Jeff S.

My personal trade log for intra-day and swing trades. Tweets are personal opinions, not investment recommendations

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

UPDATE: $CRCL Filling the gap today (but there's still room down to $120-100). Before I'd start a position, I need this back over and HOLD > $150 (green line). Don't anticipate, react!

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

$CRCL - Of the recent IPO's (+ pullbacks), Circle is the one I've been waiting on. Looking for a continuation down to $140s Gap Fill (and deeper $120 Demand+ Channel bottom). Then, and ONLY then, will I build a long-term swing position. Ideally on break/retest over $140

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 5: Showing TOS chart for signal, TV for execution:

🟢 $ES - Other than being a 3am trade (which I took), this was very clean and easy. T1 and T2 both hit
🔴 $ES - Entry 2 mins before C.Sentiment news which then stopped me out before hitting T1. Need to plot news events!!

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 4 forward testing: Only 1 potential trade (which I missed) on $ES..hit both targets of 1SD and VWAP final

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Update on $RGTI...per plan, started to build position prior to ani $17 break ($16.30 avg). Popped at the open today into that level and failed, now breaking through. Would love to see to close > $17.30 (and then gap up tomorrow). Still have 1/2 left to add

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Update on $RGTI...per plan, started to build position prior to ani $17 break ($16.30 avg). Popped at the open today into that level and failed, now breaking through. Would love to see to close > $17.30 (and then gap up tomorrow). Still have 1/2 left to add

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

🚨Moved $RGTI to my top watch. Series of higher lows forming, VERY defined $14-15 Demand level that was broken on high volume and now retesting, inverse H&S pattern against that Demand, high ADR (it can move) & strong MOMO over 90 days. Entry on $17 break, T1= $21, T2=$30

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Pullback on $CRWV after $150 rejection...if this $121-125 Demand holds, I'll watch for a break over $133 to base a long on.

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 3: 2 trades (still having TOS/TradingView conflicting VWAP prints)

🟢 $ES - (B-) - Not fully extended past 2SD's, only 1 contract
🔴 $NQ - (B+) - Executed properly off TOS chart but conflicting levels with TV (missed first target due to this).

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

During backtesting, I took screenshots of the daily price action to review. In doing so, I noticed that days where price action is grinding in the upper deviations, those signals don't revert back to VWAP. Today was similar so guess what...didn't trade those later setups

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

🧠 As I'm looking to develop new trade ideas, I wanted to share the rough framework I personally take. Here are my steps and notes on a new VWAP Standard Deviation + MOMO strategy I've been thinking through....

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

4. Back Test: Manually back test for 30-60 days to get a quick sense of win rate, number of trade opportunities, Risk:Reward etc. Assuming initial back test looks good, consider deep dive of 1 year. I still like manual testing, but it's more efficient to create a bot/system.

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

@Qullamaggie @PradeepBonde Update on $KTOS - Per plan, I'm trimming 1/2 my size at $68 after this strong 3 day push ($61.14 avg), and will trail the rest until the first daily close under the 10MA.

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

If you trade @Qullamaggie or @PradeepBonde
Hight Tight Flag (HTF) setups, here are some to study. All have ADR > 5%, basing against rising 10/20SMA's, strong 30 or 90 day momentum.

$KTOS looked best, entered today @ $61.14 on opening push post +earnings, stop break even

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

@Samundana Not abandoned, but cut WAY back (esp. low floaters)

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 2: 2 for 2, 1 in premarket, 1 post CPI data (both types of entries I didn't focus on in backtesting

🟢 $ES - Grade (B+) - Premrkt before news, execution was good
🟢 $ES - Grade (B-) - TradingView & TOS indicators weren't aligned (due to VWAP calc).

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 1: 3 for 3 forward testing a VWAP SD+Momo I mentioned last week....

1⃣ - $NQ - Execution (B-): Late 2nd entry
2⃣ - $ES - Execution (A-): Entry was good, stop at B/E but target 2 hit
3⃣ - $ES - Execution (A-): Half size due to mid-day strength, VWAP 2nd target was hit

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 1 - 2nd trade, ES this time. Much better execution of the entry (2 positions). Hit first target at 1 deviation, stop on 2nd portion at B/E+0.50. Market might range today due to CPI tomorrow. GRADE: B+ (need to work through trailing either at B/E or below structure)

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

5. Forward Test: I'll trade for ~2 weeks with very small size. I prefer actual trading with money vs. paper trading since emotions/decipline can be measured. Success forward testing isn't about money, it's about sticking to your entry/exit criteria.

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

Day 1 of forward testing on NQ. 2 lots (poor avg due to late add...this is why I practice execution). Took first target, then moved to B/E but VWAP reversion is final target (and just hit). Not about the $$$, it's about the execution (B- grade in my books)

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

3. Entry/Exit Criteria - On 2 min candles, wait for 2+ Momo candles to exceed 2nd deviation, then when momo flips (arrow in my indicator), enter on the next bar with stop over the signal bar. 1st target = 1 StadDev, 2nd is VWAP (potential runners on opposite side of VWAP

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

2. Create Indicator (If needed) - Use Use ChatGPT to create a 2 SD VWAP indicator in TOS or TradingView. Prompting is best when you ask VERY SPECIFIC questions, expect errors. I'm also applying a multi-timeframe Stoch. indicator I've had success with (coded by ChatGPT)

[Jeff S. @nitrotrader]

1. Define Edge - In futures, +90% of all volume is between 2 standard deviations of VWAP (ES and NQ), so identify times when price is outside of 2nd devation.

Identify when momentum is peaking in that range, then look for mean reversion trade back to 1SD and VWAP.