Gridiron Research

Leveraging AI tooling to power NFL analytics research.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Win your fantasy leagues, parlays, and bar arguments about football with the help of AI and NFL MCP. Sign up and get started for free! Link in bio.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Pittsburgh's offense, EPA per play:
Designed runs: +0.102 (1st in NFL)
Dropbacks: -0.072 (26th)

Jaylen Warren: +0.128 per carry, 3rd of 39 rushers with 60+ carries.

SNF opponent Cincinnati ranks 27th in EPA allowed per run.

The plan writes itself.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

@Vikeologist https://t.co/0Pm9uF762J

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Vikings fans, about your new QB 👀

Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in garbage-time TD passes. A quarter of his Raiders yards came with their win probability under 10%.

You paid a 3rd for the box score. Lambeau will tell.

Powered by NFL MCP → https://t.co/xAUrqvEIY0

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

The NFL leader in EPA per dropback isn't Burrow, Purdy or Goff.

It's Trevor Lawrence: +0.284 (31 QBs, 150+ dropbacks).

His previous best: +0.135 in 2022.

18 TD, 4 INT. Jacksonville's +108 point differential leads the league.

Next: at Tennessee. Pulled with NFL MCP.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Vikings fans, about your new QB 👀

Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in garbage-time TD passes. A quarter of his Raiders yards came with their win probability under 10%.

You paid a 3rd for the box score. Lambeau will tell.

Powered by NFL MCP → https://t.co/xAUrqvEIY0

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Daniel Jones, EPA per dropback:
2025: +0.139 (7th of 42 QBs)
2026: -0.205 (29th of 31)

That -0.344 swing is the biggest one-year drop by any QB since 2013 (300+ dropbacks both years).

6 TD, 10 INT. Colts are 2-7.

Next: Miami, 31st in pass D. I'll rerun after.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

✅2/4

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Opus 5.5 + Gridiron Research picks for Commanders vs Giants:

• Rachaad White U 10.5 rush attempts (-109)
• Isaiah Likely O 4.5 receptions (-115)
• Antonio Williams U 3.5 receptions (+105)
• Jayden Daniels U 5.5 rush attempts (+115)

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

@HitTheOver_com @DataChefJeff These were our MCP picks for the night, that Likely line was so free

https://t.co/zUKRQiapZK

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Opus 5.5 + Gridiron Research picks for Commanders vs Giants:

• Rachaad White U 10.5 rush attempts (-109)
• Isaiah Likely O 4.5 receptions (-115)
• Antonio Williams U 3.5 receptions (+105)
• Jayden Daniels U 5.5 rush attempts (+115)

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

The Chargers are 0-8, and it isn't bad luck.

Offense, EPA per play through Week 9:
LAC 2026: -0.220
5th-worst of 448 offenses since 2013.

Negative EPA in all 8 games. 10.5% sack rate, 2nd-highest in the NFL.

Next: at Baltimore on MNF. I'll rerun after.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

@TheBetDesk We like https://t.co/oPem9eCjwr

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Michael Wilson has 16 end-zone targets. Most in the NFL by 4.

He's caught 1.

Since 2013, no receiver with 16+ end-zone targets in a full season caught fewer than 2. Wilson is there after 9 games.

2 TDs on 8.29 expected, the NFL's biggest gap. Rams at ARI Sunday.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

@WHATSTRENTING @theqbschool Fair, the 2 deep balls were real throws. But 75% of the EPA on those 3 plays came after the catch: 87 YAC vs ~21 expected. The OT TD was a 2-yd throw on 3rd & 7. Receivers beating xYAC by 66 yds isn't a repeatable QB skill.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

@WHATSTRENTING @DarkmatterVader @theqbschool One game. Take out his 3 best plays and he's at -0.28 EPA/db, worse than 2025 (-0.24). Success rate, CPOE, sack rate and aDOT all got worse. 59% of his yards came after the catch, same as last year. First half: -0.43/db. 3 big plays ≠ improvement

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Two of the NFL's six biggest TD overperformers meet tonight.

Receiving TDs vs expected, 2026:
Isaiah Likely: 6 vs 3.07 (2nd-most over)
Stefon Diggs: 5 vs 2.48 (6th)

Each has 4 targets inside the 10.

11 TDs on 5.55 expected. Pulled with NFL MCP.

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Powered by NFL MCP → https://t.co/xAUrqvEIY0

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

🚨 WHAT HAPPENED TO JJETTAS? 🚨

Justin Jefferson went from 98.9 yds/g with Kirk Cousins to 60.0 since 2025.

We pulled every target he's seen since 2020 to find out: is it him, or the QB?

Fantasy thesis at the end 🧵

[Gridiron Research @nflmcp]

Our thesis: JJ didn't fall off. His QB play did.

📈 BUY at WR2 prices from managers tired of 8-point weeks. The target share is elite and the ceiling comes back with Murray.

Just don't pay 2022 Jefferson prices.