Nipacrand

Dad, Small business owner, Beer lover, Semi-retired

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@RJCcapital USDA prime shitpost

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

$2M in sndk sold into low liquidity. Triggered liquidation cascade

[DYJ @davidyjeong]

tldr; the crash started on @binance

> @binance $SNDK printed its first large seller-initiated trade at 21:21:59.39 ($407K that second, $1.03M the next). @binance $MU started at 21:21:59 too
> @HyperliquidX first sweeps landed at 21:21:59.87 ($SNDK IOC, $SOXL trigger orders) and the main burst at 21:22:01.1 to 21:22:02.9: roughly ten addresses firing IOC sells across $SNDK, $SOXL, $DRAM, $SKHX, $SKHY and $MU within 1.8 seconds, then a second synchronized burst at 21:22:55.9. All IOC, none reduce-only, all opening shorts
> @binance carried the volume early: $SNDK $21.9M vs $3.1M on @tradexyz in the 21:22 minute, $MU $5.1M vs $0.3M. @HyperliquidX volume only exploded at 21:28 and 21:30 ($10.8M and $9.5M on $MU), which is the liquidation cascade

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@SpecialSitsNews Folks are linking it to the new deepseek model drop

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

dropping some hints!!! @strictrope

[Compute Desk @ComputeDesk]

Oh ! @ComputeDesk in the wild. ticker DESKB300 through the roof, and it's not stopping. Deepseek just made things worse. Wait till monday's B300 print.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@ren_stocks Perhaps, but it could also just be a crypto cross collateral liquidation.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@debt_serious Since then companies with non-code based moats (regulatory/compliance, system of record like ERP or EHR, etc.) and cyber have recovered while those like web design platforms or simple workflows have not recovered. Big L/S play.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@debt_serious Basically that AI will replace certain SaaS doing basic workflows, agents may replace seats and reduce pricing power. basically culminating in that AI will substantially reduce growth and terminal value for SaaS businesses.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@junkbondinvest How are the secured notes trading?

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@LeylaKuni Best arbitrage there is - redeem and buy public BDC if you still want exposure.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

What's going on gang?

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@stevehou I mean I already started smoking like a pack a day. What else do I need to do?

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@stonkmane69 Naw, he's in options with a Jan expiry. Twitterverse says no margin this time.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@mmiketrading Drop some TQQQ buy orders 30 and 45% below market

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@HighyieldHarry I worked at a big3 starting in the early 2010s after grad school, was a great option at the time. Would be hard pressed to recommend it now.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

How low can you go???

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

Disagree with him on many things. Mostly agree on these

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

1. Never stop exercising or learning.
2.Accept compromise to begin relationships.
3. Manifest the power of compounding.
4. Never gamble.
5. Have kids and be a good parent
6. If it flies or floats, rent it.
7. Buy half the house you can afford.
8. Art in the eye of the beholder is cheap.
9. Be thankful for and to all.
10. Be charitable.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@kieranwgoodwin Kieran,

My understanding is that this 15% debt is about 1.3B - very small slice of the most junior debt. Curious if you think this is really a show stopper. Clip from chamath on all-in pod.

[Nipacrand @nipacrand]

@acemoney21 Meta is first up I think - people are going to read a lot into Muse and engagement/monetization in their ad biz.