There's been a surprising amount of market chatter this week about a possible Fed pause in September. This speculation—not unlike the chatter about 75 bps moves a few weeks ago—could be getting ahead of itself for several reasons.
1) There's a *lot* of data between now and Sept.
US Personal Income rose less than expected
US Personal Spending rose more than expected
US real wage growth is deeply negative
How can this be?
US consumers are depleting their savings at warp speed. Savings ratio down to 4.4%, the lowest level since 2008.
NOT sustainable.
I wrote a long form note about my current view on housing.
In short - this isn't 2008, but this environment is riskier than average.
Do some prudent planning around new purchases, consider the risks, don't just chase the crowd. Good luck.
https://t.co/ag2CFBCZ6g
Globalization 2.0: The poor in rich countries transfer wealth to the rich in poor countries.
Globalization 3.0: The digital-illiterate transfer wealth to the digital-native in both rich and poor countries.
Wealth #inequality is twice the level of #income inequality: The wealthiest 10% of households hold 52% of total net wealth compared w/ 24% of total income held by the top 10% https://t.co/ElTVkwv3fm