Nick The Quant

Bringing You The Most Advanced Sports Betting Analysis | Probabilistic Modeling & Predictive Analytics To Help YOU Find Edge.

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

2026 College Basketball Sports Betting Conclusion:

This college basketball season my ensemble model performed at a 54.54% accuracy rate (majority underdogs)

Profit: +28.62 Units (+28.62% ROI)

My goal for this season was +30 Units and I was just off, but nonetheless very happy with this season's results.

To put this into perspective, over the span of just a single college basketball season, my ensemble model outperformed:

YEARLY Returns For:
Major index funds, some of the top listed hedge funds, etc. In other words, my continuous goal to use predictive analytics/probability theory to execute mathematically rational decisions for financial profit in the sports betting market continues to prove that it is a completely legitimate method of investment.

NOW ONTO THE MLB!

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

6/4/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks Results:

PICK #1: San Diego Padres Moneyline (43.49% probability)
PHI: -16.19% EV
SD: +16.99% EV
Risk: 1.67%
Potential Profit: 2.82 ❌

PICK #2: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (46.34% probability)
NY: -14.21% EV
CLE: +10.29% EV
Risk: 1.24%
Potential Profit: 1.71 ❌

PICK #3: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (42.15% probability)
MIL: -12.33% EV
SF: +9.17% EV
Risk: 0.96%
Potential Profit: 1.52 ✅

PICK #4: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (51.38% probability)
TOR: +42.84% EV
ATL: -29.08% EV
Risk: 4.37%
Potential Profit: 7.77 ✅🔥

Result: 2-2
Profit: +6.38 Units📈‼️

Today’s highest mathematical edge pick to date cashed with ease. The Blue Jays dominated the Braves 7-2 final and in hitting by a massive 16-4 advantage!

Congratulations to those that tailed!

See ya’ll tomorrow🍀

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Last pick of the day and our highest mathematical edge pick closed negatively.

My bet was at +178 and closed at +210 denoting a negative CLV of -10.32%.

[TailSlips @TailSlips]

@NickTheQuant44 Trending up 📈

https://t.co/Qjoq3K06gu

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Pick #3, the San Francisco Giants Moneyline also closed negatively.

My bet was at +159 and closing odds were +168 denoting a negative CLV of -3.36%

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Pick #2 closed positively. The Cleveland guardians. My bet was at +138 and the closing odds were at +135 denoting a positive CLV of +1.28%

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Pick #1, the San Diego Padres Moneyline closed negatively.

My bet was at +169 and closing odds were at +178 denoting a negative CLV of -3.24%

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Today’s analysis video is up:

https://t.co/79sHNoJQTd

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

6/4/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks

PICK #1: San Diego Padres Moneyline

Odds: +169
Model Probability: 43.49%
Expected Value: 16.99%
Risk: 1.67%
Potential Profit: 2.82 Units

The rest of today’s picks will be attached to this post.

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

@DanS1226687 Model is very contrarian today!

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

PICK #4: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Odds +178
Model Probability: 51.38%
Expected Value: 42.84%
Risk: 4.37%
Potential Profit: 7.77 Units

That’s all for today’s picks. I will have an analysis video posted shortly.

Enjoy!

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

PICK #3: San Francisco Giants Moneyline

Odds: +159
Model Probability: 42.15%
Expected Value: 9.17%
Risk: 0.96%
Potential Profit: 1.52 Units

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

PICK #2: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline

Odds: +138
Model Probability: 46.34%
Expected Value: 10.29%
Risk: 1.24%
Potential Profit: 1.71 Units

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Hey, man! Great to hear.

My unit size is 1% of my bankroll, that way using kelly criterion is as simple as possible. So when I say “risk 1.99%”, that means risk 1.99 units since 1 unit represents 1% of my bankroll. If a unit was 5% of my bankroll then that’d be 5x1.99 which would be a risk of 9.95 units which, in my opinion, is way too high of leverage

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

6/3/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks Results

PICK #1: New York Mets Moneyline (50.88% probability)
NYM: +13.46% EV
SEA: -17.91% EV
Risk: 1.99%
Potential Profit: 2.44 ✅

PICK #2: San Diego Padres Moneyline (41.31% probability)
PHI: -15.11% EV
SD: +16.49% EV
Risk: 1.51% ❌
Potential Profit: 2.74

Result: 1-1
Profit: +0.93 Units👏

See y’all tomorrow!

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Our second pick today, the Padres, closed negatively.

My bet was at +182 and closing odds were +194 denoting a negative CLV of -4.08%

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

First pick of the day cashes, that also being today’s highest mathematical edge pick.

This starts the day off hot and guarantees us profit for the day regardless of the Padres pick

Starting off today up 2.44 units🔥📈

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

First pick of the day, the New York Mets moneyline, closed positively.

My bet was at +123 odds and closed at +119 denoting a positive CLV of +1.83%

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

Today’s analysis video is out:

https://t.co/j65A6ynAiC

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

6/3/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks

PICK #1: New York Mets Moneyline

Odds: +123
Model Probability: 50.88%
Expected Value: 13.46%
Risk: 1.99%
Potential Profit: 2.44 Units

PICK #2: San Diego Padres Moneyline

Odds: +182
Model Probability: 41.31%
Expected Value: 16.49%
Risk: 1.51%
Potential Profit: 2.74 Units

That’s all for today’s picks. I will have an analysis video posted soon!

Enjoy!

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

@behumble1122 Thank you brother!

[Nick The Quant @NickTheQuant44]

6/2/26 MLB Sports Betting Picks Results:

PICK #1: San Diego Padres Moneyline (54.29% probability)
SD: +21.07% EV
PHI: -23.40% EV
Risk: 3.11%
Potential Profit: 3.82❌

PICK #2: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (50.42% probability)
BAL: +7.39% EV
BOS: -13.96% EV
Risk: 1.18%
Potential Profit: 1.33✅

PICK #3: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (40.18% probability)
NY: -16.44% EV
CLE: 21.75% EV
Risk: 1.78%
Potential Profit: 3.61 ✅

Result: 2-1
Profit: 1.83 Units🔥

See ya’ll tomorrow!