Ninth Lattice

9th Lattice:

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

🧵The U.S. midterms are in 157 days. Want to make 51% CAGR?

Betting market says there is an 80.5% chance that Democrats win the house.

House markets indicate there is a 98.9% chance that Democrats win the house.

The only way the 98.9% house market misses is if Republicans have a national tide (correlated bias) in November and *sweep the map*. You can be the judge of those vibes😬

With no national bias (no red/blue wave), Democrats win comfortably. With a blue wave, Democrats win more comfortably. With a red wave, Republicans win a tiny majority.

So go get 51% CAGR (4x S&P returns) by buying Democrat Control contracts and holding for 157 days.

Pin this and thank me November 4th, 2026 😎

More info: https://t.co/BJ6ZDZa3h8

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

BREAKING: Republican projected seat estimate drops to lowest level in the 2026 midterm so far.

Republicans: 196
Democrats: 239

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

LATEST: Democrats chances for taking control of the Senate hits a new low of 30.2%

How do you feel about divided government?

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

LATEST: Republicans chances for retaining control of the house hits a new low of 0.2%

2027 will be a very interesting year.

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

The story of tonight's primaries: not much... Nothing has moved significantly in #midterm predictions.

Check out https://t.co/14TXJ82KPa for real-time house/senate projections. It updates every 5 seconds & reacts to live primary election results.

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

The U.S. GDP tends to grow 1% faster under Democrat presidents than Republican presidents.

Trump's second term is shaping up to be the least productive economic term of any president in modern history. Yikes!

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

Ninth Lattice is not politically aligned. We don't care at all who wins or loses the House.

We're simply pointing out what the market signals are very clearly indicating - which is that Democrats will win control.

So why not make 51% CAGR while we're at it? 🤣

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

🧵The U.S. midterms are in 157 days. Want to make 51% CAGR?

Betting market says there is an 80.5% chance that Democrats win the house.

House markets indicate there is a 98.9% chance that Democrats win the house.

The only way the 98.9% house market misses is if Republicans have a national tide (correlated bias) in November and *sweep the map*. You can be the judge of those vibes😬

With no national bias (no red/blue wave), Democrats win comfortably. With a blue wave, Democrats win more comfortably. With a red wave, Republicans win a tiny majority.

So go get 51% CAGR (4x S&P returns) by buying Democrat Control contracts and holding for 157 days.

Pin this and thank me November 4th, 2026 😎

More info: https://t.co/BJ6ZDZa3h8

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

Real talk here...

Democrats have just about the same number of Safe D seats (166) as Republicans have Safe R + Solid R + Lean R seats (182)

Democrats have a plethora of weaker R seats to go after, while Republicans don't have the same upside.

The tipping point seat is currently CT-05... I'll say that again - Connecticut!

We're looking at a safe Democrat House control forecast.

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

@USA_Polling Interesting 🤔 Because 52 seems like the D upper case.

It comes down to Texas and Iowa.

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

May 2026 U.S. Senate Probabilistic Forecast:

🔴 Republican: 50.3 (67% win)
🔵 Democrat: 49.7 (33% win)

Very little movement in Senate races, but Democrats slipped slightly this week. Volume: +$90k. Prediction markets appear overconfident of Democrats' abilities to take back the Senate.

Reminder: Republicans need 50 seats to win a majority, while Democrats need 51.

View the data yourself: https://t.co/BJ6ZDZa3h8

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

May 2026 U.S. House Predictions:

Democrat: 232
Republican: 203

🔴Safe R: 83
🔴Solid R: 73
🔴Lean R: 24
🔴Tilt R: 14
🟡Tossup R: 7
🟡Tossup: 6
🟡Tossup D: 22
🔵Tilt D: 15
🔵Lean D: 11
🔵Solid D: 18
🔵Safe D: 162

For more visit https://t.co/14TXJ82KPa

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

House Probabilistic Forecasting Model

Democrats: 236.6
Republicans: 198.4

Despite net redistricting wins for Republicans in recent weeks, Democrats are a clear favorite to win the U.S. House in November.

https://t.co/NuDcFaWAR5 for live minute-by-minute map updates.

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

Senate Probabilistic Forecasting Model

Democrats: 49.8
Republicans: 50.2

Despite Democrats making gains in Senate polling data in recent weeks, they would need a strong sweep of competitive races to claw back 51 seats.

https://t.co/EoZbQMNeMS

[Ninth Lattice @ninthlattice]

Introducing the Ninth Lattice U.S. House and Senate live prediction map.

See live congressional map predictions powered by prediction markets. Watch the map update in real time!

https://t.co/NuDcFaWAR5