@MikeHowell80@TomFornelli My scenario is what if Iowa avoids the safety by completing the snap. But there’s just too much what-ifs to say how big of an impact the safety made. Even though the difference ultimately was two points.
@Alkemyst707@HuesmannKyle The criteria the men use is different than the woman, and it’s generally variable towards Iowa this year. OSU has an awful loss to PSU, Iowa has nothing close to that. OSU has been blown out, Iowa hasn’t. Over Iowa’s last 12, they are 10th in Torvik, OSU is 17th. It’s close.
@The_OtherET@Hassel_Chris Factoring in the 13 yard sack, that’s 17 drop backs for three yards. In other words, it would take Iowa on average 57 drop backs to achieve the 10 yards needed for a first down.
@adam_jacobi It’s definitely less interesting, but this is an odd year where #1 12-0 Georgia isn’t a lock for a spot in the four team field regardless of the SEC Title Game result. It was just two years ago that they lost this game and still won the national title.
@stillnothawkize FWIW, USC also plays LSU and Notre Dame next year. One of the hardest regular season schedules I've seen. UCLA also is racking up travel miles by going to LSU and Hawaii along with PSU and Rutgers. Maybe they'll hit 'em harder in 2025.
@thefarmerjones@alex_kirshner Better example might be last year. They flip the NW game they blew a 17-0 lead in and the same win-and-in situation applies yes? Blew out a lot of teams in 2020. 1-2 in single score games.