Nick Singer

AV Pro w/ @CTIAV. Real estate professional. Affordable housing developer. Know a bit about math and economics. Politics and policy. Organizer.

[Emma Vigeland @EmmaVigeland]

Ball knower

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

@trouble_man90 You are eternally learning the wrong lessons and obsessed with losing

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

Scalia died in February 2016. It took Obama a full month to nominate a replacement and then he used no leverage and barely lifted a finger for Garland; the party was more focused in the moment at making sure everyone understood how racist and sexist Bernie Sanders was.

Plenty of Obama aides were actually glad when Dems lost the senate in 2014 because they were sick of Harry Reid pushing Obama to be more assertive and fight more.

They lost the Senate in 2014 largely because of Obama’s capitulation to/obsession with austerity and reducing the deficit.

He constantly insisted he had no real power — Neera will probably respond by saying he had no power — which Trump has proved totally wrong.

And when RBG died in September 2020 Trump nominated ACB the next week. They play to win.

But sure, a 5 minute segment from @chrislhayes would’ve made the difference. (And I’m sure he did do a bunch actually.)

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

A look back at the stocks that traded above 10x sales at the dot-com peak.

What happened next:

– Cisco: ~25x sales, P/E above 200. Crashed -90%. Finally broke its 2000 peak in December 2025. 25 years and 8 months later.
– Intel: ~13x sales. Crashed -82%. Finally broke its 2000 peak in May 2026. Almost exactly 26 years later.
– Microsoft: ~25x sales. Crashed -65%. Took 16 years and 8 months to make a new high (October 2016).
– Qualcomm: ~30x sales. Crashed -88%. Took roughly 20 years to break even.
– Sun Microsystems: ~10x sales. Crashed -97%. Acquired by Oracle in 2009.
– JDSU: ~50x sales. Crashed -99%. Broken into pieces.
– Yahoo: ~50x sales. Crashed -97%. Sold to Verizon for a fraction.
– Lucent: ~10x sales. Crashed -99%. Eventually absorbed by Nokia.
– Nortel: ~15x sales. Bankrupt in 2009.

Then there's the famous mega survivor.

Amazon traded at ~30x sales at the peak. It still crashed -97%. The investor who bought at the top held through a 97% drawdown before eventually making money roughly a decade later.

The lesson isn't that every 10x sales stock ends in zero.

It's that even the eventual winners crash 90%+ first, and break even only after a generation.

Cisco. Intel. Microsoft. Amazon. The four greatest tech survivors of the dot-com era. Average time to break even on price alone: roughly 19 years. Inflation-adjusted, the math is uglier.

You have to be very right, very early, and willing to hold through unimaginable pain.

Most people aren't.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

1) the Republicans have been doing this for a while and won 2 out of 3 national elections

2) centrist Dems are worthless, cannot solve any problems and spend all their energy on civility while wars rage, the planet burns and inequality spawns trillionaires

[Tim @trouble_man90]

Platner didn't just come out of nowhere, his campaign is a test run for the type of brinksman-ship politics the far left has been obsessed with for years. If we want the Senate, then we have to accept their poison pill candidate because we are desperate and will do anything and that's exactly what they want to do in other races as well.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

It is also, objectively, a lot of money. If he raised at this pace for the next 100 days he'd have $20M which is more than he's raised the entire campaign (a much longer time). Why do these people lie about verifiably false stuff?

[Fred @WaywardWinifred]

These swamp lifers, accustomed to trading access for eye-watering sums of money, simply couldn't fathom that a candidate might be raising money in the form of individual contributions from hardworking people across the state of Maine.

[Julian Andreone @JulianAndreone]

Graham Platner: “Susan Collins hasn’t met a war she doesn’t like, and it’s no surprise because she’s married to a lobbyist who represents the defense industry. You don’t see as many articles about that.”

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

People honestly don't hate the oligarchy enough. It's why you can't afford anything and they get to keep the funnest things for themselves.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

He really gives up the game here. Taxpayers will subsidize these stadium deals, sometimes to the tune of 95% of the cost, and then be completely locked out of going to a game. It definitely isn't close to being "semi-free."

[Headquarters @HQNewsNow]

Q: Why do you think that the cheapest price for the NBA Finals game you're going to is $8,000? Everyday Americans can't afford these sporting events

Trump: They can watch it on television. It's semi-free to watch it on TV. That's the way life is

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

@aflicker @ModeledBehavior Prompts were simple. These days, mix of camping/hotels, these types of restaurants, etc. Idk, I'm sure there is some special way you're supposed to talk to these things but the inability to get even the most basic prompts correct didn't inspire me to keep messing around with it.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

People need to experience life and be okay with it being messy. This technocratic world where computers anticipate everything we want (and that will absolutely favor advertising or access spenders) blows.

[Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior]

The only thing keeping me from selling my AirBNB stock is the conviction that AI enabled travel agents can unlock a ton of potential when you combine AirBNBs great data and the massively heterogeneous market they operate in.

Vacations, especially that AirBNB serves, are very un-commoditized. Matching is a huge multidimensional challenge there. A desired vacation is often best described in a very qualitative way and not in a check-list. Consider:

- I want to be in a family friendly cabin on the water within 4 hours of me

- I'd like to find a beach house somewhere in South but within a short drive to a quaint town

- I want to take a hiking trip to Oregon with my family and be near nice restaurants

- I'd like to see the American west but not be too remote

These are less easily sorted with a check-list and something that an AI travel agent could be a lot of help with.

I think the focus on adjacent services is a waste of time. AirBNB should help super hosts expand by providing them capital and other resources. And if they need adjacent markets, I bet many superhosts are landlords also. They are increasingly doing longer term stays, which is a small jump from being an apartment platform.

I think they have floundered for the last few years because @bchesky is too focused on adjacent services. The opportunity is in AI enabled travel agents to replace search as well as real estate adjacent services. $ABNB

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

@aflicker @ModeledBehavior It also recommended restaurants that were closed (easily verifiable) and even got the day/date wrong on an itinerary. Claude especially maxed out constantly. GPT was better. Overall it was a B- in my book. Good start but still got way better options from using Google.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

*chef kiss*

[Tara Blume @tcblume]

ICYMI: Campaign records show Mike Mazzei’s campaign paid Roger Stone’s Florida-based political consulting firm at least $67,500 in monthly payments since last year. Stone is a close ally of Trump, and was pardoned by the president after his conviction of lying to Congress.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

@ModeledBehavior Spoken like an AirBnB investor

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

@ModeledBehavior Not what I said. I used AI to help plan a week long road/camping trip and beyond its normal mistakes, it also kept steering toward pricier, paid accommodations and that is before monetization becomes its driving feature. All this capex has to be funded somehow!

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

The most darkly funny aspect of this video is that Ivanka Trump speaks as if she went on some profound, prolonged spiritual and philosophical journey to ascertain the meaning of life, and concluded that the most elevated human state is to live on a gigantic private island in the Mediterranean, in a sprawling mansion paid for with the billions of dollars given to her husband by the Saudis and Emiratis to ensure favorable treatment by him and by her dad in their exercise of the powers of the American Presidency. Real uplifting stuff. 🙏

[Marco Foster @MarcoFoster_]

Graham Platner: “We should never tax someone into poverty. We should also still raise taxes on billionaires and corporations. Bezos wants us to think if you raise his individual taxes, that money isn’t going to pay for all the things you want. That’s why we’re not raising it just on you. We’re raising it on all 930 billionaires in the US. It’s why we’re also not just going after your income, but the wealth as well. The wealth they sit on, the wealth they never actually bring into the real world so they never pay capital gains on it, but they borrow against it so they can have liquidity. Of course Jeff Bezos is gonna tell us if we raise his taxes things won’t get better. He doesn’t want us to raise his taxes. He’s a greedy person. That makes perfect sense to me that he would say that. He’s just entirely wrong and self-serving”

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

Journalists pretending to not understand how power works is undefeated

[Sam Stein @samstein]

Are we doing a moratorium on people calling people ugly on twitter or are we not? Need to know the rules going forward and if they apply to everyone, up to and including the president.

[Nick Singer @nickforok]

One group had gotten theirs though

[Bobby Fijan @bobbyfijan]

Yes. It’s the same as Rent Control

There’s no economic argument … just demographic cohorts advocating for themselves to be able to stay.

And we are, unfortunately, fully in a political moment where everyone just wants
to get theirs, everyone else be damned.