Conclusion: Special situation investing is all about risk/reward and probability analysis.
We look for opportunistic upside where downside is limited, where we pick up "cheap optionality". Even when probability is low, these investments generally have solid payouts.
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As promised, here's my 2022 outperform shopping list and my 2022 thesis.
Let's breakdown what this is, why these assets, and how I approach this, and then the bullcase for each individual asset.
@BennettTomlin I must be a right idiot then as I follow you as a crypto influencer. Perhaps as a sceptical and pessimistic crypto influencer but one nevertheless. Maybe time I smarten up hey?
In terms of adoption, Bitcoin has roughly the same users as the Internet had in 1997.
But Bitcoin's growing faster. Next 4 years on current path will bring Bitcoin users to 1b people, that's the equivalent of 2005 for the Internet.
Transparency update: We have periodically released public thoughts about select investments at @arca.
In the spirit of improving #transparency in this asset class, here is an update on these positions, and Arca's current involvement
$HXRO $CHZ $WNXM $EOS $SUSHI $LEO $GNO
Yesterday I was pleased to host a meeting between @elonmusk & the leading Bitcoin miners in North America. The miners have agreed to form the Bitcoin Mining Council to promote energy usage transparency & accelerate sustainability initiatives worldwide.
His bitcoin position was the natural lede from my interview with @RayDalio, currently streaming at #Consensus2021 by @CoinDesk. But do listen to the rest: A brilliant expose on the world's looming debt crisis and the world's uncertain monetary future. https://t.co/cDZdVcM2X6
#bitcoin oscilates in the dark blue band around S2F model value. Buying opportunities like today are rare (Q1 2019 when I wrote the S2F article, March 2020 due to covid, and now). Life is all about choices.
Right now, $SUSHI as a protocol is bringing in about $1.39B from fees on the DEX every year, with over $200M being distributed back to users on the platform.
$SUSHI market cap = $1.8B
That’s right, $SUSHI is nearly worth less than it makes in a single year.
Let that sink in...