BofA SEES THREE FED HIKES, FLIPS OUTLOOK
Bank of America now expects three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, reversing its prior no-change forecast on strong data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh. Kalshi markets price a 25% chance of a July hike, 76% hold, and 2% cut, signaling continued uncertainty over the Fed path.
https://t.co/KAtYHiA1dR
Warren Buffett on not overcomplicating investing:
“Investing is just about assigning yourself the right story….”
Buffett says to imagine you’re an experienced journalist specializing in investigative reporting.
Your editor hands you an assignment: What is this newspaper company worth?
And you need to write the story by the end of the month. What would you do?
Buffett: “You’d go out and interview TV brokers, newspaper brokers, and owners, and you’d try to value each asset…”
That’s all Buffett does:
“That’s what I do—I assign myself the right story. It’s nothing more than that.”
Cracks in the US private credit market are widening:
Investors requested a record -$14.0 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q1 2026.
This is up +146% from -$5.7 billion in Q4 2025 and +278% higher than the -$3.7 billion in the full year 2024.
Meanwhile, just half of those requests were met, leaving ~$7.0 billion in unmet redemptions, the largest backlog on record.
Blue Owl Capital was the hardest hit, with investors requesting withdrawals of 41% from its $6.2 billion technology-focused fund and 22% from its $36 billion credit fund, among the highest quarterly redemption requests the industry has ever seen.
Following the surge in requests, Blue Owl capped withdrawals at 5% for both funds, leaving ~35% and ~17% of requests unmet, the most in the sector.
This is followed by Ares' Strategic Income Fund and Apollo's Debt Solutions Fund, both seeing ~11% in total redemption requests with ~6% unmet each.
Pressure in the private credit market is intensifying.