Nitin Beri

[Dr. Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney]

India has mounted a credible campaign to push Pakistan back onto the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) gray list, aided by its growing influence within the watchdog, including the appointment of an Indian official as FATF vice president. New Delhi plans to present fresh evidence of continued Pakistani state support for terrorist groups.

However, given the geopolitics, re-listing Pakistan remains an uphill battle. While FATF decisions require broad consensus, Pakistan retains backing from key members such as China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The watchdog focuses on compliance with anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing standards — not the presence of terrorists. Unless India can demonstrate that Pakistan has systematically backslid on the banking and legal changes that led to its U.S.-backed removal from the gray list in 2022, FATF is more likely to maintain enhanced monitoring than reimpose gray-list status.