Gallup: % of Americans who are satisfied with the way things are going in U.S. right now
🔵 Democrats - 0% (lowest ever)
🔴 Republicans - 76%
The 76-point partisan gap is the largest Gallup has measured on this question.
Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, an longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today
This is a genuine policy catastrophe that will have generational consequences, voluntarily enacted by people who know better, allowed by Congress because it’s afraid to say no, all because the Republican Party is organized around the principle of “Daddy Trump is never wrong”
It's interesting how Kevin Kiley had a relatively underwhelming performance in 2022 given how red the generic ballot in California, but came back this year and absolutely cleared house in arguably the most left trending district in the state.
Will redo this math once all counting is done, but with around ~79% in, it looks like Placer County (Sac suburbs + Tahoe) is continuing its blue trudge:
Placer 20-24 swing*: R+2.4
CA 20-24 swing*: R+9.7
National 20-24 swing*: R+6
Placer vs. CA: D+7.3
Placer vs. National: D+3.6
Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵
This is 100% it, and it leads to the followup question “Why was Biden so unpopular when a lot of fundamentals were quite strong?”
And the answer is INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Every incumbent party around the world when the post-pandemic inflation began has lost, regardless of ideology and regardless of where inflation was at the moment of the election.
Final Harvard Youth Poll of the year is OUT
Likely voters:
🟦 Harris: 60%
🟥 Trump: 32%
Registered voters:
🟦 Harris: 53%
🟥 Trump: 32%
n = 2,001 young Americans aged 18-29 nationwide, conducted Oct 3-14
I know this is futile since people would prefer to lose their minds, but if the PA 538 polling average shifts from Harris+0.1 to Trump+0.1 in the coming days it, I cannot underscore how statistically meaningless that is
But again, I fully realize I’m shouting into the wind here