NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

Resampling NFL event outcomes, similar to @mlb_simulator for baseball.
Created by @DerekGrifka
Inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

I built a simulator that re-prices luck in an NFL game. Every loose ball, field goal, and dropped pass is rerun 160K times.

Introducing the NFL Deserve-to-Win %

Built on data gathered via #nflverse

All code, models, and research can be found here:
https://t.co/uLHdBzsWFu

🧵

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@iamcogs

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@buildingSBbears Thank you!

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@randall_ta7138 I plan to provide more modeling capabilities later on, but for now this is just a retroactive tool 🫡

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

To prep for the upcoming 2026-27 season and understand better what to expect, I went ahead and re-simulated every 2025 playoff game.

The individual "lucky" game threads below 🧵

Data: nflverse & @FTNFantasy

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@chourigoat It is “catchable” passes which do not suggest repeatability year over year pls read the article my friend 🙏

https://t.co/BHdr8YkgLg

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@BradFromFlorida @FTNFantasy The Lions should try to make the playoffs, then they can be in these graphics

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@A_Wags24 @FTNFantasy I have a thread and article that could help
https://t.co/7Zp9jEbBCv

https://t.co/xeHUP9S0Iy

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

I built a simulator that re-prices luck in an NFL game. Every loose ball, field goal, and dropped pass is rerun 160K times.

Introducing the NFL Deserve-to-Win %

Built on data gathered via #nflverse

All code, models, and research can be found here:
https://t.co/uLHdBzsWFu

🧵

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

🚨 DEN are luck merchants! 🚨

🏈 BUF @ DEN — AFC Divisional
Final: BUF 30, DEN 33
Deserve-to-Win: BUF 66% / DEN 34% (29–38%)

Biggest swing: BUF fumble on a run, retained — 2.2 pt of luck to BUF

#NFL #BillsMafia #BroncosCountry

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

🚨 LA are luck merchants! 🚨

🏈 LA @ CHI — NFC Divisional
Final: LA 20, CHI 17
Deserve-to-Win: LA 8% / CHI 92% (89–94%)

Biggest swing: CHI drop (95% catch) — 2.5 pt of luck to LA

#NFL #RamsHouse #DaBears

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@Goalie_Wiz Good call .. I added them in my original baseball bot, but forgot to here. In bio now

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

I built a simulator that re-prices luck in an NFL game. Every loose ball, field goal, and dropped pass is rerun 160K times.

Introducing the NFL Deserve-to-Win %

Built on data gathered via #nflverse

All code, models, and research can be found here:
https://t.co/uLHdBzsWFu

🧵

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@tayeJ228421 Thanks!

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@TCarelliTakes Hahahahaha

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@mc1243657 I plan to post some old games, but also add to a website soon 🫡

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@braynwash198983 I plan to post some of the big games from last year, so will do!

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@EveryDinger Thank you! I've been doing the baseball one (@mlb_simulator) for a few years now. I've learned from that, so my friends suggested I make an NFL one. Thought it'd be a fun learning experience!

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

The dropped-pass and interceptable-throw charting used for model training and predictions comes from @FTNFantasy (via #nflverse)

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

Denver's 2024 defense caught 13 of 17 interceptable throws (77%). The model shrunk their estimated interceptable catch rate to ~55%.

In 2025 Denver caught 8 of 21 (38%), so the shrinkage provides a better estimate.

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@papamoon92 The underwater basket weaving luck o meter will go crazy

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

@NFLosophy Thank you! I actually wrote an in-depth report. Let me know thoughts/feedback/ideas!

https://t.co/xeHUP9S0Iy

https://t.co/uLHdBzsWFu

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

I'll post a verdict for every game this season from this account.

The full write-up explaining the model can be found here:
https://t.co/xeHUP9S0Iy

[NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @nfl_simulator]

Denver 27, Washington 26 in OT.

- A kickoff fumble Washington kept (+2.1)
- An interceptable throw picked (−2.0)
- An OT drop on a 92% ball (−2.0)

Net luck: +0.31 to Washington.
Deserve-to-win: Denver 59%