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⚡️I asked the governor of the Hormuz Gan province of Iran if they were prepared to be nuked by Israel
His response,
“we might have a surprise for them.”
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What to watch: if the 82nd Airborne deploys forward to Bahrain or Qatar and the amphibious groups enter the Gulf, it's happening.
If Trump extends past April 6th, oil drops $8-12 in a session.
Full Bayesian breakdown, game theory analysis, and trade positioning here:
https://t.co/uE0eVlMiJ2
Trump just said "maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don't" like he's deciding between restaurants.
So I ran the actual math on what a US amphibious assault on Kharg looks like.
Short version: it's a 13% bet. Here's why...
The most likely outcome (~70%) is that Trump doesn't invade.
He talks about it, positions forces, uses it as leverage, extends the April 6th deadline again.
Same pattern as the last month: escalatory rhetoric, market panic, de-escalation, relief rally, repeat.