Neil Greenberg

Former sportswriter and stats geek (not nerd) for @washingtonpost. I got science for any occasion. Postulating theorems, formulating equations.

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Using fair odds, value thresholds and exotic-wager construction, here's how I plan to attack one of the most competitive Belmont Stakes fields in recent memory. https://t.co/xpN7Bjf5P2

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

A lot of rankings, mine included, have Commanders in the bottom third. I do think they have the most upside. A lot of it is based on last year's lost season. Hard to model that IMO.

[Seth Walder @SethWalder]

ESPN's Football Power Index is out!

The Rams are No. 1, the Seahawks are No. 4 and the Patriots are...No. 14!

Projections, most likely Super Bowl matchups and more in today's story: https://t.co/a3gvnREcZ3

[Kendall Baker @kendallbaker]

One of the wildest stats in sports:

This is the 46TH CONSECUTIVE SEASON in which a former teammate of Jaromir Jagr has appeared in the Stanley Cup Final.

This year, it's Golden Knights defenseman Rasmus Andersson, who played with Jágr in Calgary in 2017-18.

[Lev Akabas @LevAkabas]

It is extremely rare for an NBA team to win the title without a player who has won MVP

Either the 2026 Spurs or 2026 Knicks will be an exception

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Young had the bat speed to hit HR. In 2026 he's finally putting enough balls in the air to access that power. The underlying data says that change is mostly real. The only thing likely to regress is the pace, not the improvement itself.

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Nats Jacob Young is hitting the ball better this season. Launch angle sweet spot percentage measures how often a batter hits a batted ball at an ideal trajectory. Amazing what happens when a team spends some money to join the 21st Century.

[Jeremy Frank @MLBRandomStats]

Hi friends, the @Cubs are hiring a data scientist for our baseball analytics team

• AI/Machine learning expertise, baseball experience = +
• Set strategy, standards & best practices
• Build tools supporting baseball decisions across many domains

https://t.co/BIxLYgcbxP

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

With no true front-runner and very little early speed, the Belmont appears likely to favor tactical runners https://t.co/oCiNsUuhg5

[Basil🧡 @LinkofSunshine]

MLB teams with pride logos:

2022: 16 teams

2024: Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Orioles, Nationals, Athletics, Rays

2025: Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Orioles, Nationals

2026: Mets, Orioles, Nationals

[Evan Abrams @EvanHAbrams]

Hurricanes are up to -155 on the moneyline in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final tonight vs. Golden Knights...

Since NHL lockout in '05, here are the biggest SC favs in G1 -- 8-0 on moneyline ⤵️

Last fav of this size to lose G1 of SC? Lightning back in 2004.

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

@moneymetalcakes it measures how much better at run production you are after taking into account league and park effects. 124 wRC+ is 24% better, 80 is 20% worse

[Benjamin Solak @BenjaminSolak]

most valuable NFL positions are commonly understood to be QB, WR, EDGE, OT, and CB

The Rams now have a Top-5 QB, a Top-5 WR, a Top-1 EDGE, and a Top-10 CB

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

It's rare to have the favorite 2x the odds of the second-best team, isn't it? And take out Patriots (and maybe 49ers) it's probably just a handful of teams over the past 40 years? My guess? Fade Rams in this market.

[Jeff Sherman @golfodds]

NFL Super Bowl updated

LAR 5/1
Sea, Buf, Bal 10/1
Det 14/1
KC, Phi, GB, LAC 16/1
NE 18/1
SF, Hou, Den 20/1
Chi, Cin, Jax 30/1
Dal 40/1
Ind 50/1
Wsh, Min 60/1
TB, Atl, NYG 80/1
Pit, Car, NO, LV 100/1
Cle, Ten 200/1
Mia, NYJ 300/1
Ari 500/1

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Prediction market turned pessimistic overnight on Dan Quinn remaining Commanders head coach past September 1, 2026. Total volume on all coaches about $1 million.

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Draft lottery tied to flops, Least flops gets +5% odds boost in lottery. Most flops, -20%. Problem solved.

[JP Finlay @JPFinlayNBCS]

The 2 biggest problems in the NBA are flopping and tanking. The league is addressing tanking, what can/will they do about flopping?

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Listening to @JunksRadio talk about when to believe in the Nats. I wrote a little about it on my Substack https://t.co/8Zhh0SJRDF

[Todd Fuhrman @ToddFuhrman]

Carolina did something historic and absolutely dismantled Montreal completing one of the most analytically lopsided series we’ve ever seen

This has more to do with Hurricanes dominance running roughshod than the east just being “weak.”

Spoiler the Sens were damn good too

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

Death, taxes and traffic on the Belt Parkway.

[Neil Greenberg @ngreenberg]

That’s about 4x an NFL side or total bet. It’s all relative I guess. Could be 30%

[Inside The Pylons @InsideThePylons]

“Player Friendly” 22% takeout rate.

I guess if you are comparing yourself with Parx and Penn National then it sounds good.

[Tangotiger 🍁 @tangotiger]

Cy Young contenders typically have a seasonal average Game Score of ~60-64 (league average is 50)

Ohtani's WORST START is a 62

Even if you cherry pick the 9 best starts from Sanchez, Skenes, Schlittler, they couldnt make that claim

https://t.co/DbfbBfEOBG