan is not America's to give" or that the US cannot decide the fate of Taiwan.
These people are still delusional. They have no understanding of history nor geopolitics.
Without US intervention, Taiwan would have been reunified long ago.
fyi, there can be no real mutual win-win peaceful co-existence between China & America, until America cede it's claim over the proxy Taiwan.
China is now strong enough to demand a compromise from the US, like they demanded the UK to hand back HK, US must "give back" Taiwan.
The only way forward where America can slow its Imperial decline and perhaps pave path towards a great American revival is by humbling itself to accept a grand bargain with China.
Accept the olive branch from Xi, mutual win-win peaceful co-existence.
And China can never be a real superpower until it has complete territorial integrity, ie, by reunifying Taiwan with the mainland.
Because to accept Taiwan's status-quo is to admit & show they are weak and must obey US strategic interventions in their internal sovereign matters.
South Korea also.
fun fact, Snowden revealed that the NSA has a kill switch on Japan’s entire infrastructure, making them essentially dogs to the American empire
That headline from a UK rag is high-grade copium.
Really, Trump flew in CEOs of all the world's top companies and the major finance players of Blackrock, Blackstone, JP Morgan, VISA, MC et al.
The prize is the huge savings of 1.4B Chinese citizens. So much wealth, untapped.
America literally just sent every one of their CEO’s to China queuing with a begging bowl.
But sure, China isn’t a great power.
It's rather sad that "co-existence" was not the prevailing view in the halls of power in the West for a long time.
Like they were so delusional into thinking they could destroy Russia, and then destroy China, so they can rule the entire world.
Laughably detached from reality.
Immensely honored that on this historic day Guancha - one of China's most influential media outlets - featured their interview of me on the front page.
The headline: "Coexistence is the only option - Washington is beginning to internalize this."
This has been my thesis since Trump's reelection - a thesis that was, to put it mildly, not the prevailing view. But the events of today speak for themselves.
Link to the interview: https://t.co/lr4AetwZBR
@nerdtechgasm Yes, it is pretty funny but also insanely sad.
We have dropped 14k bombs on Iran and claim that its "MAGA" and yet Iran didn't collapse and now dislikes us more than they did before.... the world now faces an oil & fertilizer crisis... + increased resin & Helium costs.
@Jimster4801 Yet the hawks hyperventilate for a war to humiliate their enemies.
The illusion of grandeur has been shattered by America's weakness vs Iran, on full display for entire world to see. To cling onto that superiority complex now would be utter delusion.
Thus, they have to admit that US cannot wage war vs China, it is US that is the paper tiger.
What's going on? Are neocons having a come-to-Jesus moment?
After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see https://t.co/Io9xy1M8ks), you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war - publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains.
If anything, Boot’s interview is even more devastating than Kagan's piece, because it's not editorial opinion - he’s interviewing John Culver, a former top CIA analyst (he was national intelligence officer for East Asia) and one of the world’s foremost authorities on the Chinese military which he’s been studying since 1985.
This isn't a pundit opining - this is someone who spent decades inside the intelligence community staring at the actual data.
So what is Culver saying?
1) In case of war with Taiwan, the U.S. will flee the theater
This is undoubtedly the single most stunning revelation in the entire piece. Culver says that - as far as he is aware - the Pentagon’s plan in case of war with Taiwan is… flee!
This is the exact quote: "I think some of the thinking in the Pentagon, and it may have evolved since I retired, is that when we think there’s going to be a war, we need to get our high-value naval assets out of the theater, and then we would have to fight our way back in. From where, it’s not clear. Guam is no bastion either."
Why? Because, as he explains, any high-value U.S. assets would be sitting ducks in the entire area. China can strike U.S. forces deployed to Japan, Australia, or South Korea “in a way that Iran really can't” and, given that Iran has hit at least 228 targets across U.S. bases in the Middle East - forcing the U.S. to evacuate most of them - that's saying something. Also, U.S. aircraft carriers would need to operate within 1,000 miles of the fight to matter, which - given it’s well within range of Chinese missiles - they won’t.
As Culver bluntly puts it: “There's really no safe spaces.”
2) China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close
Culver says that “it’s hard to not be hyperbolic” about China’s military capabilities and that, at this stage, “it’s hard to point to an area other than submarines and undersea warfare and say the United States still has an advantage.”
In some critical areas, such as advanced munitions - which, when it comes to war, is pretty damn relevant - his assessment is that China leads by “magnitudes.” As a reminder, an order of magnitude means 10x so, by assuming he knows that and meant what he said, “magnitudes” means at least a hundred times more, meaning U.S. capabilities would be less than 1% those of China.
At the same time, Culver also says that “whichever side runs out of bullets first is going to lose.” So if China produces “magnitudes greater than our industrial base could produce” - as he puts it - then you don't need a PhD in military strategy to put two and two together…
The picture, if anything, is even more damning in shipbuilding capabilities. He reminds that a single shipyard in China - Jiangnan Shipyard, on Changxing Island near Shanghai - “has more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined.”
Put all Chinese shipyards together and China’s broader naval shipbuilding capacity is 232 times larger than that of the United States (and this is from a leaked U.S. Navy briefing slide).
Culver helpfully adds that China “deploys enough ships every year to replicate the entire French navy” - which, as a Frenchman, hurts a little, but at least we'll always have the cheese (I hope).
3) Despite this, a war in Taiwan is highly unlikely
If your only window into China is Western media coverage, you'd naturally assume all of the above means war over Taiwan is about to break out. After all, if China is so powerful and the U.S. so outmatched, why wouldn't it just take Taiwan and be done with it?
Culver’s assessment - and mine, incidentally - is the exact opposite: China’s increasing relative strength vis-a-vis the U.S. makes war less likely, not more.
How so? As Culver explains Taiwan is “a crisis Xi Jinping wants to avoid, not an opportunity he wants to seize.” The stronger China gets, the less it needs to fight: why launch a war when you can simply wait for the military balance to become so lopsided that the U.S. quietly drops its security guarantee on its own? Culver himself foresees a future “when Americans might start to say, maybe Taiwan is a war we don’t want to get involved in.” That would almost automatically mean peaceful reunification, which has always been China’s primary objective.
This doesn't mean China views the U.S. as harmless. Quite the contrary - Culver says Beijing sees America “as a very militarily aggressive country” that is “declining in power and becoming more violent” as a result. Which he says is one further reason why “war over Taiwan is not something that Xi Jinping is looking for.”
China doesn't want to hand a pretext to a dangerously trigger-happy power - all the more when patience alone delivers what it wants.
4) The game is up
Last but not least, perhaps the most revealing aspect of the interview is that Culver doesn’t seem to see a way out: this is structural and irreversible.
Asked by Boot whether “the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget, assuming it’s approved, [would] change the trend lines” (which, as a reminder, would constitute a 50% increase in defense spending), his reply is that “it would probably help to some extent, but I worry that we could be throwing good money after bad.” Not exactly brimming with optimism…
Similarly, when asked why the U.S. keeps investing billions in aircraft carriers and even “Trump-class battleships,” his answer is that it's because “the military services have a nostalgia for the things that meet their expectations for how you get promoted.” In other words, wasted money.
Same thing for the Pentagon's much-hyped “Hellscape” drone strategy to defend Taiwan. Culver asks the obvious question: “What drones are you talking about launching from where?” He points out that they’d “have to pre-deploy them if not on Taiwan itself then on Luzon or the Japanese southwest islands, all of which can be struck by the Chinese.” He adds that this is “the tyranny of time and distance when you look at war in the Pacific.”
The picture that emerges, both from Boot’s Culver interview and Kagan’s article, is remarkably consistent: the U.S. is “checkmate” in the Middle East, would need to entirely flee the Pacific theater before a war even starts, cannot produce enough weapons, cannot keep its supposed “allies” safe, and has no strategy to reverse any of it - nor can one even be produced given the structural nature of the gap. Even a 50% increase in defense spending, Culver says, would be “throwing good money after bad.” That's not my assessment - that's theirs.
Two of America's most prominent hawks, in two of its most establishment outlets, in the space of 48 hours, have essentially published the obituary of American military primacy.
Yesterday I concluded my post by saying that even the arsonists now smell the smoke. Today I'll say: the arsonists are now writing the fire report.
![RnaudBertrand's tweet photo. What's going on? Are neocons having a come-to-Jesus moment?
After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see https://t.co/Io9xy1M8ks), you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war - publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains.
If anything, Boot’s interview is even more devastating than Kagan's piece, because it's not editorial opinion - he’s interviewing John Culver, a former top CIA analyst (he was national intelligence officer for East Asia) and one of the world’s foremost authorities on the Chinese military which he’s been studying since 1985.
This isn't a pundit opining - this is someone who spent decades inside the intelligence community staring at the actual data.
So what is Culver saying?
1) In case of war with Taiwan, the U.S. will flee the theater
This is undoubtedly the single most stunning revelation in the entire piece. Culver says that - as far as he is aware - the Pentagon’s plan in case of war with Taiwan is… flee!
This is the exact quote: "I think some of the thinking in the Pentagon, and it may have evolved since I retired, is that when we think there’s going to be a war, we need to get our high-value naval assets out of the theater, and then we would have to fight our way back in. From where, it’s not clear. Guam is no bastion either."
Why? Because, as he explains, any high-value U.S. assets would be sitting ducks in the entire area. China can strike U.S. forces deployed to Japan, Australia, or South Korea “in a way that Iran really can't” and, given that Iran has hit at least 228 targets across U.S. bases in the Middle East - forcing the U.S. to evacuate most of them - that's saying something. Also, U.S. aircraft carriers would need to operate within 1,000 miles of the fight to matter, which - given it’s well within range of Chinese missiles - they won’t.
As Culver bluntly puts it: “There's really no safe spaces.”
2) China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close
Culver says that “it’s hard to not be hyperbolic” about China’s military capabilities and that, at this stage, “it’s hard to point to an area other than submarines and undersea warfare and say the United States still has an advantage.”
In some critical areas, such as advanced munitions - which, when it comes to war, is pretty damn relevant - his assessment is that China leads by “magnitudes.” As a reminder, an order of magnitude means 10x so, by assuming he knows that and meant what he said, “magnitudes” means at least a hundred times more, meaning U.S. capabilities would be less than 1% those of China.
At the same time, Culver also says that “whichever side runs out of bullets first is going to lose.” So if China produces “magnitudes greater than our industrial base could produce” - as he puts it - then you don't need a PhD in military strategy to put two and two together…
The picture, if anything, is even more damning in shipbuilding capabilities. He reminds that a single shipyard in China - Jiangnan Shipyard, on Changxing Island near Shanghai - “has more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined.”
Put all Chinese shipyards together and China’s broader naval shipbuilding capacity is 232 times larger than that of the United States (and this is from a leaked U.S. Navy briefing slide).
Culver helpfully adds that China “deploys enough ships every year to replicate the entire French navy” - which, as a Frenchman, hurts a little, but at least we'll always have the cheese (I hope).
3) Despite this, a war in Taiwan is highly unlikely
If your only window into China is Western media coverage, you'd naturally assume all of the above means war over Taiwan is about to break out. After all, if China is so powerful and the U.S. so outmatched, why wouldn't it just take Taiwan and be done with it?
Culver’s assessment - and mine, incidentally - is the exact opposite: China’s increasing relative strength vis-a-vis the U.S. makes war less likely, not more.
How so? As Culver explains Taiwan is “a crisis Xi Jinping wants to avoid, not an opportunity he wants to seize.” The stronger China gets, the less it needs to fight: why launch a war when you can simply wait for the military balance to become so lopsided that the U.S. quietly drops its security guarantee on its own? Culver himself foresees a future “when Americans might start to say, maybe Taiwan is a war we don’t want to get involved in.” That would almost automatically mean peaceful reunification, which has always been China’s primary objective.
This doesn't mean China views the U.S. as harmless. Quite the contrary - Culver says Beijing sees America “as a very militarily aggressive country” that is “declining in power and becoming more violent” as a result. Which he says is one further reason why “war over Taiwan is not something that Xi Jinping is looking for.”
China doesn't want to hand a pretext to a dangerously trigger-happy power - all the more when patience alone delivers what it wants.
4) The game is up
Last but not least, perhaps the most revealing aspect of the interview is that Culver doesn’t seem to see a way out: this is structural and irreversible.
Asked by Boot whether “the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget, assuming it’s approved, [would] change the trend lines” (which, as a reminder, would constitute a 50% increase in defense spending), his reply is that “it would probably help to some extent, but I worry that we could be throwing good money after bad.” Not exactly brimming with optimism…
Similarly, when asked why the U.S. keeps investing billions in aircraft carriers and even “Trump-class battleships,” his answer is that it's because “the military services have a nostalgia for the things that meet their expectations for how you get promoted.” In other words, wasted money.
Same thing for the Pentagon's much-hyped “Hellscape” drone strategy to defend Taiwan. Culver asks the obvious question: “What drones are you talking about launching from where?” He points out that they’d “have to pre-deploy them if not on Taiwan itself then on Luzon or the Japanese southwest islands, all of which can be struck by the Chinese.” He adds that this is “the tyranny of time and distance when you look at war in the Pacific.”
The picture that emerges, both from Boot’s Culver interview and Kagan’s article, is remarkably consistent: the U.S. is “checkmate” in the Middle East, would need to entirely flee the Pacific theater before a war even starts, cannot produce enough weapons, cannot keep its supposed “allies” safe, and has no strategy to reverse any of it - nor can one even be produced given the structural nature of the gap. Even a 50% increase in defense spending, Culver says, would be “throwing good money after bad.” That's not my assessment - that's theirs.
Two of America's most prominent hawks, in two of its most establishment outlets, in the space of 48 hours, have essentially published the obituary of American military primacy.
Yesterday I concluded my post by saying that even the arsonists now smell the smoke. Today I'll say: the arsonists are now writing the fire report.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HIFMk0mbMAAA8DI.jpg)
The Western gov have a nasty habit of stealing foreign investments and reserves, and weaponizing the financial system and dishing out sanctions.
In China's pov, putting investments in America is high risk.. thus, they will demand high rewards.
None higher than Taiwan.
The only way forward where America can slow its Imperial decline and perhaps pave path towards a great American revival is by humbling itself to accept a grand bargain with China.
Accept the olive branch from Xi, mutual win-win peaceful co-existence.
Jensen Huang, Tim Cooke, Elon Musk, and a whole lot of JP Morgan types are going to China with Trump to try and reverse the "trade war" vs China which has backfired spectacularly.
Not just rare earths, China is THE supply chain for entire globe for almost every major industry.
The best outcome for America would be not just trade normalization, but further investments from China into US to revitalize manufacturing using Chinese companies to hire Americans. But this is difficult, after many years of hostility, there is no trust US would respect laws..
This quantum consciousness explains everything, including free will, and the illusory state of our perceived reality.
fyi, 99.99% of atoms are "empty space", nothing, meaning, your biology of proteins & lipids, is 99.99% nothing, you shouldn't exist.
https://t.co/dcUZPs0TiW
If you do not comprehend my statements on quantum mechanics & consciousness, here is a great interview with Federico Faggin (the creator of microprocessors & neural net AI!) who have much research & soul searching, arrived at the truth.
https://t.co/dcUZPs0TiW
The recent world congress of Neuroscience, all the top researchers there, they conclude "we don't know how consciousness works or what it even is".. because they rule out the possibility that we're just an avatar to the quantum field, the underlying everything: the source, God.
The recent world congress of Neuroscience, all the top researchers there, they conclude "we don't know how consciousness works or what it even is".. because they rule out the possibility that we're just an avatar to the quantum field, the underlying everything: the source, God.
fyi, China doesn't even want NVIDIA chips anymore. They have homegrown chips, optimized for homegrown code, and advance photonics processors are making rapid progress.
This is why Jensen was pissed with Trump escalated trade war vs China, but it's too late to fix.
Jensen Huang, Tim Cooke, Elon Musk, and a whole lot of JP Morgan types are going to China with Trump to try and reverse the "trade war" vs China which has backfired spectacularly.
Not just rare earths, China is THE supply chain for entire globe for almost every major industry.
The world will never be the same again.
MARCO RUBIO: “The goal of the war in Iran is now to return it to how it was before Trump started the war.”
Unreal.
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