THE MOST BEARISH MOMENT IN ETHEREUM HISTORY
last week at devcon, justin drake presented beam chain, an upgrade with a comical 5 year timeline that revealed how out of touch the EF has become
here’s why this is catastrophic for ETH (and sets up SOL to flip it this cycle) ⬇️
thought memes would have a multi-month consolidation period.
think that’s incorrect.
if memes are the “dapps” of this cycle expect them to continuously get bid the entire run.
higher.
$doge / $dog
$wif
$boden
$mew
$pups
$pepe
$popcat
$ponke
Bitcoin at 66k but onchain market is nowhere near it was last time we were at 66k
It's apparent that people are moving towards more risk off crypto (such as $BTC and $ETH)
Maybe the promised 60% BTC.D rally is taking place
memecoins that can act as NFTs and vice versa will be an ongoing trend this cycle - benefits of liquidity of token + cultural association for groups of relatable imagery
$WIF
$PUPS
$WZRD
honestly I can't help but be disgusted by some of the behavior I see and know of in the ordinals & runes ecosystem
influencers (ordfluencers?) are grifting and stealing from YOU as blatantly as I've ever seen it... and it'll be egregious with runes.
let me explain.
BTC blocktimes are ~10m long. As a result, transactions can take minutes (if not hrs - if associated fees are too low) to clear.
On low volume/activity collections, this is fine. You pay for your ordinal, wait a few minutes, and find it eventually on your wallet. Problems come when you're buying a high volume collection.
Mempool snipers (and I know for a fact that I'll get shit for this) track high volume collections and snipe transactions that are effectively guaranteed wins.
Ex. 20 pending transactions on puppets might mean a buy hasn't yet cleared @ 0.3 while the current floor is @ 0.38. This is an immediate 0.08 arbitrage that snipers will outgas the original buyer to steal from them.
This means that you can be correct on your decision to buy, send the txn on time, and have the "contract" for that ordinal LITERALLY STOLEN from you.
I'm generally pro code-is-law, but the extent to which this is done and the problems this causes are absurd.
As far as I know, this also sidesteps Magic Eden (or any marketplace) fees. Some might celebrate this, others might find this upsetting, but do recognize that ME is actively trying to combat this as noted in their docs. Forget royalties if you cared about them.
Now what makes this particularly disgusting & egregious imo, is that the snipers ARE THE INFLUENCERS. The very people who drive hype and attention to the collections are the individuals who then arbitrage their own followers by stealing their contracts and reselling the ordinals they wanted at higher prices.
I'm also aware that not all influencers participate, and that influencers who arb collection A may have never talked about collection A. I get it, I'm not blind to the reality and simply looking to create drama, but the overlap is significant.
& yes, this activity is in some ways possible on other chains, but on BTC it is most easily accomplished and most ACTUALLY GATEKEPT by the influencers many genuinely look up to.
Not to mention, these influencers are able to use their weight & connections w/ mining facilities and groups to help ensure that their txns are processed via OTC bribes. (I know this to be possible because I've seen ppl bribe miners OTC. This fee isn't necessarily paid over BTC, btw)
This will only be exacerbated by runes. Walls of pending txns will litter the rune marketplaces, and its v likely that few if any of those buys are completed by the initial buyer, but rather the mempool sniper(s) who takes the value out from under their nose.
There's a false impression that mempool sniper tools are publicly available, or that they're used by select few gigachad devs, but this is not at all accurate. There are highly gatekept and private snipers that are leagues beyond any public tooling, and exclusively left to the whims of the influencers.
You are being shilled to, stolen from, then sold the assets you tried to buy... all by the same people. There's probably a real argument in here somewhere that this is actually criminal behavior.
...
I have to add:
I LIKE ORDINALS. I LIKE RUNES. I think both are tremendous value adds to the BTC ecosystem and to crypto on the whole. I'm personally v much hoping OP_CAT is instituted and we can build out genuinely better trading experiences where garbage like this is less prevalent.
Until then, ZK is right. Collectors will prosper while most traders will get fucked.
Sadly, it is the influencers and KOLs (lol) many look up to who will be doing the fucking.
Trading is definitely PVP (and I support that!), but as far as trading goes, this is not what most people think they're signing up for. This is a step beyond trading and into what can actually be considered in some sense (if not explicitly so - I'm not an expert) theft.
I write this not to be a debbie downer or try to FUD runes - I think they're truly exciting and have already allocated quite a lot of $ towards it. I write this because I simply am astonished at the level of grifting I've seen in this eco, and how willing people are to dismiss what is genuinely fringe criminal behavior.
There is fight cardio and there is regular cardio.
Fight cardio is a different level. 99% of people would gas out in a minute of defending themselves. Once your gas tank is up, you are as helpless as floating in the middle of the ocean in sharkville.