Perhaps the most interesting question is no longer what a machine can produce from our words. It is what we will learn to imagine, articulate, and take responsibility for once words can set so much in motion
Despite tariff headwinds, Vietnam→U.S. exports rose across the top 10 categories in 9M/2025 vs 9M/2024—led by textiles, machinery, and electronics. China+1 is still there. #Vietnam#Trade#Tariffs
• Good (Delayed Creation): Hiring gains of 1–23% appeared after 12–18 months
• Bad (Displacement): Layoffs surged by 38–101% in high-exposure industries
• Ugly (Coordination Failures): Quit rates fell 7–31% and job openings declined 2–45%, signaling disrupted job matching
AI ≠ instant job loss just like ATMs didn’t instantly replace tellers. For decades, teller employment rose while ATMs proliferated. The decline came years later. Tech reassigns work before it reduces it. We’re just getting started.
Claude’s economy is shifting: from augmentation (learn/iterate/get feedback) ➡️ automation (directives → completion). For the first time, automation has overtaken augmentation in usage. The assistant is becoming an agent.
Signals in the data: Google Search desktop DAU/MAU is down a few points since early 2023 (see dotted line). ChatGPT’s DAU/MAU is up and to the right. The web’s front door is changing.
A new episode covering some things we’ve been thinking about:
- Why GPT-5 got so much pushback
- Personality tuning might be the most underrated AI development
- Tech is about to get de-skilled in a big way
Co-host Charles Lee #Ai#Agents
Vietnam just launched its first Free Trade Zone in Danang—a big, ambitious bet on the future. Execution will be hard, but if it works, this could be a model for how countries accelerate into the future.
A side-by-side bar chart so you can instantly see where Vietnam is running a trade deficit/surplus; For every US$1 of Chinese intermediate imports, Vietnam often exports final goods worth a fraction of that value-add; Upgrading domestic component production would shrink the gap
Hybrid vehicles leading the charge with 80% surge, while special-purpose vehicles up 73%. Passenger cars remain dominant with 40,582 units sold (+11%)
All vehicle categories showed positive growth from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 according to Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association
Comparing foreign-invested and Vietnam-owned firms reveals distinct trends:
Foreign-invested Firms:
- Dominate high-tech sectors, with computers/electronics as their top export at nearly 70 billion
Vietnam-owned Firms:
- Excel in traditional sectors like textiles/garments
The disparity in tariffs between the United States and its key trade allies is noteworthy. For instance, China imposes tariffs of 67% compared to the US's 34%, the European Union has rates of 39% versus 20%, and Vietnam's tariffs stand at 90% against the US's 46%.
The U.S. (21.7%) and China (21.6%) are nearly tied as Vietnam's largest agricultural export market. That is why Vietnamese officials are urgently working to negotiate tariff reductions and why diversification strategies for export markets are crucial.
Golden Opportunity: Vietnamese coffee exporters are positioned to benefit from this high-price environment:
- Prices expected to remain high through Q2 2025
- Gradual decrease anticipated by late 2025
- Robusta expected to stabilize around $4,200/ton
Ho Chi Minh City's potential merger with neighboring provinces could create Vietnam's economic powerhouse:
✈️ Dual international airports
🚢 Global seaport network
💰 Asian financial hub
🛢️ Energy dominance (93% of Vietnam's oil reserves!)
🏭 High-tech manufacturing center